$3.30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Calling or not an all-in - in bubble hand

[vegasjj]

Thirteen people left in the game, 12 people are ITM.

iPoker - $3.00+$0.30|<> NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

DagobertSuck (BTN): 35,632 (VPIP: 26.98, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, hands: 63)
naddya (SB): 18,541 (VPIP: 12.36, PFR: 10.98, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 89)
vegas88jj (BB): 8,320
Seger123 (UTG): 53,362 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
gledhill79 (MP): 11,580 (VPIP: 36.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 25)
LucentTwo (CO): 9,600 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)

6 players post ante of 120, naddya posts SB 600, vegas88jj posts BB 1,200

Pre Flop: (pot: 2,520) vegas88jj has T♠ A♠

fold, fold, LucentTwo raises to 9,480 and is all-in, fold, fold, vegas88jj calls 7,000


I really did think long and hard - had a hell of a time deciding what to do.

BB is pretty big - the all-in guy is short = I am his best target = so he can be fairly wide range...
Also with these blinds will I get an opportunity as good as this one?
On the other side the all-in guy was a pretty tight player, he does have a hand - it is not air...
OR I can hope that 2 other players get into a fight and someone will be out before me - but everyone is tight around bubble - so it is not likely...

What is the best action and what is the thought behind it?

For extra info I am attaching the chip position of top 10 players.

 

[WiZZiM]

Snap call.. call much wider here since were one of if not the shortest stack remaining and were facing a guy who is also very short.. you are his biggest target but he is also your biggest target to call wider than normal against.

Good call. Unlucky on being the bubble boy

 

[vegasjj]

Snap call.. call much wider here since were one of if not the shortest stack remaining and were facing a guy who is also very short.. you are his biggest target but he is also your biggest target to call wider than normal against.

Good call. Unlucky on being the bubble boy

LOL - who says I was bubble boy - I have not posted yet the rest of the hand

 

[Shumkoolie]

Possible level here. I don't think we have all the information (purposely).

You only posted the top 10 stacks - we don't know what 11-13 have (you are one of those three).
As the tournament is playing hand for hand since it's the money bubble, it's possible you may have additional information from the other table.

You did mention you were giving this a lot of thought, and in a vacuum, it's a very tough decision, because shover is tight, and his/her shoving range (I think) is any pair or a big Ace. (S)he won't be shoving with a suited connector in all likelihood here, so you're either in a race or badly dominated, and most likely are behind most of the time.

However, given the dynamics of bubble play and that we don't know what the other two bottom stacks have, here's something else to consider.

If you fold, you're likely to get into the money because one of the other shorter stacks probably has anywhere from 1-3 bb's left and if you're objective is to cash, then you're folding. But, if you're objective is to win the tournament, you're more likely to play thinner edges and might call the shove.

The correct play is dependent on your mentality about whether your objective is to cash or to win the tournament.

I don't love a call here, because I'd rather be shoving this hand and forcing a hand like AJ/AQ to fold, which is in villain's shoving range. Plus, we also don't know your stats so we don't know if you have a tight/loose image at the table either.

I'm more inclined to fold because more often than not, I think I am behind here and need to get very lucky.

 

[WiZZiM]

Possible level here. I don't think we have all the information (purposely).

You only posted the top 10 stacks - we don't know what 11-13 have (you are one of those three).
As the tournament is playing hand for hand since it's the money bubble, it's possible you may have additional information from the other table.

You did mention you were giving this a lot of thought, and in a vacuum, it's a very tough decision, because shover is tight, and his/her shoving range (I think) is any pair or a big Ace. (S)he won't be shoving with a suited connector in all likelihood here, so you're either in a race or badly dominated, and most likely are behind most of the time.

However, given the dynamics of bubble play and that we don't know what the other two bottom stacks have, here's something else to consider.

