$22 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: over pair on super dry board vs narrow range

[loafes]

poker stars $20+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t400/t800 Blinds + t100 - 9 players - View hand 2609829
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t29725 M = 14.15
BB: t25742 M = 12.26
UTG: t25164 M = 11.98
UTG+1: t9958 M = 4.74
UTG+2: t36395 M = 17.33
MP1: t65370 M = 31.13
MP2: t51989 M = 24.76
Hero (CO): t65008 M = 30.96
BTN: t15943 M = 7.59

Pre Flop: (t2100) Hero is CO with K :spade: K :diamond:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t2304, UTG+2 calls t2304, MP1 calls t2304, 1 fold, Hero raises to t8608, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls t6304, 1 fold

Flop: (t23924) 4 :heart: J :club: 3 :diamond: (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t10400, UTG+2 raises to t27687 all in,

Spoiler

Hero calls t17287

I know this is probably meant to be a fist pump snap call and just chalk out up to a cooler if villain has JJ here.

The problem is I think this is such a gross board because I feel like jacks make up such a huge portion of villains range here. The only hands I beat on this board are QQ and AJ, but QQ 3 bets pre and if villain should be able to fold AJ to my squeeze. I know this is probably a what evs, standard cooler spot but I'm wondering if there is a way to play it differently like checking back the flop to keep villains range a little wider.

Or am I just giving too much credit. It was the micro millions main event, so probably plenty of monkeys playing in it.

Spoiler

I sigh snapped called obviously, villain had JJ and I lost a chance for a stack near the top of the table. Ended up getting a bit more than a min cash but was annoyed since I felt like I was playing so well.

 

[dj11]

IMHO, I think a very common problem is going for a home run when a double will do.

With good-great hands, yet still far from the money, I think about getting a good bump to my stack while maintaining as much pot control as possible. So in my world I raise a little less up front, hoping to still iso, but without the glimmer in my eye aspect. Would a PRF to the 6K range have iso'd villain, or do you think the others might have come along?

When villain checks the flop, at least some of the time he will be trapping with AA or he hit his set. Check back and see another free card (I know how unpopular this idea is). Net result might be the same, for sure villain wants to get it all in, and u still have what appears to be the best hand, and a healthy stack. You know V can't bust you, but there is always danger.

The easy way out is to consider this a cooler.

 

[suby_rafael]

This is obviously a fist pump snap call as you rightly suspect. I do have a problem with your reading of the board.

I don't think it is gross board at all, infact is a very good board and i don't know why it should scare anyone holding an overpair. All three cards are not connected so there is no straight possibility and all three cards are of three different suits which is otherwise called a "rainbow" in poker terms so no flush possibility either. Never give your opponent credit for a set in such scenarios. You just shouldn't - it's not very profitable to put your opponents on set and fold over pairs.

 

[duggs]

IMHO, I think a very common problem is going for a home run when a double will do.

With good-great hands, yet still far from the money, I think about getting a good bump to my stack while maintaining as much pot control as possible. So in my world I raise a little less up front, hoping to still iso, but without the glimmer in my eye aspect. Would a PRF to the 6K range have iso'd villain, or do you think the others might have come along?

When villain checks the flop, at least some of the time he will be trapping with AA or he hit his set. Check back and see another free card (I know how unpopular this idea is). Net result might be the same, for sure villain wants to get it all in, and u still have what appears to be the best hand, and a healthy stack. You know V can't bust you, but there is always danger.

The easy way out is to consider this a cooler.

Don't do this

 

[dj11]

Don't do this

Duggs, If we take out the notion of thinking about alternate ways to think about this situation, and you say 'don't do' what I suggest, then we are left with the only proper way to play this hand (according to duggs) is to shove pre. In this case it very likely ends with the same result. Perhaps V can drop his JJ openers, but the value aspect of KK prevents us from normally shoving KK pre.

