$3.30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked Rebuy: Should I hero call with 2nd pair?

[Wickedestjr]

About 90 minutes away from making the money. Average chip count is about 11 or 12k. I have 19k, villain has about 39k. I just joined the table and after several hands I can see that villain is reasonably active but we don't really have reads on each other yet. There are eight players at the table when this hand started. I was dealt QJo.

ante- 40
SB- 200
BB- 400
Villain- limps in for 400
UTG+1- fold
MP- fold
HJ- fold
Hero- raise to 1200
BU- fold
SB- fold
BB- fold
Villain- calls 1200

Flop: 68Jr [3320]

Villain- checks
Hero- bets 1660
Villain- calls 1660

Turn: 68JKr [6640]

Villan/Hero- checks

River: 68JK4 [6640]

Villain- bets 4500
Hero- ???


Any thoughts? Thanks in advance!

 

[horizon12]

Fold, you not have right pot-odds for call, also i am not think that this bluffing, him bet very big on wet board, i think he have set or two pair..

 

[WiZZiM]

these spots are read dependant, without reads it makes it hard. Having said that, since he's a decent way over the average chip stack, it's more likely that he is on the aggressive side (since tight players need to be card racks to get in these spots). So i'm leaning towards a call here for that reason alone, plus the fact if we lose this pot we're still around average chip stack so theres not a huge downside to this call down.

 

[ConDeck]

From the info given I think I call here like 70% of the time, but as stated it is villain dependant... As stated you still in good position here, Villain going to be on the aggro a bunch and your check back on the turn keeps in his entire range that calls the flop, inc floats, therefore he bluffs the river often... You actually induce this river bet here.

Im OK with a call or a fold here but lean towards call. I actually prefer a bet on the turn.

 

[rw11687]

I would be calling. This feels like a middle pair that didn't hit a set, or maybe some type of suited connectors that gives villain a mid pair. His play is passive throughout and I think he read your check on the turn as extreme weakness. Figured the flop bet was nothing more than a continuation.

To avoid this in the future, I would lead out on the turn as well. No reason to assume he hit the K given the play to that point.

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

Im OK with a call or a fold here but lean towards call. I actually prefer a bet on the turn.

I prefer betting the turn as well. I don't mind a check on the turn, but it would be done with the purpose of getting a bluff (or bet w/ weaker hand) out of villain on the river for me to call.

 

[Wickedestjr]

Thanks for the advice everyone!

I thought calling the river bet was the best decision for me for the same exact reasoning that you all mentioned. There was a very good chance, in my mind, that he saw my turn check as weakness and decided to bluff me.

He might have called my flop bet with AK, KQ, or KJ, but I actually wasn't afraid of the King turn because the overall play of the hand doesn't make sense for AK or KQ. I checked the turn because I was afraid he had a higher jack like KJ or AJ and I didn't think I would get a call from anything worse than QJ. But now that I think about it, he might call a second bet with a 6 or an 8. The board is too wet to give him a free card. I have an awful habit of checking the turn too much... Thanks everyone!

I ended up making the call and he turned over 57o for a river straight. It was a tough decision because his big river bet looked like he was trying to scare me.

 

[Wickedestjr]

The villain actually ended up winning this tournament...

If I were to bet the turn, how much should I bet there? I don't want to risk too much, but do you think 1/3 Pot is appropriate for scaring an aggressive player off of an open ender?

 

[ConDeck]

The villain actually ended up winning this tournament...

If I were to bet the turn, how much should I bet there? I don't want to risk too much, but do you think 1/3 Pot is appropriate for scaring an aggressive player off of an open ender?

I would prefer about 60% here! like 3800-4500. Villain has shown an ability to call wide so you get value from his draws and weaker holdings when he makes the mistake of calling or take the pot right there, wheras you only get action on the river when he improves his hand.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Preflop: I'm not sure I like raising to isolate the limpers here, especially when it is a big stack early position limper who's limp/calling range likely crushes us. But it's a marginally OK play. only because you have the button.

Flop: obviously betting the flop is best. We have the lead, we have top pair. no brainer.

Turn: the king hits his perceived range, and he checks to you, and as you stated you don't get called by very many worse hands when you bet the turn here, so I don't mind checking the turn....but the only reason to check the turn is to keep his entire range in and pot control while inducing some bluffs. Our hand is not strong enough to warrant 3 streets value...so if we bet the turn, we'll have to find a fold if he leads the river. if we check back the turn, then we must call a lot of river bets.

River: ideally we set up our river plan when we make our turn decision. so for me....there would be no decision on this river. I checked the turn with the intention of under-repping my hand and picking off river bluffs. The only card that might make me re-think my river plan would be another overcard (in this case, only the Ace would scare me) but even then I'd have to take a read and call off some of the time.

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

Preflop: I'm not sure I like raising to isolate the limpers here, especially when it is a big stack early position limper who's limp/calling range likely crushes us. But it's a marginally OK play. only because you have the button.

I think isolating is fine here and would like to get a better understanding of your logic behind this statement. In my experience limp/callers are hardly ever playing a tight enough range that would be considered "crushing" QJo and are typically terrible players that will fold easily to a c-bet if they don't catch any piece of the flop.

Now if villian was short-stacked I might agree that trying to isolate is probably not be the best idea without any reads.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I think isolating is fine here and would like to get a better understanding of your logic behind this statement. In my experience limp/callers are hardly ever playing a tight enough range that would be considered "crushing" QJo and are typically terrible players that will fold easily to a c-bet if they don't catch any piece of the flop.

Now if villian was short-stacked I might agree that trying to isolate is probably not be the best idea without any reads.

I guess...since you point it out you are right...QJo isn't really crushed by the limp/call range. It's just not a solid favorite, and will frequently be dominated when we make a hand and the limper sticks around. A lot of KQ/KJ/AJ type hands are in that range and much fewer hands that we dominate. But vs the entire range QJo does ok...when you factor in position. That's why I said I think it's s marginally ok play.

I've personally not had good results playing marginal hands this way against early position limpers. Mid/late position limpers I've had a little better results. Add to the equation that he's a big stack who we know nothing about and for me, it's a pass. In general I find that players with big stacks are rarely the types to simply fold to a cbet. They usually get their big stack by being a LAG or a calling station who got lucky. I just don't see a ton of straightforward nits with big stacks who limp call UTG then check fold the flop.