If you fold, you're likely to get into the money because one of the other shorter stacks probably has anywhere from 1-3 bb's left and if you're objective is to cash, then you're folding. But, if you're objective is to win the tournament, you're more likely to play thinner edges and might call the shove.

The correct play is dependent on your mentality about whether your objective is to cash or to win the tournament.

I don't love a call here, because I'd rather be shoving this hand and forcing a hand like AJ/AQ to fold, which is in villain's shoving range. Plus, we also don't know your stats so we don't know if you have a tight/loose image at the table either.

I'm more inclined to fold because more often than not, I think I am behind here and need to get very lucky.

Too short to fold and were clearly either last or second to last. Barring there being another stack of like 1k chips that we dont know about. I assumed hes in last place making this a call.

While its true that shoving you have two options to win the pot. You need to make a lot of light shoves which is risking a lot when you are very short. And when called you are always behind. Whereas calling here when were clearly ahead (I dont agree with you ranges. People wont fold a7s here that short yes he looks nitty but its only 49 hands and players at this level always fall in love with jamming ax type hands way too much) is one big risk that assures that we cash if we win it. So calling apporpriately wide is just as important as shoving really wide. Since theres 12 left we also have to assume a top heavy payout structure if this is a sattelite it obviously changes things.

Op- to clear this all up. Post payout structures any reads you have and all the stack sizes. The correct decision heavily depends on these factors. But with info given this is an easy call. Its a question of how you percieve ranges I guess.

 

[horizon12]

Call and hopping on coinflip ... Here villain range like Ax , all pairs, broadway and some suited connectors ( T9s JTs 78s ) , So easy call our 3.4 M

 

[PokerFunKid]

I would base that on more things, what is the price of the min cash? Howmany chips has the person in 12th place? If someone is hanging around 1-2bb it might change my decision. He has a VPIP of 14 so his range tight. Since it is a $3,30 and only 12 players get paid i asume the min cash isn't a crazy amount of money. So i would call here and hope you're not behind. You've not much big blinds to play with and this isn't a bad spot to shove for you.
Now i'm wondering, what did he have?

 

[trent32la]

Call, a normal 8bb CO shoving range for your opponent is going to be something like 22+ Ax+ K9+ QT+ JT T9 98 > which we are definitely ahead of. Considering its a $3.30 tournament there isn't much point in going for a small min cash.

 

[vegasjj]

Thank you all for the responding - and I am adding here some more info as some of you asked for.

1. I was the shortest stack - marginally but I was in 13th place. So fair number of players were close, the chip count I posted was 2 hands later and yes I have removed the relevant people
2. This was a special tournament with $500 grtee + top 2 getting an iPhone6. 12th place was getting $12.50 - I don't have a pic of full payout structure but I am posting below what I have.

Looking forward to more replies.

I will post the outcome tomorrow.

 

[jj20002]

this is like a tv show and when we are expecting to see the end suddenly is a sign that reads TO be continued...

there is info missing here, and the most important is the other table, you are in the BB so you would have 8 hands more and if somebody busts you are in, so another info is how were the people playing, they were tightened because the bubble or they were playing a little loose, and the other thing is about your villain, maybe he lost half stack in the past hands so he could be eager to recover or on tilt, also info about the game of the BU and SB as well as yours in recent hands, maybe he felt all of you were too tight and folding everything and for this reason he was thinking he could steal some blinds with any two

now, ATs against a player who is shoving with a enough stack to survive the bubble but smaller than the three players behind him, and more than that is that you say he is a tight player, the risk is too high and i could bet he had a better hand than yours preflop, what was it? a better Ax? or a pair? or was he tired and wanted to bust and went allin with J5o!!!

i put my money that this movie has a happy ending so let´s wait for tomorrow and chapter II (and hopefully if some CC friend is going to play tomorrow with her new brand iphone)

 

[WiZZiM]

If he leaves our crucial info he only hurts himself... withour info you will get a wide array of answers that stem from personal biases. For me I just think about defualt calling ranges or rejam ranges. But with more info and reads I might tweak it wider or tighter.. here with info kow were in last place facing another stack who is also very short. Its a very easy call for me. But one of my biases is that I think players here will almost always kam ax meaning we domiante a large portion of his range.

