22 in a clear steal situation but BB shortstacked

[WurlyQ]

3000/6000 blinds 750 ante

Stacks:
* MP1 with 47428
* MP2 with 60294
* MP3 with 48958
* CO with 72229
* BTN with 54808
* SB with 65986
* BB with 15208
* UTG with 64158
* UTG+1 with 62042

Blinds:
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to BTN:2♥ 2♦
* * Sklansky group 7
Preflop:
* * 6 players fold.
* * Hero ???

Is this a shove situation?

 

[Steveg1976]

Where is the bubble? What reads do you have on the blinds? What is your recent image at the table?

Edit: you have an effective M of 3.5 and the BB is a shorty, I would just shove to discourage the SB and expect to be flipping w/bb. FWIW

 

[WurlyQ]

Sorry, forgot.

Well into the money. 18 people remaining. About $5-$10 for finishing outside final table. Top 3 are like $180, $100, $70 or something along those lines.

Note the extremely high blinds. BB is relatively tight and seemingly just trying to place deeper into the money as can be seen by his low stack. SB is just a shove when you have something kind of person (only like 15 hands so not much of a read).

 

[Steveg1976]

BB is relatively tight and seemingly just trying to place deeper into the money as can be seen by his low stack. SB is just a shove when you have something kind of person (only like 15 hands so not much of a read).

The small blind screws you then, If you had 77-88 I think this is an easy shove but with deuces he has to have two over cards paired or unpaired making it a race at best. It is nitty but I think I let this go and shove at a later date.

 

[WVHillbilly]

SB obviously doesn't know we have 22 so he doesn't know that he has overs. I think this is a clear push to steal the blinds and if we get a call we're likely just trying to dodge 6 outs.

 

[silverslugger33]

I'd shove Even if you get called, you likely have 50/50. You have fewer than 10 BBs left, so it's time to get aggressive. Also, if you shove here, hands 33-77 or so probably don't call anyway. At this point, you need to get some chips, so unless you're on the verge of getting much more money when 1 or 2 more people get eliminated, I'd shove.

 

[Steveg1976]

SB obviously doesn't know we have 22 so he doesn't know that he has overs.

ldo,

My point was that we can't be better that 50/50 in the hand because he can't have a card lower. If we had 77 in the spot, there is a good enough chance we get called by A6, K5 etc (let alone being called by a smaller pair and actually being ahead) to shove, 22 is a hand that we absolutely Can't be way ahead and could be crushed that I fold in this spot and wait, also we have already gone through the blinds so we have a few hands time. Just my thought, tifwiw.

This is all considering the read we were given that the sb will shove any reasonable two, if they might actually fold some small pp and over cards QJ, J10 etc then I like shoving better.

 

[baudib1]

I would fold.

 

[WurlyQ]

ldo,

My point was that we can't be better that 50/50 in the hand because he can't have a card lower. If we had 77 in the spot, there is a good enough chance we get called by A6, K5 etc (let alone being called by a smaller pair and actually being ahead) to shove, 22 is a hand that we absolutely Can't be way ahead and could be crushed that I fold in this spot and wait, also we have already gone through the blinds so we have a few hands time. Just my thought, tifwiw.

This is all considering the read we were given that the sb will shove any reasonable two, if they might actually fold some small pp and over cards QJ, J10 etc then I like shoving better.

Just to clarify a little, I said that they shoved a few times. They didn't call a shove. There is a big difference between the two. Kinda interesting that it's being split 50/50 between shove and fold. Going to see if I can get a few more inputs then I'll post the donk move that I made in reality.

 

[baudib1]

To me it's a bad situation because the SB has you covered and you're in terrible shape against his calling range; and if the BB is decent, he should be calling with almost ATC, and you're not a big favorite over anything.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

To me it's a bad situation because the SB has you covered and you're in terrible shape against his calling range; and if the BB is decent, he should be calling with almost ATC, and you're not a big favorite over anything.

umm well to extend a point, if SB only calls with AA we're in terrible shape against his calling range, but shoving would clearly be correct if this were the case. us being "in terrible shape against his calling range" means less the shorter stacked we get. given stacks and the antes this is a shove - we don't mind being called by BB and flipping given the dead money in the pot, and although BB should be calling with ATC a lot of players are bad enough to fold here. we don't even mind getting called by SB and flipping given stacks.

