$3.30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Rebuy: 2nd Nuts - What does Villain Have?

[theANMATOR]

Level 4 of 15 blinds 120/240 30ante
I have 111.4 bb main villain has 80.47.
Starting stack was 100bb. For simplicity I will use BBs for this hand analysis.

I have villain marked as a fish calling station with any pair regardless of final board runout, and he will often shove with any nutted draw on flops and turns. Roughly 650 hands on him, however I don't have his stats.

He opens from LJ 2bb I call in CO with All other players fold.

The flop comes
Villain cbet 2.14bb into 6.5bb pot. I decide right away I wanted to raise because of the wet board - and based on my read the villain will come along with any one pair.
I'm consciously aware of the heart draw but I'm not overly concerned at this point.

I decide since we are deep to raise a little larger and to take advantage of the villains tendency. I raise to 9.5bb and he makes the call pretty much instantly.

Since he decided not to 3bet - I put villain on a one pair hand. This might be optimistic, but based on my historical read on this player I'm pretty strong in my conviction he does not have two hearts. The range I'm thinking is roughly Q/J Q/T A/J A/T, possibly any 9, A/Q, KQ.

The turn is pretty yucky

Board now reads

At first I thought the only redeeming point of this turn card was the fact it was off-suit, but after I thought about it for just a moment, I considered that actually a bad thing because I don't think the villain is chasing hearts, I had him solidly on a pair and possibly a Queen, so if this card was a heart it might be enough to get him to fold here on the turn if I decided to bluff at it.

As expected the villain bets big on turn 22bb into the 25.5bb pot. Pretty sickening - he is repping certainly a Queen, which is REALLY great for me - I'm good at hand reading, and good at spotting tendencies in my opponents. And it REALLY SUCKS because the exact "range" I've put him on is the exact hand he most likely has and it is crushing me.

I reluctantly make the call - knowing I'm folding 98% of rivers, but I'm reserved to the chips I have left, still a lot of ammo to stay relevant and competitive in this event.

The river is - not terrible.

Final board

Our hand is the 2nd nuts


Villain jams his remaining 48bb and I'm certain we have the winning hand.


Care to range the villain based on the brief but solid information I provided?

 

[300HPGOD]

To attempt to answer your range question, I'd have to go off how you describe villain and probably say it is a two pair hand or it is a straight. I doubt villain would only overcall your raise on the flop if they had a set plus you have set blockers unless villain specifically called your flop bet with 99 and then hit set. The river would not make me worry too much about range there as there are so many worse hands than a boat that this player might jam river with that I would be snapping it off with the thinking if you got JJ then you just do but Im not folding here.

I want to bring up your turn thinking though since I am not sure I agree with it. You wrote I reluctantly called but know I am folding 98% of rivers. If that is the case, why are you calling the turn bet which is almost a pot sized bet? You are calling there because you think villain is full of it enough times where your two pair are ahead. You couldnt honestly be calling thinking you were getting the right price to draw to a 4 outer or some possible chop outs when the villain has Qx. So if you are calling since you think they are full of it and you're good enough of the time then how many cards will come on the river that change nothing like offsuit 2-6? You have to be prepared to call those types of rivers as well if you are calling an almost pot turn. I would focus on that with what you wrote in this hand since that seems like flawed logic to me. I would be highly considering folding to that turn bet. You wrote it yourself that after the flop thats what you thought villain had and then the turn completed it.

 

[theANMATOR]

If that is the case, why are you calling the turn bet which is almost a pot sized bet? You are calling there because you think villain is full of it enough times where your two pair are ahead. You couldnt honestly be calling thinking you were getting the right price to draw to a 4 outer or some possible chop outs when the villain has Qx. So if you are calling since you think they are full of it and you're good enough of the time then how many cards will come on the river that change nothing like offsuit 2-6? You have to be prepared to call those types of rivers as well if you are calling an almost pot turn. I would focus on that with what you wrote in this hand since that seems like flawed logic to me. I would be highly considering folding to that turn bet. You wrote it yourself that after the flop thats what you thought villain had and then the turn completed it.

Thanks for the reply HP. Yes - my turn call and logic was not "optimal". I certainly was not getting the correct odds, however - I do not make decisions based on math, rather the situation strongly dictates my actions.
This might be a good spot to point out - a player that we know factually who makes decisions based on math can be exploited. For instance in this exact spot in villains position - if we know our opponent played a GTO math based style, we could bluff bet large (similar to villains bet sizing) with any hand to get the math based decision maker to fold all but nutted hands.
Not making math based decision might be illogical to a lot of players, but I think making decisions based on math is not entirely logical all the time either.
Also - as you mentioned - there was a slim possibility villain was full of it, although I put that at a low possibility, like under 10%.