This could be wrong. But again with the lack of info in the op he onlt hurts himself as the answers are going to be wode and varied.

Hope this helps op for any hand you post in the future.

 

[sryImPro]

you said that it was a tight player you should play against with but it doesn't worries me a lot because you had like 6BBs and the fact is that you had a pretty strong hand in that moment. His way of thinking was exactly that, to put you on pressure but i hope you didn't let him do it Go hard or go home, nothing less Can't wait to see a real outcome

 

[vegasjj]

Thanks again for all the answers.
Below is the full story, and as you can tell - it also was a wild ride.

I did try to post as much as I could of the relevant info, of course cannot replicate the flair of the game - but that also does tend to be a bit changing at bubble time.
I was in 13th place - he was in 12th. My read was that he would make that play with fairly wide holdings where some will be a race and some I will dominate and very few he will dominate. Giving-up the BB would have placed me way shorter then anyone else and I felt it is real questionable if I would get a better spot. Top prizes also very attractive.
I made this post trying to find out if that was a dead wrong thinking or not - so I may draw on the feedback in the future.
It is an interesting and relative frequent situation... Of course the outcomes will vary wildly, the opponent's hand will vary in the first place - but it really is a question about the decision.

iPoker - $3.00+$0.30|<> NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

DagobertSuck (BTN): 35,632 (VPIP: 26.98, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 63)
naddya (SB): 18,541 (VPIP: 12.36, PFR: 10.98, 3Bet Preflop: 8.00, Hands: 89)
vegas88jj (BB): 8,320
Seger123 (UTG): 53,362 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
gledhill79 (MP): 11,580 (VPIP: 36.00, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 25)
LucentTwo (CO): 9,600 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)

6 players post ante of 120, naddya posts SB 600, vegas88jj posts BB 1,200

Pre Flop: (pot: 2,520) vegas88jj has T♠ A♠

fold, fold, LucentTwo raises to 9,480 and is all-in, fold, fold, vegas88jj calls 7,000

Flop: (17,720, 2 players) 9♥ A♣ 4♠

Turn: (17,720, 2 players) J♠

River: (17,720, 2 players) K♥

vegas88jj mucks T♠ A♠ (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 32%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
LucentTwo shows K♠ K♣ (Three of a Kind, Kings) (Pre 68%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
LucentTwo wins 19,000

 

[RamdeeBen]

Even on the bubble, I'm assuming we're one of if not the short stack this is a call.

 

[WiZZiM]

Dont second guess it. You just ran into the top of his range.. cooler.

Told you that you were the bubble boy

 

[vegasjj]

Dont second guess it. You just ran into the top of his range.. cooler.

Told you that you were the bubble boy

lol - yea you sure did

 

[sryImPro]

You played that hand well, i would do the same thing because top 2 places were too far to wait for a better hand to make a move so it was a bad time to double your stack up. What really hurts there is that river, two outers after flop and there was nothing you could do about it. When it comes to bubble stage, it really comes to who is luckier not who is a better player so no regrets mate, gg and little more luck next time

 

[jj20002]

wow i expected the villain to have a better hand than hero´s preflop but not a monster,

i was thinking about something like 88, 99, TT or JJ or maybe AK, AQ because holding a mosnter he could open to 2.5-3.0 k and see some action however the fact is he was a shortie and a shove in the bubble with kings was a smart move,

by one hand villain avoided the bigstacks postflop right in the bubble (and seeing and Ace in the board!!) and by the other hand villain could camouflage his monster and set a trap for a shortie in the BB holding an unaware Ax (last line just kidding!)

next time better luck, very unpleasant to be the bubble girl and finish so close to great prizes!