$26 NLHE Deep Stacked: Is my hand really strong enough to call that push?

[nicoiko]

$26 NL HE Deep Stacked: Is my hand really strong enough to call that push?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 31/25/1.63

I was reviewing some of my tournaments where I made good ITM finishes in order to see if I can find what has changed in my game since i can't seem to go as deep those last days.
Then I found this hand and now i think the way i played on the turn is really questionable.
Does that 2nd barrell/ call the push make any sense to you or with the stacks and the texture of the board would you have been more cautious?

fulltiltpoker Game #10703872343: $5,500 Guarantee (80509431), Table 34 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 9:31:32 ET - 2009/02/18
Seat 1: worldsalon (6,298)
Seat 2: Borre007 (16,459)
Seat 3: nicoiko (28,461)
Seat 4: Mowinckle (17,606)
Seat 5: loddar_m (4,960)
Seat 6: Jrt367 (13,150)
Seat 7: SelfRealization (13,012)
Seat 8: monkeymind83 (9,306)
Seat 9: AlwaysUltra (6,765)
worldsalon antes 50
Borre007 antes 50
nicoiko antes 50
Mowinckle antes 50
loddar_m antes 50
Jrt367 antes 50
SelfRealization antes 50
monkeymind83 antes 50
AlwaysUltra antes 50
nicoiko posts the small blind of 250
Mowinckle posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nicoiko [8h Td]
loddar_m folds
Jrt367 folds
SelfRealization folds
monkeymind83 folds
AlwaysUltra folds
worldsalon folds
Borre007 folds
nicoiko raises to 1,600
Mowinckle has 15 seconds left to act
Mowinckle calls 1,100
*** FLOP *** [7d Jc Jd]
nicoiko has 15 seconds left to act
nicoiko bets 2,666
Mowinckle has 15 seconds left to act
Mowinckle calls 2,666
*** TURN *** [7d Jc Jd] 9♣
nicoiko has 15 seconds left to act
nicoiko bets 5,233
Mowinckle raises to 13,290, and is all in
nicoiko calls 8,057
...
More to come ^^

 

[t1riel]

Depending on the read of your opponent, I think so. The hand I see him having is trip Jacks. With no flush draw out there and only five hands can beat you, I see nothing wrong with the call.

 

[Jillychemung]

Any reads or what opponent has shown down? What kind of blind defender is the BB?

 

[The Shrog]

I don't see how you can ever fold this hand on the turn.

 

[nicoiko]

Any reads or what opponent has shown down? What kind of blind defender is the BB?

stats says he only fold his BB to steal 66%.
However i can't tell what was his stat at this point of the tournament...

Depending on the read of your opponent, I think so. The hand I see him having is trip Jacks. With no flush draw out there and only five hands can beat you, I see nothing wrong with the call.

there is a flush draw possibility on the flop : firstly that's where i put him. Trips jack would have probably 3-bet the flop to protect hand against the flush draw.
Obviously there is also a possibility he was on AJ with Ace of diamond as blocking ace. He can even be tricky enough to take the risk to flat call with trips here in order to trap me.
But definitely i saw him on flush draw when i first bet on the turn.

I don't see how you can ever fold this hand on the turn.

That was his push who induced me some doubt. I know he could semi-bluff here with a flush draw but i would have expected this move on the flop not after turn . Would have he been afraid by the double jack on flop he should have the same fears after the turn (+ there is one card less to hit his draw).
No really his push was ever he tries to put me out of the hand (bluff or over pair might be possibilities) or he thought i was too much implicated to fold to a push and then decide to "push for value" if i can say that
So definitely for me something like J9s,J7s or 77 or 99 is really possible.

But hey if I hold AA on a flop with 222 I'm always thinking my opponent would have the fourth 2
So maybe I think and fear too much
Let's wait a bit to show you the results

 

[Jillychemung]

I think that you can call this shove all day given the read. I would eliminate pocket pairs from his range as those should have induced a 3-bet, so that just leaves a few J7/J9 combos and the rest would be flush draws, st8 draws, Jx, 9x, 7x hands and obviously a tie w/ the other T8 combos.

 

[nicoiko]

I think that you can call this shove all day given the read. I would eliminate pocket pairs from his range as those should have induced a 3-bet, so that just leaves a few J7/J9 combos and the rest would be flush draws, st8 draws, Jx, 9x, 7x hands and obviously a tie w/ the other T8 combos.

Yep i think you're right but there's one more element who shall interfere my decision : the size of our both stack compare to the average size of stack.
(My bad i didn't mention this on my first post ).
Can't remember exactly how deep we are (the size of the blinds here and the size of the others players at the table might give us a good idea of it) but hey I've got the chip lead at this table by far.
So i was trying to stole the BB but for now that tend to be a huge pot against the second in chips
Should i won this one I'm gonna add a bit more than half my current stack of chippies so huge chip lead but don't think that makes a really big difference at this time of the tourney (it will have a greater importance if we were near the bubble or final 2-3 tables i think).
Should i lose this one and then I return in the middle of the "wolf pack" with no chip domination on the tables to pressure my opponents.

What i want to say is that losing this hand has more impact on my tourney than winning it.
However and even if there's a possibility of "paying dead" a straight is a difficult hand to fold.

No results yet (might wait a bit so that you all can make a few more comments on what i just add) but all i can say now to you is that i didn't take all those elements in count before paying and whatever the result is I think I've made a fault here.

 

[HNRocketS]

Given stack sizes and your odds to call, with the nut straight is pretty standard. If you fold here your bad at poker, you can only think he has a boat if you have a super strong read on him, he wouldn't flat w/ trip Jacks on the flop. He's either repping a boat w/ flush draw or is drawing to the boat with 3 jacks. I snap everytime.

