$3.30 NLHE MTT: Calling big stack shove raise

[limakpl]

HI guys what do you think of my play here .
After an hour in a regular MTT
Table is not very tight, players sometimes show down KTs small suited aces etc. small pairs from any positions.

BTN is an aggrssive player, however when he catch a monster-trips or above he usually tries to get tricky, call in pos etc. to extract as many chips as possible. He got lucky few times with the worse hands.

MP2 is a weak player he often just calls the flop and if doesn't catch anything he fold the turn.

CO: t3517 M = 14.65
BTN: t20840 M = 86.83
SB: t6660 M = 27.75
Hero (BB): t7308 M = 30.45
UTG: t2087 M = 8.70
UTG+1: t5058 M = 21.07
UTG+2: t3280 M = 13.67
MP1: t2040 M = 8.50
MP2: t5132 M = 21.38

Pre Flop: (t240) Hero is BB with T of diamonds 9 of diamonds
3 folds, MP1 raises to t200, MP2 calls t200, 1 fold, BTN calls t200, SB calls t150, Hero calls t100

( Here i get almost 1-10 odds with hand that can easily develop into monster. No reason to 3 bet light since i don't expect many folds at this level)

Flop: (t1090) 8 of clubs 2 of hearts 9 of clubs (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t545,
(Pretty good flop for me I have top pair, and I want to make at least few players fold and get money into the pot. 1/2 pot bet will keep players with possible flush and straight draws and 2nd pair ace kicker etc.

MP1 folds, MP2 calls t545, BTN raises to t20630 all in, SB folds, Hero calls t6553 all in, MP2 folds

(Now i hit the time bank and think. I face big stack all in and one player still to act. ( I'm not really afraid of him since he often just calls in hope to catch sth) (so first thing that comes into my mind is -big stack is semi-bluffing with the flush draw. so i think it's like 70% he is semi-bluffing with flush draw, 15% he is shoving with sth like 89 9J Q9 K9 A9 and 15% he is bluffing with some overcards and gutshots. therefore i decide to call)
Does my call has positive expectations ? Would you make the call that could cost you your tourney life?


Turn: (t15831) A of diamonds (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t15831) Q of clubs (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t15831
BTN shows A <font color='black'>♣</font> 4 <font color='black'>♣</font> (a flush, Ace high) As it turns out he had 12 outs and 45,9% equity against my pair of 99 54,1%
Hero shows T <font color='red'>♦</font> 9 <font color='red'>♦</font> (a pair of Nines)
BTN wins t15831

 

[limakpl]

BLINDS 50/100 ANTE 10

 

[horizon12]

Fold on this shove, playing all-in when you have 70bb only with top pair bad kicker will be mistake, because villain can have hands like A9, flush/straight draw or flush draw with overcards, set and overpairs, against this range hands you already far behind. Also this multiway pot, top pair bad kicker not very strong hand vs many players.

Example if villain have flush draw+ overcards you have only 45% equity, against open ended straight flush draw only 35% equity.

 

[limakpl]

ok. let's say i'm certain he is on the flush draw with one overcard. Would calling bbe a good play in this case ?

 

[horizon12]

ok. let's say i'm certain he is on the flush draw with one overcard. Would calling bbe a good play in this case ?

You can not know certain that he has exactly this range. With top pair bad kicker when you have still big stack need always fold and not play all-in because this -EV, in most cases the opponent will have overpairs or better. It makes no sense to risk now, when you can find a more profitable situation with your stack

 

[xxMorpheusxx]

I agree with that many chips we can wait for a better spot. Although it is tempting to call when you know he is likely to be semi bluffing.

With reads like that on the villian had he not done that on the flop. I would be okay with playing a medium sized pot and calling down if no flush hits.

Given that deep stacked it is incorrect to call here. At how many blinds does this become profitable. I cannot see myself folding with 20bb here. What about 30-40?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

The more players are in the pot; the more actions tend to mean what they look like. in a multiway pot pair of 9s on the flop is just not good enough to get it in with 70+bb.

EVEN if you are right and he has a big draw....he's still got a ton of equity against you. if he has, say he's actually the favorite to win the hand.

I like your preflop thinking....I liked your thinking on the flop; just not your final decision.