I wanted to try to get some value with my aces. It was fairly late in the tourney, down to 40 some players remaining from the starting 810. I believed first villain was opening somewhat wide to try to win blinds and antes. Calling villain I figured had a better range. With only 20 BBs to start the hand should I just be jamming this and hope for a call since any decent sized raise (mine was even too small but didnt want it to be too large a % of my stack) will look like it is committing me anyway and may deter calls? ( I know, 27 cent tourney where maybe no one is folding but this deep should be some of the better players in the tournament)
In my mind I think I did the right thing and took a risk to get value but wanted to see what you all thought especially considering I am about 20 bigs to start the hand.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/2q1rbhFV
Thank you for posting
Stopped replay preflop before you raised.
Meta game thinking is key here.
The third player makes this a great squeeze spot and does not scream AA only at all.
Stack sizes the Opn raiser has an easy call with 4x your stack and the OvrCall V has a perfect screw it call double up stack size if the Opn folds.
Going 3 way vs typical V at this buy-in level sucks and a raise only causes that way to often.
Typical V can also play fit or fold post flop so we take a lot of risk for only a little extra juice.
If we win right now we have a 26bb stack and a skill advantage also a very good result with no risk. We get the btn the very next hand as well with a short stack in the big blind and medium stack in the SB folding a wide range because of possible BB shove.
I am shoving 100% based on the meta game factors.
replayer stopped on your sizing
This sizing looks like you are pot committed. You said you were afraid a skilled player would play well vs the shove but then you made this bet size. I do not know for sure but i doubt very many players playing online in your games 3 bet fold preflop or not shove on the flop at this size so a skilled player will assume you just shoved but want to get called.
Ok the
odds you give the big stack to draw on the flop would be 2.5 to 1 so they need only 28%
equity on the flop to make the call correct.
Most of the calls we will get on the flop when we shove will be very close to that equity.
Played the rest of the hand big stack played fit or fold preflop.
You gave them 4.77-1 odds on a fit or fold they only needed 17% equity they had 21.66% with their perfect AA cracker hand.
No way to say they would fold it preflop but we max EV them by shoving preflop.
Bad luck
uke:
Hope this helps