$3.40 NLHE STT: QJo bubble postflop

[FastandFurious]

poker stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100.00/t200.00 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 1224525
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: t3050.00 15.25 BBs - VPIP: 13, PFR: 11, 3B: 4, AF: Infinity, hands: 407
Hero (BTN): t4997.00 24.98 BBs - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 2.6, Hands: 5033
SB: t2620.00 13.10 BBs - VPIP: 18, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: 1.7, Hands: 120
BB: t2833.00 14.16 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 2.3, Hands: 128

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with Q :diamond: J :heart:
1 fold, Hero raises to t500, 1 fold, BB calls t300

Flop: (t1100) J :spade: 9 :spade: 7 :spade: (2 players)
BB bets t2308.00,

BB is an unknown villain but tends to be playing quite tight.. His Fold SB vs steal % = 100 & Fold BB vs steal % = 43 (filtered by 4 to 6)..

Anyway, would u go broke here with top pair good kicker? What about AJ (TPTK).. I'm not sure if I have the needed equity to go broke here ICM wise..

 

[WiZZiM]

I think your steal is fine preflop.

This is a sticky postflop situation. We have to be ahead here the vast majority of times. But this is just such a wet board that even vs draws/combo draws we may not have enough equity to continue. I'd assume we only have 50-60% equity here tops vs his shoving range. We can probably exclude some of the made hands out of his range, like higher flushes, as i doubt anyone is just open shoving them.

So we're probably ahead here on average, but there is still two cards to come. So calling and winnign this all in means we are now ITM with a huge chip lead. Calling and losing leaves us in last place, but we still have enough chips to do some damage. But we also have to take into account that we're getting very poor odds to make this call. And also, the stack dynamic is changed severly by losing this hand. We are in first place, so we can pretty much do whatever we want right now, which makes us want to avoid big all in decisions like this one, i'd much prefer playing in smaller pots with a bigger stack.

This is a tough one, i'll get back to it tommorow with a little more analysis as i don't have time right now.

 

[DetroitJimmy]

Steal PF is fine. I think postflop I run away to fight another day though. Then again this is pokerstars so don't antes come into effect next round? Hell I dunno but if I were playing FT structure I fold. Nothing he is shoving is too far behind TPGK.