$225 NLHE MTT: Over Pair facing check raise on flop

[Jacki Burkhart]

Blinds are 400/800 antes are 100. I have QQ UTG and raise to 2,000. My stack is about 45,000



The CO calls as well as the SB and BB. GULP.



Flop comes Pot contains 8,900. 4 players.



Both blinds check to me and I bet 5,000. CO folds, SB folds and the BB check raises me to 15,000. Definitely my alarm bells are going off; however I have seen him check raise on the flop 2 other times already (in about 80 hands). Which suggests to me he might be doing this with draws or for information. Pot contains 24,400 and costs me 10,000 to stay in. I could already be crushed here, or he could have a hand like 9T or A9 or TT or JJ or 2 diamonds and 2 overs. I decide flatting in position is the best action. See what develops on the turn. A lot of times when a player like this check raises with less than a monster and gets called they will check/check the turn.



Turn is pot contains 38,900

The 5 is not a terrible card, but not a good card. pocket 66 and 55 just drew out. as well as 67,68,69.



The BB leads for 18,000 into 38,900.

Now what should I do?

 

[Flayst]

I would really like to see what others have to say about this hand, as I'm a bit out of my league to give advice here, but I will give you my opinion.

As played, I think you have to lay it down to the turn bet. If you were going to jam it, I think you would have had to do that after the flop re-raise. Jamming it now on that board is a seriously risky move, even more risky now than it was on the flop. His lead-out after a re-raise starts to look more and more like a flopped set, possibly 78 or 89, or like you said 66 and now he really wants to get you off any flush draw. It seems to me he is wanting you to fold draws, which means to me he has a made hand which I would have to trust is better than TPTK. He could very well have JJ and play it this way, but that's just one hand out of many others that have you crushed. It would be a hard fold and one that I would have trouble making, myself, but as a back seat driver I think the fold would be correct.

 

[WiZZiM]

not a huge fan of the flop call, i think it spots like this we have to make a decision either way(jam or fold), bc there's gonna be a lot of bad turn cards for us. Any diamond, 5x, K A J T are all cards we're likely not happy with on the turn to get the remainder of our stack in. And even if blanks hit we're still in basically the same predicament as we are on the flop.

Hoping for a check/check type line after aggro moves like this is imo a bit of a failed plan. Like, "gee i hope he just checks here" isn't really thinking the hand through. this is a classic "might be ahead/crushed spot" Like we could be ahead of hands like T9 or whatever, but even those hands have a tremendous amount of equity against us.

I just let this one go on the flop since i can't knowingly call here and expect a turn check often(still have a river to play, hoping a lot for a c/c c/c pot here and any bet is kind of hard to deal with)

Just my thoughts will be interesting to download pokerstove on this one and play around with some equities. And good to have you back in the tourney HA jacki

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

not a huge fan of the flop call, i think it spots like this we have to make a decision either way(jam or fold), bc there's gonna be a lot of bad turn cards for us. Any diamond, 5x, K A J T are all cards we're likely not happy with on the turn to get the remainder of our stack in. And even if blanks hit we're still in basically the same predicament as we are on the flop.

Hoping for a check/check type line after aggro moves like this is imo a bit of a failed plan. Like, "gee i hope he just checks here" isn't really thinking the hand through. this is a classic "might be ahead/crushed spot" Like we could be ahead of hands like T9 or whatever, but even those hands have a tremendous amount of equity against us.

I just let this one go on the flop since i can't knowingly call here and expect a turn check often(still have a river to play, hoping a lot for a c/c c/c pot here and any bet is kind of hard to deal with)

Just my thoughts will be interesting to download pokerstove on this one and play around with some equities. And good to have you back in the tourney HA jacki

Thanks for your insights.

I did fold the turn and instantly thought to myself: Why did I even call the check raise on the flop?

Which is why I posted this hand...knew I didn't play it optimally but was wondering what others thought.

What about the fact that he had check raised the flop 3 times in recent history? Does that change anything?

 

[WiZZiM]

it might but would need to make my own table read. Otherwise i just ignore it, other than he might do it as a bluff more or with a more linear range on the flop, Or in other words he might do it with worse/no draw more often, making getting QQ in on the flop better. But i'd need a pretty solid read and i still don't think this is the spot to get our stack in.

Like with my own table read i'd be looking at what types of flops he c/r and also how loose he is or how likely it is that his range hit certain flops. I'd make that judgement at the table or with use of HUD for online poker. If you think he overvalues or does this a lot with middle/bottom pair type hands for bluffs and weak draws and is overly aggressive it might be a spot to just jam it all in on the flop here.

 

[HooDooKoo]

not a huge fan of the flop call, i think it spots like this we have to make a decision either way(jam or fold), bc there's gonna be a lot of bad turn cards for us. Any diamond, 5x, K A J T are all cards we're likely not happy with on the turn to get the remainder of our stack in. And even if blanks hit we're still in basically the same predicament as we are on the flop.

I'm with WiZ here. Calling this flop is the worst thing you can do as too many cards make future decisions really hard. It's shove or fold --- and I would instafold.

