$235 NLHE Deep Stacked: Flopped Open-Ended from OOP in a battle of the blinds

[Weregoat]

$235 NL HE Deep Stacked: Flopped Open-Ended from OOP in a battle of the blinds

Final table, 5 remaining. 5th place walks with something like $4.6k, 4th place 6.3k.

Blinds are 20k/40k, antes 10k.
I'm short stack with 450k, seat 1 (BB) has about 1 mil.

BB ussually doesn't bet unless he thinks he's ahead, and hasn't shown too many steal attempts. I wasn't worried about him raising with junk, because he's predictable and tight, and when he bets I believe (he thinks) he's ahead of me.

Preflop action -
Folded around to me (SB).
Hero holds Q3o. I complete.
BB checks.

Flop: (Pot: 130k) 245 rainbow
Hero checks.
BB bets 100k.
Hero: ?

There are a few moves here -
1. Call and hope to improve. Assuming villain only has one pair and no draws, I have 3 Qs, 4 As, 4 6s to improve, 11 outs for about 22%.
2. Jam. If I jam, I'm getting my 11 outs on two streets, so I'll improve to a hand I believe to be best about 45% of the time. With the dead money in the pot, my opponent's fold equity, and a decent payout already achieved, this seems like a move worth doing.
3. Fold and wait. I am probably doing this move never, however earlier in the tournament or with a looser opponent I probably don't show up with this hand to the flop ever. (10 handed vs 5 and such)

 

[tenbob]

Errrr 110K per orbit leaves you with an M of 4.

Very easy shove pre-flop vs the bb. If I'm ever in the position where I have called pre, I rekon you can shove the flop.

 

[c9h13no3]

This hand is epic spew as played.

 

[dj11]

While the stakes are above my head, this is a final table and final tables don't vary nearly as much as early stages of tourneys/stakes.

So, you have a decent read on villain here and you are putting him on a pair? Just because of his bet? I would think his position and any 2 overcards gives his thought process about the same confidence as hitting his deuce.

So this becomes a battle of the wills, along with the ICM issues. But your ICM value is all used up if you fold here, and you, as short stack may (probably will) have to move with equally bad choices in the very near future.

I'll go with TB's recommendation that preflop it was really shove or fold, and your sb call was ill advised. Post flop with that board, I think you have less than a 50% (FE) chance to get villain to fold, along with your 45% chance of improving to the winning hand. Lots of crossover figuring in there and I'm feeling (reads + facts =feeling) that you have a 60ish % chance of winning this hand either by the semi-bluff or the improvement BUT ONLY IF YOU SHOVED FIRST postflop. So you've added prayer into your mess hoping a shove will look like you hit 2 pair or magically flopped the str8. You're not really getting the pot odds to shove here, you would be giving him bad odds to call.

Your #3 choice, where go cold, fold, and old waiting for someone else to do something dumb was blown (IMO) with the preflop call. This choice would have been more valuable had you decided preflop to fold. You lost a decent chunk of what could be FE in this next orbit.

So what my gibberish boils down to is that you probably should have folded pre, but now you should jam.


(I have the ugly suspicion that this really will come across as gibberish)

 

[Weregoat]

Thanks. As short-stack it would appear my problem was to in fact either not call or jam preflop.

I jammed there, he called with 5-7o, and I turned my straight.

This is just one of the hands I remember from the tournament and thought I'd get some insight on it. (Never made a Final Table in a tournament for this much money before... Was actually playing just for kicks and then ended up with a significant cash...)

Thanks again for the insight.

 

[Zybomb]

I really dislike limping pre BVB with a hand this weak. Clear shove/fold IMO depending on how light you believe BB will call down.

As played (yuck) if I checked the flop, I'd do so intending to CRAI. Since we have a read that BB doesn't seem to stab much this becomes a problem though because

1- BB probably isn't showing up with less than TP here when he nearly pots it given our read
2- He probably isn't folding ever if we shove
3- If we call we probably aren't going to get paid if we hit (outside of a Queen) and if we miss and check again, we have to fold if he shoves
4- Folding 11 outs sucks

Bc of all of this I think given our read on BB our flop check is terrible. I'd much rather just bet/call. Since he doesn't seem to defend much, we pick the pot up uncontested a lot of the time, and should he shove fine we'll gamble with likely 11 outs (our M is too low to fold once we bet). By checking it puts us in a bad spot since if he bets we're basically shoving with no fold equity and if he checks behind and we brick we give him extra chances to hit something (if we plan on stabbing the turn) and if we do stab the turn and he shoves we probably can't call with 1 card to come, which may lead to us not stabbing the turn at all.

Had we had different reads on the BB this could all change. For instance if BB stabbed a lot if checked to, CRAI the flop would be vastly superior, or if BB floated BVB a lot or called down lightly, betting wouldn't be as effective.

 

[Weregoat]

Thanks for the insight again, Zybomb. After further review I've realized that I hadn't played this hand right, I'm glad to get all the insight from everybody.

 

[bubonicplay]

Without antes this is a fold preflop. Not entirely sure but the antes may make it a ship but basically it's gonna be close either way so shove or fold just don't for the love of god limp you make baby Jesus cry when you do that. Postflop is just sorta w/e you have a bunch of equity with super-shallow stacks so if he ever bet/folds ch/shipping here can't be bad or just bet/call basically hard to make a mistake with that much equity and that shallow stacks postflop. But seriously don't ever limp in this situation ever. It's super terrible and a huge leak. You shouldn't even have a limping range there and if you do it should definitely not include Q3o...