 

[c9h13no3]

I'm shoving almost any 2 here... so 22 is near the top of my range

 

[Benjammn]

While I despise 22, it is as about as good as it gets when you're on the button in such a high blind situation. I'm actually kinda surprised that the blinds are so high with so many people left. I mean, no one at your table has >12bb right now, which is very odd. Have many people been trying to steal recently? Or has the table remained tight despite the high blinds? If you're up against a stealer, this hand has somewhat of a better chance.

 

[WurlyQ]

There were tons of steals going as should be the case with the high blinds. It was a turbo tourney which might explain the high blinds.

The more than I think about this hand, the more I like a shove. The SB is the only one that matters here as if the SB folds, you are up against only the bb where you are getting more than 1.5 to 1 which is good odds against a random hand that might even fold because they are trying to get an extra dollar or two. I guess my focus here should have been the odds of the sb calling an all in. Then I could have done some quick math as whether an all in would be +EV.

In reality, I wasn't paying attention to my chip stack and raised 4x bb which was probably 2nd worst to just calling and then getting pushed all in, calling because I then realized I had ridiculous pot odds, only to discover I was against 55 and lose. Lesson learned.

 

[frisellan]

ok so let me share with you my thought process and you tell me if If I'm crazy.

so 22 shove in CO vs SB / BB

You have a good read on your opponents.

SB will shove with a couple facecards or better
it is possible that he has a couple of face cards yes, will he call a push from you ? (what is your table image?)

BB is not risking anything without a strong PP.
BB is holding a big pocket pair, very unlikely .

So in mind mind it goes something like this.

SB may call if he has some thing like AK, AQ, AJ, AXs, A10, KQ, 22-AA
BB is folding 95% of the time. (5% chance of calling)
If SB calls with anything other than a PP it is a race. PP is dealt one hand out of seventeen on average so unlikely he has over pair. (5.88% calls with an overpair)
so 5% + 5.88%= 10.88% the time you are dead
25% of time you are in a race = 12.5% you'll lose

23.38 % of the time you will lose this hand
35.88 % you will be called and double
54.12 % you will steal the blinds

Am I crazy or does that make sense?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

- SB probably isn't calling with low PPs or low Axs hands.

- BB should be calling with ATC. Where on earth do you get the idea that he's folding 95% of the time from? I guess in practice your average unknown won't call with ATC but I think we can safely say he's calling >75% of the time seeing as he has like 2/5ths of his stack in after posting.

 

[Steveg1976]

23.38 % of the time you will lose this hand
35.88 % you will be called and double
54.12 % you will steal the blinds

I like your think but those percentages add up to 113.38%

 

[Steveg1976]

- BB should be calling with ATC. Where on earth do you get the idea that he's folding 95% of the time from? I guess in practice your average unknown won't call with ATC but I think we can safely say he's calling >75% of the time.

The read by OP on this player was that were just holding on not willing to shove/call.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

yes but there are varying degrees of 'holding on'. unless i've seen him fold numerous times before after posting for 2/5ths of his stack i'm going to assume he has a modicum of common sense and will call wide. suggesting BB is only calling with 5% of hands (like 99+/AK/AJs+/KQs) is taking wishful thinking into a whole new dimension.

plus assuming there are no pay jumps from 18th to the FT there's no real point in 'holding on' anyway if you're going to blind out in a couple of orbits.

 

[Steveg1976]

yes but there are varying degrees of 'holding on'. unless i've seen him fold numerous times before after posting for 2/5ths of his stack i'm going to assume he has a modicum of common sense and will call wide. suggesting BB is only calling with 5% of hands (like 99+/AK/AJs+/KQs) is taking wishful thinking into a whole new dimension.

plus assuming there are no pay jumps from 18th to the FT there's no real point in 'holding on' anyway if you're going to blind out in a couple of orbits.