-HooDooKoo

 

[thatgreekdude]

4 ways it's just way too likely someones hit this board super hard, it's hard to let the lady's go, but I think we just have to suck it up, fold flop and move on.

 

[jj20002]

the bets way to describe it: GULP! and indeed when 3 villains pay to see the flop is not going to be easy to win with only a pair and the flop only makes more difficult to win it,

i think checking the flop could be ok or if cbet, then fold any reraise,

maybe adjusting the raise preflop and trying to isolate next time

 

[jj20002]

the bets way to describe it: GULP! and indeed when 3 villains pay to see the flop is not going to be easy to win with only a pair and the flop only makes more difficult to win it,

i think checking the flop could be ok or if cbet, then fold any reraise,

maybe adjusting the raise preflop and trying to isolate next time

 

[el_magiciann]

You beat small sample of hands and you have only 1 pair, which means it's completely folding situation and saving your chips for better spots, plus you don't want to risk your tournament life with only one pair. He leads the turn which seems pretty strong move i think, even if he is trying to fold you he will at least have some outs for the river to come, solid play at this limits means easy fold.

 

[Frontiere]

Check - raise on flop is a big warning. You should fold ( i will ), especialy with that flop.

 

[el_magiciann]

Check/ raise on flop isn't the most scary part, a lot of player would try to fold cbets on wet board with making this play(check/ raise), the scary part is villains bet on turn - out of position, which means strong hand and trying to fold any drawing hands. I would made this call at flop too, if the villain is semi bluffing he is checking the turn and the hero too. If river is blank for both i don't think the villain would make another bet.

 

[AtiFCOD]

Blinds are 400/800 antes are 100. I have QQ UTG and raise to 2,000. My stack is about 45,000



The CO calls as well as the SB and BB. GULP.



Flop comes Pot contains 8,900. 4 players.



Both blinds check to me and I bet 5,000. CO folds, SB folds and the BB check raises me to 15,000. Definitely my alarm bells are going off; however I have seen him check raise on the flop 2 other times already (in about 80 hands). Which suggests to me he might be doing this with draws or for information. Pot contains 24,400 and costs me 10,000 to stay in. I could already be crushed here, or he could have a hand like 9T or A9 or TT or JJ or 2 diamonds and 2 overs. I decide flatting in position is the best action. See what develops on the turn. A lot of times when a player like this check raises with less than a monster and gets called they will check/check the turn.



Turn is pot contains 38,900

The 5 is not a terrible card, but not a good card. pocket 66 and 55 just drew out. as well as 67,68,69.



The BB leads for 18,000 into 38,900.

Now what should I do?

I think most of the time it's a fold. It is a multiway-pot. You are fighting with the BB with wide range. He can have his straight...
But on the other hand he knows it. On this level this can also be a huge bluff (I'm curious about his stack size). I think we only beat bluffs here.
I cant make decision here, one has to rely on his intuition at these situations.

 

[horizon12]

Fold turn, board really good for range big blind, i think you already far behind and no need overplaying here with only top pair on very coordinated board...

 

[duggs]

Blinds are 400/800 antes are 100. I have QQ UTG and raise to 2,000. My stack is about 45,000



The CO calls as well as the SB and BB. GULP.



Flop comes Pot contains 8,900. 4 players.



Both blinds check to me and I bet 5,000. CO folds, SB folds and the BB check raises me to 15,000. Definitely my alarm bells are going off; however I have seen him check raise on the flop 2 other times already (in about 80 hands). Which suggests to me he might be doing this with draws or for information. Pot contains 24,400 and costs me 10,000 to stay in. I could already be crushed here, or he could have a hand like 9T or A9 or TT or JJ or 2 diamonds and 2 overs. I decide flatting in position is the best action. See what develops on the turn. A lot of times when a player like this check raises with less than a monster and gets called they will check/check the turn.



Turn is pot contains 38,900

The 5 is not a terrible card, but not a good card. pocket 66 and 55 just drew out. as well as 67,68,69.



The BB leads for 18,000 into 38,900.

Now what should I do?

i like the thought process, except people just bluff way less in multiway pots, you bet into 3 players so you don't really have a wide perceived bluffing range. Id just fold the flop in this spot.

generally id strongly disagree with wizzim about it being shove or fold. we can definitely call planning on folding a lot of turns given the price we are given and the read that villain won't barrel his weaker parts of his range, this is exactly how bluff catching is supposed to work. the better the price the less often we should fold, and if he continues enough we want to call enough that he can't auto profit from barreling, but not so much that bluffing into us is suicide.

Im not really even sure if we should bet this flop, but i don't really see a better alternative. it would be really helpful to know stack sizes for everyone so we can make a better post flop plan for the flop

 

[Ambur]

You can not get multiway pot 3 street of value polarized flop like this for your ladies! imo

Stack sizes should be nice start as said above!

Meh! I would not cbet on flop like this! Since EP opener range is classified and their ranges are polarized!

 

[Marcwantstowin]

Blinds are 400/800 antes are 100. I have QQ UTG and raise to 2,000. My stack is about 45,000



The CO calls as well as the SB and BB. GULP.



