$24 NLHE: 3 bet pot with flush draw on turn

[No Brainer]

$24 NL HE: 3 bet pot with flush draw on turn

Start of a Rush tournament. No reads or stats. Would you continue to bet here? If so how much?

BTW on the turn, effective stack size is 1915, my stack is 2697


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
Hero ($3,897)
BB ($3,210)
UTG ($3,165)
UTG+1 ($3,315)
UTG+2 ($2,865)
MP1 ($2,980)
MP2 ($4,690)
CO ($3,115)
BTN ($3,560)

Dealt to Hero K♦ A♠

fold, UTG+1 raises to $120, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $120, fold, Hero raises to $440, fold, fold, CO calls $320

FLOP ($1,040) 8♦ T♦ 2♣

Hero bets $760, CO calls $760

TURN ($2,560) 8♦ T♦ 2♣ 2♦

Hero bets ??

 

[rounder22]

This is a spot I'm not sure about but I would probably bet 2000 to 2200 seeing the flush got there and he can't be too sure if he's good unless he's holding the flush himself.

 

[c9h13no3]

Villain has 1915 behind, and you've got a ton of outs against everything but a boat or nut flush. Its also sort of a speculative call flop, since T8 puts a lot of gutshots out there that can't continue.

We'd almost have to call a shove even if we check, so we might as well get some fold equity in the deal.

You also might want to consider betting the flop smaller, so our shove will be around potsized.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

I dunno. CO seems quite the calling station (see pre-flop)
Normally I'd reason that you haven't been giving good enough odds for a FD, any hand that calls a pf-raise will not contain a 2 or 8 and rarely a T, and a set or overpair would have reraised on the flop. So a lead, possibly a shove would be in order.

However in early MTT rounds you have to be careful. Lots of people call (note: no raise out of v pre-flop) ANY suited hand here, and if they hit their draw, simply (check/)call it out, shoving as soon as the flush hits.

That's why I think I check here and am willing to let this one go if I get raised AI.
If v checks back or merely makes a small bet, I'll gladly shove the river.

I realize this is not EV+ but I'd like to get to the stage where the biggest donks are out and I can start exploiting the tight passive players.

 

[No Brainer]

I realize this is not EV+ but I'd like to get to the stage where the biggest donks are out and I can start exploiting the tight passive players.

If you think this is not +ev then why would you recommend playing the hand this way. Is there another way of playing it that you think would be +ev?

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

If you think this is not +ev then why would you recommend playing the hand this way. Is there another way of playing it that you think would be +ev?

Apologize if it sounds smug, but I really think I answered both questions in the original post...

 

[No Brainer]

Maybe I worded it wrong. In this thread I would like to find out what other people think is the most +ev way of playing the hand. In your response you told me the way that you would play the hand but then stated that you don't think that it would be +ev. Do you think you could change the way you suggest playing this hand to make it +ev?

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

But I did:

Normally I'd reason that you haven't been giving good enough odds for a FD, any hand that calls a pf-raise will not contain a 2 or 8 and rarely a T, and a set or overpair would have reraised on the flop. So a lead, possibly a shove would be in order.