My point is that we are still (probably) not ITM, and this looks like a great chance to improve our overall position without too much jeopardy, but we don't need to go crazy. We don't need to think about a small stack killing hand here. Thinking that is the cause of many premature exits. In this case villain is not going away. What we can do is perhaps keep our chances of improving very high compared to the cooler it ended up being. OP's real question is whether we can ever give up our KK here. At least my thinking gives me the opportunity of giving up, whereas your (unstated) process says 'Hell no, full steam ahead'. FWIW, I don't think I could fold to the V shove, but maybe.

Get off your 'anything dj offers is rubbish' tin can and offer a real alternative way to think about this hand.

 

[duggs]

Duggs, If we take out the notion of thinking about alternate ways to think about this situation, and you say don't do what I suggest, then we are left with the only proper way to play this hand (according to duggs) is to shove pre. In this case it very likely ends with the same result.

My point is that we are still (probably) not ITM, and this looks like a great chance to improve our overall position without too much jeopardy, but we don't need to go crazy. We don't need to think about a small stack killing hand here. Thinking that is the cause of many premature exits. In this case villain is not going away. What we can do is perhaps keep our chances of improving very high compared to the cooler it ended up being. OP's real question is whether we can ever give up our KK here. At least my thinking gives me the opportunity of giving up, whereas your (unstated) process says 'Hell no, full steam ahead'. FWIW, I don't think I could fold to the V shove, but maybe.

Get off your 'anything dj offers is rubbish' tin can and offer a real alternative way to think about this hand.

the purpose of our strategy is not to minimise the likelihood of not losing chips, our purpose is to maximise our expected return from our range, 3bet and bet/calling flop accomplishes that. if you want to check flop to induce bluffs, get called by weaker hands, or make another play that offers a higher EV then fine. Im willing to entertain that discussion, recommending a line that minimises losses and returns with the top of our range is non sensical. I wouldn't fold to the shove, I'm happy calling, we have more than enough equity to call.

 

[dj11]

We have to raise pre here, else BTN< SB< BB all have great odds to come along. The PF raise to 8+K (4x) was older school, and it was enough to dissuade BTN, SB, and BB from coming along. Would 3x have done that? The 4x did get the iso we wanted. Without game stats from a tracker we, the reviewing audience, will only be guessing, based on relative stack sizes at the table.

When villain checks the flop, we are left with 2 possibilities; he missed or he hit big. He misses most of the time. When he check raises there every alarm we have is going off. It is very likely that if we bet smaller on the flop, V only comes along rather than shoving back. That too should be clanging those alarms. Once he shoves, unless his stats suggest otherwise, we should normally be giving him max credit for something that can beat us, minus the bluff factor. But we don't have those stats.

So, after V checks the flop, we can bet much smaller, like 1/4 pot, and get some valuable info. Mostly if V didn't hit, he will fold that small bet. If he shoves that, we get to re-evaluate, and I might be more tempted to fold the KK there than if he comes along, checks the turn (where I WOULD check back), then shoves the river. If villain had check called the flop, then checked the turn, and again checks the river, I might be tempted to put in the big river bet, which then gets him to shove. But I might (usually) be glad to see the showdown with what I consider the best hand and a healthy pot.

The above is how I would play a tourney hand under these conditions, a cash hand would play out more along the lines of how the OP played and posted.

IMHO, it's a good hand to analyze the differences between tourney and ring.

 

[loafes]

IMHO, I think a very common problem is going for a home run when a double will do.

With good-great hands, yet still far from the money, I think about getting a good bump to my stack while maintaining as much pot control as possible. So in my world I raise a little less up front, hoping to still iso, but without the glimmer in my eye aspect. Would a PRF to the 6K range have iso'd villain, or do you think the others might have come along?

When villain checks the flop, at least some of the time he will be trapping with AA or he hit his set. Check back and see another free card (I know how unpopular this idea is). Net result might be the same, for sure villain wants to get it all in, and u still have what appears to be the best hand, and a healthy stack. You know V can't bust you, but there is always danger.

The easy way out is to consider this a cooler.

I'm not in it to min cash here. I want play in a way that maximizes my chance of a deep run, so I'm going to try to get the maximum value I can from my big hands. Especially given it is a 55000+ player field.

