$260 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Bubble Hand TP on the Turn

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

I'm a Newb to CC so tell me if I'm screwing the format up here. I'd really love your opinions on this hand:

On the bubble (or maybe 2 or 3 off the bubble) of 194 person MTT. I think the blinds are about 2000-10,000-20,000

I am second in chips at my table after winning a big hand earlier with about $700k

Villain has just arrived at table with just over $400K

Villain raises to $75k and in the BB I have 8s9s. I call. Flop 557 rainbow. Villain checks. Why I check back here I don't know. It's normally my style to bet a gut shot if someone checks to me, but I check.

Turn 9h. Villain bets 100k. I have no idea why he would like that card. I reraise to $300k which puts him almost all in.

My question is do you think should I reraise here or just flat?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I'll refrain from responding just now because I want to hear what others have to say about this hand.

I was there railing my homegirl in person and I remember this hand quite well.

You were past the bubble, on the final table bubble. 21 were paid and they had just balanced the tables at 6 and 6, that was why that new guy was brought over. (but then they lost a player over there, so it was down to 11). You were on the "bubble" for a significant pay jump from $795 to $1,050 or something close to a $300 pay jump for reaching final table.


Edit to add: It is worth noting that the table is 6 handed and the average stack is about 430,000.

it is also worth noting that you are BY FAR one of the 2 or 3 strongest players remaining, and potentially THE BEST 6 max player left in the field (as evidenced by your 2nd place 6max finish at the Chinook Winds WPT Deepstacks).

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

also, my memory could be failing me, but I think the blinds were bigger because I remember his raise was something like 2.5x the BB, not 3.5x the BB.

I think the blinds were 15,000/30,000 with a 5,000 ante. That all makes much more sense, and makes your preflop call a lot more reasonable given the pot odds.

I definitely remember he bet 100k on the turn and you raised to 300k on the turn.

 

[Aces2w1n]

8s9s or K4s it's the same reason why you don't fall in love with hitting top pair and don't play these because its hard to drop it when you hit top and almost always in dire straits.... you have a very marginal hand and your risking your strong position in the tournament??? **** I could end it here**** OOP as well...... its all about position at this stage and also higher the blinds the value lessons with connectors... also your opponent isn't that deep to bring value to your hand and it's not a multi way pot.

Seriously dude... A gut shot? ..... Then you reraise the turn, the guys obviously trying to trap you and your out of position..... Horrible horrible horrible. Unless ofc you got some read but you didn't... if you end up winning the hand well i'd becareful that you might make that play a habbit in your game because it's not a winning one there.


SIMPLE FOLD PRE!!!!!!! or cbet or put pressure on the guy on the flop and end the hand... just ugly

 

[Jillychemung]

Stacks are too shallow (M<10 if 5/15/30) to float with suited connectors here especially if there is a big pay jump. Either fold or raise and shove the flop. With villains shorter stack I'd expect his hand to be a better one but you don't say what his position was.

 

[WiZZiM]

Not sure why you are defending when the person just sat in.. it can be ok but generally dont like to do it vs unknowns. Get a bit of a read first.

As played I think I just flat it and see a river. Gonna be a tricky one on the river here most times though.

 

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

My read on the flop was that he had whiffed which is why I don't know why I don't bet out. Probably my worst mistake in the hand. It just didn't seem like the 9 would help if he whiffed the flop.

Curious though what everyone thinks about the check raise once I get to the turn.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Here's my take on the hand

preflop:It's totally fine to defend your BB here with a very playable hand and good pot odds. Especially because you're usually quite live against his value raising range. Even if the blinds are smaller (20k) you are getting 2.3:1 pot odds and if the blinds are bigger (30k) you are getting 3.3:1 pot odds. Plus being 6 handed and your post flop ability makes this a +EV call. I would have called too, and my post flop skills aren't as strong as yours.

