$225 NLHE MTT: everybody is weak. bluff a double paired board?

[Jacki Burkhart]

This is a live $225 NLHE shootout. We started with 10 players and 10,000 chips. I have to win my table to move on to the next round. We are in the 2nd level maybe 50 hand into the tourney. I have about 12,000 chips. Blinds are 100/200 no antes.

It folds around to the Button who is a very good player. He is hands down one of the region's most accomplished MTT players and consistently wins first or 2nd place in this series of tourneys. He usually plays TAG until the blinds and antes get big then starts applying pressure.

so he open limps his button. That strikes me as very odd.

SB flats

I look down at and I check my option.

3 players to a flop and the pot contains 600.

Flop comes

SB checks, I check and the button leads out for 300.

SB folds and I flat with my gutshot.

Pot contains 1,200 and the turn is the

I check and the button checks.

River is the Pot contains 1,200.

I am first to act. What should I do? Give up? Lead out and fold to any raise? Go for a check raise?

 

[SnowedIn]

Tough, i probably bet this to represent the 5 before he does.

 

[WiZZiM]

leading seems ok here, it's very unlikely he has a chunk of it and is capable of folding. So i lead out here small to make it look like i'm trying to value bet with a 5. which also gives me a pretty good price on a bluff. He might hero call more often, but it should be a profitable play overall and sets you up later to make lighter value bets in the future if he does call you

 

[Ambur]

bet (~t1/3 pot) as said above - seems okish. imo

 

[PBG789]

Main problem I see here is that villain is capable of folding but I also suspect capable of calling here with an A or K. Don't like giving up but this is a viable option here. Ultimately I would probably bet about 2/3 of the pot as I think anything less is getting called and this might be just about the right amount to get a fold.

 

[Ambur]

Main problem I see here is that villain is capable of folding but I also suspect capable of calling here with an A or K. Don't like giving up but this is a viable option here. Ultimately I would probably bet about 2/3 of the pot as I think anything less is getting called and this might be just about the right amount to get a fold.

Nah! Worst option you could ever make! imo

 

[ZekeRam]

I'm trying to learn more about assigning ranges and calculating equity so I'll give this a shot. If I'm doing this wrong, please feel free to provide criticism.

I think that question is whether his range is more likely to fold or call your river bet. Considering the limp on the button, it's unlikely he's holding any Ax or 2 broadway cards. The bet on the flop really doesn't give us any information, he could be holding anything but considering the check on the turn, we can remove J8-J10, 77 and 55 from his range, leaving:

connectors 65-109
pair of 6s
One gappers 86, 97, 108
Q9/Q10
K2s - K8s
K9o/K10o

So there's 7 possible hands out of 19 in his calling range, which means he's folding 63% of his hands to a bet, factoring that he's not calling with K high. So betting here seems profitable in the long run.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I'm trying to learn more about assigning ranges and calculating equity so I'll give this a shot. If I'm doing this wrong, please feel free to provide criticism.

I think that question is whether his range is more likely to fold or call your river bet. Considering the limp on the button, it's unlikely he's holding any Ax or 2 broadway cards. The bet on the flop really doesn't give us any information, he could be holding anything but considering the check on the turn, we can remove J8-J10, 77 and 55 from his range, leaving:

connectors 65-109
pair of 6s
One gappers 86, 97, 108
Q9/Q10
K2s - K8s
K9o/K10o

So there's 7 possible hands out of 19 in his calling range, which means he's folding 63% of his hands to a bet, factoring that he's not calling with K high. So betting here seems profitable in the long run.

I think you're basically correct on your range assignment. Except I don't think he'd limp 66 or the rattiest kings so if I remove those from his range he is playing 14% of hands and will only call with those that have a 7 so he'll call 4.5% of the time or 32%.

If I bet small enough he might call with K high which is obviously bad so I want to bet as small as I can while still getting K hi to fold thus giving me a good price on my bluff.

He is also a great player and capable or raising what he perceives to be a weak river bet; but he's not a maniac he tempers his aggression and shows a lot of restraint.


In game I bet 1/3 of pot; I thought this might look like a suck bet.

He insta mucked before I put the chips in the pot. But I wonder if I shoulda bet a little bigger?

 

[ZekeRam]

You'll only need to bet bigger if you're trying to push out A high+, which seems unlikely in this case. If he wanted to hero call with K high, he'd have to really put you on 86 or 89, which is at the very bottom of your calling range on the flop.

 

[Ambur]

I look down at and I check my option.

3 players to a flop and the pot contains 600.

Flop comes

SB checks, I check and the button leads out for 300.

SB folds and I flat with my gutshot.

Hero has open ended straight draw not a gutshott!

Spoiler

An straight filled "inside". If you have 9s-8s, the flop comes 7c-5h-2d, and the turn is the 6c, you've made your gutshot straight.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Hero has open ended straight draw not a gutshott!

Spoiler

An straight filled "inside". If you have 9s-8s, the flop comes 7c-5h-2d, and the turn is the 6c, you've made your gutshot straight.

You're right. I just typed the wrong term. Brain fart.

 

[Ambur]

I am not sure that villaine will ever limp 77 and 55 preflop??? I do not really know! deep+no ante+IP!

And if he/she (BTN) does limp preflop 55 or 77 - villaine will check turn most of time, if he is tricky player. imo

I mean nobody will ever call villaine on turn with draws! (most of time) + villaine might get extra value, when hero decided to go crazy with possible straight draw on river - but i think hero is smart enough to avoid reverse odds here!