I don't think that is completely unreasonable, debatable but not unreasonable.

The stakes of the tournament weren't given (or I don't remeber them ) but if this is 1.10 donk-a-thon I have seen people so desperate to make itm or move up a pay level they will play this way as I am sure you have.

 

[dj11]

Having been in BB's shoes, I can see he should be calling with almost ATC, but he also knows he can probably move up a spot , maybe 2 if the structure is good by folding or blinding out. He has already calculated that he can last one more orbit. So he is iffy at worst.

I would consider putting BB all in with the 2's. In this case that might be enough for SB to consider not coming along. SB here will see the advantages of mucking could be better than the advantages of entering, and missing.

SO 16K might be a reasonable bet. If SB shoves, and BB calls, you can fold and put the onus on SB when BB doubles up with A hi!

 

[frisellan]

ok so let me share with you my thought process and you tell me if If I'm crazy.

so 22 shove in CO vs SB / BB

You have a good read on your opponents.

SB will shove with a couple facecards or better
it is possible that he has a couple of face cards yes, will he call a push from you ? (what is your table image?)

BB is not risking anything without a strong PP.
BB is holding a big pocket pair, very unlikely .

So in mind mind it goes something like this.

SB may call if he has some thing like AK, AQ, AJ, AXs, A10, KQ, 22-AA
BB is folding 95% of the time. (5% chance of calling)
If SB calls with anything other than a PP it is a race. PP is dealt one hand out of seventeen on average so unlikely he has over pair. (5.88% calls with an overpair)
so 5% + 5.88%= 10.88% the time you are dead
25% of time SB has two face cards and you are in a race = 12.5% you'll lose

23.38 % of the time you will lose this hand
35.88 % you will be called and double
54.12 % you will steal the blinds

Am I crazy or does that make sense?

I like your think but those percentages add up to 113.38%

you are right hmm. . . . of ya I also said I'm crazy


Lets see here licks pencil, scratches butt.

10.88% you are drawing dead
(called by big blind or small blind drawing dead to a bigger pocket pair)
12.5% you lose race
(called by small blind with two face cards and lose the race)
12.5% you win race
(called by small blind and you win the race doubling your stack)
64.12% you steal blinds
(Big blind and small blind fold)

so
23.38% you lose
12.5% you double
64.12% you steal the blinds

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

for a proper EV calculation you need to distinguish the % of the time you lose your stack vs. the % of the time you lose 15k (BB's stack).

regardless i'm sure it will show shoving is best here.

 

[frisellan]

thought about this post when I was in a SnG
down to three players. M of about 4.5
Blinds 400/800
My stack 5,XXX FTA 8,XXX SB 4,XXX
min raised by FTA
(FTA had been raising with any two face cards)
SB folded
BB (ME PP 22) thinks about it, including this post
reraise all in - Thinking/hoping he will fold or I have a race on my hands
FTA calls shows KJ os
I survive race double up and go on to win SnG

 

[WurlyQ]

Math from my perspective (roughly):
SB has a 25% chance of calling (this means about 70% overs, 30% pair)
If SB calls, BB has a 50% chance of calling
If SB folds, BB has a 66% chance of calling

Chance that SB calls BB calls: ~12.5% (EV = 49k)
20% of 125k
50% of 0
30% of 80k

Chance that SB calls BB folds: ~12.5% (EV = 44k)
40% of 110k
60% of 0

Chance that SB folds BB calls: 50% (EV = 58k)
45% of 80k
55% of 40k

Chance that SB folds BB folds: 25% (EV = 70k)
100% of 70k

This all adds up to an expected value of about 60k (compared to 55k of folding) with about a 15% chance to bust. I think I gave relatively generous odds to their calling ranges so I have to go with shoving as the best move here.