 

[t1riel]

there is a flush draw possibility on the flop : firstly that's where i put him. Trips jack would have probably 3-bet the flop to protect hand against the flush draw.
Obviously there is also a possibility he was on AJ with Ace of diamond as blocking ace. He can even be tricky enough to take the risk to flat call with trips here in order to trap me.
But definitely i saw him on flush draw when i first bet on the turn.

I meant to say was he doesn't have the flush. I don't see him pushing on a flush draw.

 

[switch0723]

this doesnt even need analysis, unless im misreading the board, snap call 100% of the time

 

[Jillychemung]

No results yet (might wait a bit so that you all can make a few more comments on what i just add)

Results are not needed, the hand is over once you make your decision to call or not.

 

[soonerdel]

ur only beaten by five hands. some of those can be eliminated by looking at the pre flop action. i would have all my money in every time with this hand and this board.

 

[kill n laugh]

thats an easy call for me haha... thats a relatively good board even against a flush draw.

 

[nicoiko]

I'm giving you the results as it could explained in part why i've posted this hand (a bit result oriented Nico ? naaaaaah )

nicoiko calls 8,057
Mowinckle shows [9d Kd]
nicoiko shows [8h Td]
*** RIVER *** [7d Jc Jd 9c] 5♦
Mowinckle shows a flush, King high
nicoiko shows a straight, Jack high
Mowinckle wins the pot (35,562) with a flush, King high

So I was right about thinking he was on a flush draw and as he hit a 9 on the river he decided to push. His play is a bit more understandable now.
The fact that he hit his flush on the river should make no difference but i really ask myself : Would I've been so inclined to think I've made a mistake here (giving the fact that at this part of the tournament i prefer to play small ball pots) if i have won this hand?
I hope I would have as when you decided to play small pots and put pressure on medium low stacks you must not be happy with that kind of play against second big stack of the table which induce you have to put more than a half of your stack even if there is good chance you're ahead.

Here I'm a 72/28 favorite so the play in himself is really correct but when you think small ball even with a pretty good hand and a good read I'm not sure that the value of stack you won is at this stage of the tournament sufficient enough to make the call given the fact that if you lost the hand there then the chippies you lost have a lot more importance.

AAAAArggh! Straight is a too good hand to fold here.
Na small ball or not I'm not that strong enough in term of discipline to fold here
But if i've not succeed in finishing third of this one I would have probably blame this hand a lot more.

 

[DaFrench1]

You def made the right call, even if it had turned out that villain had a better hand , on this occasion you got nastily donked and his horrible play got rewarded but you shouldn't over-analyse hands like this and let it affect future decisions.

I know it always hurts to get crippled in tournament play. I would read his play as being that he thinks you missed and are just being over-aggressive, he either really thought he was ahead when he hit the 9 with FD and got lucky or just that he could force you off the hand with a shove as he thought you were betting light. These are the players that you make your stack off most of the time so actually be thankful for players like that but accept that they will get lucky every now and then. 3-1 favourite means just that, you'll win 3 and he'll win 1.

 

[kill n laugh]

DaFrench1 made a really good explanation of this entire hand and how the betting probably went down. The villain probably thought his hand was good when he hit the 9 and maybe sensed weakness from you (in case you were trying to trap him)... either way it wasnt a bad call on your hand, just bad luck.

 

[JoeDi]

I doubt i would have called the flop or even preflop with that hand but you made the right read on the turn and he sucked out.. Even if you knew exactly what his cards were wouldnt you have called? Your 75% to win or something lke that after the turn..

 

[Caysewell]

Na small ball or not I'm not that strong enough in term of discipline to fold here

This is what I understood about small ball although I might possibly be wrong. You try to win pots with small risks and keeping the pot small. But when you have a monster you want to get the chips in the middle to get paid for it. Surely you're not going to fold because the pot is large.

A little off track but just out of curiosity, with the same preflop conditions and same flop, if you were the villain and you flopped or turned a full house, how would you have played the flop and the turn?

 

[CrossCrucificio]

Well first and foremost why even raise with 10 8 off suit? In fact, why even play the hand at all ? Anyway you did and the turn seems to have worked out for you. Well at least for now. Player pushed all-in, now you have a bind to where does he have a full house? If you make this call and he does show the nuts? Well, you shouldn't be playing your starting hands to start with.

 

[LuckyChippy]

Like you said the flush draw was a possiblilty, with the flat call on the flop, theres a full house possibility that he's slow played till he thinks you're commited. Trips would have been unlikely as he would probably have raised to protect.

You played it as well as you could, though if you truly believed it was the flush draw, maybe a larger bet to shut him would have been better in a tourney on the turn.
In the end, you called it correctly and put your stack in as a decent favourite, he just drew out.

 

[lewis010]

no way you could fold a straight in the turn.. maybe if there were 3 diamonds or clubs, maybe a set or double pair, however the only two combination that beat you is 4 of a kind jacks, or a full house.... so calling is the right option here....

 

[kcirjr]

You had to make the call with as many chips as you put in the pot. Also your hand is most likely good. There are always more aggressive players then passive and if he has a boat tip your hat to him and play another day. You really should not have bet with two jjs on the board because if he does have boat or trip js he has to figure out what to do. IF he bets you dont have to make the decision on the turn

 

[baudib1]

First, fold preflop. He's loose and a blind defender and you're out of position with a bad hand. Never fold the turn, omglol.

 

[silverslugger33]

You have to call here. You have decent odds and a really big hand. I don't mind playing hands like T8, but if you don't have the guts to make this call, then I do.