I did think I was beat here on the turn, but I figured I had 7 outs, any JTQ. Yeah I know, calling a very large bet only for the possibility of a chop is not ideal, but here I thought it wasn't terrible. Also - as I mentioned I would still have a reasonable chip stack to continue to play a legitimate range. I viewed this spot as worth the risk.

My main consideration on the turn was would I still have ample chips to play poker. If this decision to call on the turn had put me under 30bb that would have strongly influenced my decision to fold.

 

[theANMATOR]

After re-reading my reply to HP I guess what I'm really saying is villain didn't bet BIG enough on the turn to get me to fold. LOL So bad!

 

[eetenor]

Level 4 of 15 blinds 120/240 30ante
I have 111.4 bb main villain has 80.47.
Starting stack was 100bb. For simplicity I will use BBs for this hand analysis.

I have villain marked as a fish calling station with any pair regardless of final board runout, and he will often shove with any nutted draw on flops and turns. Roughly 650 hands on him, however I don't have his stats.

He opens from LJ 2bb I call in CO with All other players fold.

The flop comes
Villain cbet 2.14bb into 6.5bb pot. I decide right away I wanted to raise because of the wet board - and based on my read the villain will come along with any one pair.
I'm consciously aware of the heart draw but I'm not overly concerned at this point.

I decide since we are deep to raise a little larger and to take advantage of the villains tendency. I raise to 9.5bb and he makes the call pretty much instantly.

Since he decided not to 3bet - I put villain on a one pair hand. This might be optimistic, but based on my historical read on this player I'm pretty strong in my conviction he does not have two hearts. The range I'm thinking is roughly Q/J Q/T A/J A/T, possibly any 9, A/Q, KQ.

The turn is pretty yucky

Board now reads

At first I thought the only redeeming point of this turn card was the fact it was off-suit, but after I thought about it for just a moment, I considered that actually a bad thing because I don't think the villain is chasing hearts, I had him solidly on a pair and possibly a Queen, so if this card was a heart it might be enough to get him to fold here on the turn if I decided to bluff at it.

As expected the villain bets big on turn 22bb into the 25.5bb pot. Pretty sickening - he is repping certainly a Queen, which is REALLY great for me - I'm good at hand reading, and good at spotting tendencies in my opponents. And it REALLY SUCKS because the exact "range" I've put him on is the exact hand he most likely has and it is crushing me.

I reluctantly make the call - knowing I'm folding 98% of rivers, but I'm reserved to the chips I have left, still a lot of ammo to stay relevant and competitive in this event.

The river is - not terrible.

Final board

Our hand is the 2nd nuts


Villain jams his remaining 48bb and I'm certain we have the winning hand.


Care to range the villain based on the brief but solid information I provided?

Thank you for posting

Here is an exploit perspective of this situation

There are times we want to play NL like PLO. We call and see what the turn brings. With no blockers this is that time. Why? this V will shove big draws- this board has several- this V overplays their hands so we still get value if 2 pair is good on the turn and if we get this runout we still stack the V on the river because we can call the turn bet without risking much of our stack.

Delayed turn raise is a fine play in this spot on a turn blank.

Hope this helps

 

[Endwarfin]

Pre Flop: Because we have a read and position I am 3betting his min open 100% with you hand in this spot.

Flop: V c-bets 1/3 pot. Assuming his bluffs are only his Ax+ hearts, Jx of hearts, Qx(off 1 heart), 9hX and the rest is value of at least pair and nut draw.

Easy raise. Easy call with a lot for villain.
(If we had 3 bet pre villain should have a lot less off suit combos and over pairs but still enough draws to be targeting a raise)

***Villain Doesn't Shove Flop***
Based on our read - I think we can eliminate a lot of pure draws. This screams villain has value with a redraw.


Turn: Villain leads almost pot. If villains only bluffs are pair+ good heart draws and his value is two pair+ You actually have 34% equity. This becomes a call.

If villains worst value is sets this should be a fold.

A number of straights here like with flush draws that would happily lead wouldn't be here if we 3bet preflop. I think this is generally a fold spot because our read is Villain Shoves his strong draws.

As played snap call the river.

 

[perrywh]

My guess he had AJ! You said he was a fish! Lol!

 

[Endwarfin]

Please update! Do you remember what he had?