Flop I think you should have donk bet the flop for about 50% of the pot for several reasons #1 that flop misses his range #2 that flop hits your perceived range #3 it's harder for villains to catch a piece or a nice draw on a paired board. #4 it's easy for you to let your hand go if he plays back at you on this flop #5 you have a gutshot as a little bonus

turn as played I think you should check call the turn. You check to simultaneously induce a bluff, and pot control the times you are behind. Having seen you check twice he will now likely bet his KJ QT A8 type hands. I think you can happily call here as you really only need to dodge 3-6 outs with 1 card to come. By raising the turn I think you're inflating a pot where you're either way ahead or way behind. Usually you'll only get called by a better hand, and you'll fold out many hands that have very little equity and may even bluff at the river. Because you have good showdown value and are probably ahead with a marginal hand; keep the pot small and use it as a bluff catcher.

river playing the river will be tricky and unless you bink your gutshot or a 9 you should check pretty much all rivers. If an over card comes and he bets you'll have to take a read and may have to pay him off, but his river bet us likely to be in the neighborhood of $200k so it will cost you about the same as raising on the turn.

Being out of position and playing an unknown player make all decisions a little trickier here, which is why I favor pot control and bluff catching.

 

[duggs]

iv assumed that missjackis responses held the correct table info.

pre flop seems fine, kinda a poor candidate to 3bet since folding to a 4bet or being called are both meh situations.

flop I'm fine with checking, I'm most likely c/r this flop given it whiffs so much of his range.

turn: would have been planning to lead a lot of blanks given his xb but given we turn close to the nut turn for our range I'm cool with checking it.

stuff that is missing that i think is important, suits on the flop? suit on the turn? opening position?

if there are lots of turned draws that will struggle to fold then I'm cool with shoving, i think we are in great shape on the turn and his range is pretty much over cards +and backdoored flush draws which may have come in. feel pretty comfortable x/c then x/snap river and pick of a bluff, A/K are kinda yuck cards to peel off on river but at the same time villain may typically over bluff them. really need positions ( i may have missed it) and a physical description always helps

 

[deluns28]

Villain's 2.5BB raise on the big blind is pretty wide. I would play this conservatively also.

1. Check the flop.
2. Call the turn
3. Call/Bet on the river. If he shove on the flop, damn it but i will still call. lols.

 

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

It was a rainbow flop. I think a second diamond on the turn but I'm not real worried about any flush draw.

I think my real misplay was not betting that flop. It misses a lot of his range I can easily rep a low/middle pair and I find out quick if he has an overpair and I can be done with the hand.

The turn I think I'm with MissJacki and I should just call. Although with the stack sizes it may go in on the river anyways which was another 7.

 

[duggs]

i don't like having a donking range on flops where his range is stronger than ours, we leave our checking range extremely vulnerable and we just allow him to play better v our range, whatever our decision controlling number of bets into the pot seems preferable

 

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

i don't like having a donking range on flops where his range is stronger than ours, we leave our checking range extremely vulnerable and we just allow him to play better v our range, whatever our decision controlling number of bets into the pot seems preferable

Agreed. Ultimately that's what MJ and I talked about was pot control with a fairly strong hand on the turn that's way ahead of his range. The only hand I should be betting there is trips or a FH.

As it turns out he had Q9. I probably save $200k by check calling the turn and then making a blocking bet on the river. Or conversely I'm sure I take the pot down by donk betting the flop.

 

[rumsey182]

preflop 20BB effective and villain opens, being OOP i would just fold way too shallow

given the effective stacks i actually like checking back, as i think you face way too big a risk of a c/r all in last thing i want is to be blown off my equity

when he leads this turn he is repping a bigger PP or st8 draw that was going to c/r the flop, or missed overs that is just trying to stab so i would call and plan on calling the river on low cards as anything high hits his stab range and i expect him to c/f a lot of his missed hands there is just not much else he can do unless he is a crazy bluffer and honestly i just doubt people bluff in such a big spot on the river usually people get tight and don't want to" make a big mistake"

 

[horizon12]

Before bubble easy fold, we no need risk much , and save more stack , when started ITM , that would increase our aggression and more steal, what this need big stack...