Flop comes Pot contains 8,900. 4 players.



Both blinds check to me and I bet 5,000. CO folds, SB folds and the BB check raises me to 15,000. Definitely my alarm bells are going off; however I have seen him check raise on the flop 2 other times already (in about 80 hands). Which suggests to me he might be doing this with draws or for information. Pot contains 24,400 and costs me 10,000 to stay in. I could already be crushed here, or he could have a hand like 9T or A9 or TT or JJ or 2 diamonds and 2 overs. I decide flatting in position is the best action. See what develops on the turn. A lot of times when a player like this check raises with less than a monster and gets called they will check/check the turn.



Turn is pot contains 38,900

The 5 is not a terrible card, but not a good card. pocket 66 and 55 just drew out. as well as 67,68,69.



The BB leads for 18,000 into 38,900.

Now what should I do?

Firstly, I think like others that on the re-raise you should have shoved all-in.
But now in your position I think you may have "missed the bus/ boat" but dependant on stack size, your next move should be to force him to either be all-in or fold. Personally I would shove, most would fold but I am an agressive player and think he may still be looking for a diamond.

I understand you folded - did you get to find out what he had? Just out of interest? Gl in the future . (Sorry not much help there though).

 

[NineLions]

In third position four way with this flop, I probably don't even bet the flop. An overpair in this situation is not much of a hand and I want the pot to stay as small as possible .

The checkraise implies a vulnerable hand; two pair, set, or, since the other two have folded, he could be putting you squarely on an overpair which he can push you off of regardless of his holding. Against awful players this could be A9, against a really good player this could be air, but I think you have to allow yourself to be pushed off this situation.

The only the checkraise makes sense for value is if he knows that you've paid attention to him checkraising before and he thinks you'll be more likely to call as a result, otherwise I don't know why he doesn't just flat.

 

[WiZZiM]

generally id strongly disagree with wizzim about it being shove or fold. we can definitely call planning on folding a lot of turns given the price we are given and the read that villain won't barrel his weaker parts of his range, this is exactly how bluff catching is supposed to work. the better the price the less often we should fold, and if he continues enough we want to call enough that he can't auto profit from barreling, but not so much that bluffing into us is suicide.

Im not really even sure if we should bet this flop, but i don't really see a better alternative. it would be really helpful to know stack sizes for everyone so we can make a better post flop plan for the flop

I missed the read about villian not barrelling the weaker parts of his range. I read it as a general assumption that players won't barrell here much after c/r the flop, which to me doesn't really sound right at all.

The main reason i think it's tough to call is that i feel like we are facing a bet on turns way too often, meaning we fold out a lot.

Just to get a general idea. what cards are you continuing turn on and what cards are you folding? Without doing a major analysis it seems like there are way more cards we have to fold on. Also, i don't really think it's cheap to continue, 10k out of a 45k stack is a pretty huge sum in the hopes of getting to a turn and hoping he checks/a good card hits.

IDK, gotta convince me on this one mr duggs, i think it's one of those spots where we gotta make our mind up on the flop. But i've been known to be wrong in the past(more than a few times haha), but i can't see it currently.

 

[WiZZiM]

I will concede the turn is actually pretty easy to play, since we have 30k left in a 38k pot. We can just call and get it in when a 'good' card hits. So i guess the question is, what is a good card, for me the bad cards are.

T J 9 5 diamonds, and any A/K puts us in akward positions but they are kind of unlikely to hit villians range here but still a concern we are now outdrawn. So as i type this, there is actually a lot we can move our stack in on with on the turn. IDK, this is a pretty bad spot no matter what here. But i can see the option of just calling here more clearly now, hopefully you can still add to my thoughts here or correct them.

 

[Himanshu]

if villain has a made straight its not likely that he will raise you on the flop he can have a strong draw with both straight and flush potential so i would either jam on that raise or fold. Looking on your stack size its more likely a fold i will never flat call that raise.

 

[Martinosky11]

I think i would pot control on the flop cause its very multyway. They hit that flop so well and are screaming for a bet to make a check raise. with str8s or monster draws. Check flop and evaluate a blank on turn. Try Flopzilla to emulate thousands of boards and u will be better post flop. gl

 

[PokerFunKid]

Exactly what Himanshu says. I'm either folding or jamming. Think he's checkraising either 2 pair or a draw here. What did he have last 2 hands he check raised?

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Exactly what Himanshu says. I'm either folding or jamming. Think he's checkraising either 2 pair or a draw here. What did he have last 2 hands he check raised?

I didn't get to see what he had the last 2 times he check raised because they folded.

Eventually, I did fold this hand to his turn bet and he whispered under his breath "I had you" and I believe him....but he also seemed really relieved when I folded so I think he might have had 2 pair.

 

[A2345Razz]

I probably fold flop as played...definitely turn bc anything I am ahead of has massive equity on flop anyway.

That being said, I might bet less on flop: something like 3600 or so. I am not looking to GII on that flop, nor am I that upset if I can simply get one OOP player to peel here and play this pot IP on the turn/river.