I also don't really think should ever have aces here, I considered it. But whilst villain might flat the UTG+1 open to trap, he would presumably 4 bet my squeeze 100% of the time. And I don't know if a 6k raise would work purely based on the pay odds the players would be getting. If I make it 6k then its only going to cost 3900 for the players to enter a 9k pot and probably multiway




I'm not really asking if I can let it go here. I am well aware that I'm never folding Kings in this spot, maybe in a higher SPR pot with a different board texture, but not here. What I was really curious about is weather there are alternate ways to play it such as checking back to keep villains range wider. And I had some insight into it.


One thing I didn't think about and it is a useful piece of advice is to bet smaller. Thanks DJ because betting smaller does make a lot sense on this particular board. I mean its not going to alter the end result, but it should have the benefit of keeping in some of villains other hands in.

 

[RamdeeBen]

I'd bet flop like 7k, hope to get called or hope someone spazzes out and shoves on us. Board is soooooooo dry that we just really want anything that can call or think they have FE by either bluff raising or shoving worse.

Never ever folding though I'm very happy when he check shoves all-in. If he somehow has JJ or another set then gg nothing we can do or the slow played AA then whatever it just doesn't happen often enough for us to fold and we're never folding pre or post regardless. We could check on the flop, given how dry it is and hope he bluffs or value bets worse on the turn I'm ok with that, even if an Ace peels on the turn we can still never fold given our line. So long as our objective is to get all the chips in the middle either on the flop or turn and never folding both seem ok. It all comes down to the villain in question and your thoughts on him.

PS: Don't post results. I mean, sure he showed up with JJ here and played it lol. I mean, he should just call your flop bet not shove, so bad. On the rare occasions we CB bluff the turn he just folds out those bluffs. Anyway, JJ actually isn't a huge part of his range like you think, like so rare when he takes this line on the flop. For a start he should be 3B's vs the UTG+1 and then back raise all-in when you ISO pre. Him flatting was pretty terrible, he effectively was set mining with a hand like JJ on 30bb then just played it's horrible when he actually flopped the nuts, whlist coolering the hell out of you. He just had so many unlikely variables on his side and got lucky you paid off with a hand that we have too. We're much more likely to see him have hands like KJ/AJ/QJ here when he takes this line. Don't sweat it.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

This is an interesting discussion on alternate ways to play the hand, but I actually think that OP played it optimally.

Why would we 3bet less preflop? We should 3bet the biggest amount that we think a hand like TT-QQ and AK will call.

On the flop, he checks to us. I fail to see why we would not bet this flop. I mean yeah we could give a free card to try to "induce" action on the turn...or we could just try to get value right now from hands like AJ, TT, QQ.

And while we COULD bet less on the flop....WHY? Hero bet 40% the pot. That is a good Cbet size that will make a hand like TT more comfortable calling.

I agree that once he check raises all in on this flop we have to give JJ some serious thought...it is certainly a possible holding. But it's hard to flop a set and AJ and QQ also make perfect sense given his line. So we call off here and hope he doesn't have the 1 hand in his range that beats us.

 

[WiZZiM]

While I dont think it matters a lot overall. Betting less does two things.

1. Helps villian to call with a slightly wider range of hands. This is villain dependant and we never really know how they will react. But overall players will call wider since its cheaper.

2. Induces the spaz factor. People in general view small bets as weakness and sometimes will spaz out and jam vs it thinking were weak. Of course this is villain dependant and likely a bias of minr from my experience playing.

As mentioned at the start I really dont think it matters alot. But I think around 8 to 9k is the bet size I would choose leaving me with an 19kish shove on turn of called.

 

[Steffel]

This is one of those cases where you have to call and I would be pretty happy in your position to do so. If he has JJ he might just call and hope you fire again on the turn. He would have had to correctly put you on an over pair. I would assume you just had a hand like AK if I were in Villans position and I would just smooth call. I would be scared not to get max value by shoving in that spot.