$215 NLHE STT: Step 4, Call or Fold Spot?

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 25/16/7

So, in a Step 4, I already have another Step 4 locked up for finishing Top 4. If I get top 2, I win a Step 5 ticket worth $700. The game at the moment is pretty much basic bubble play. I don't really like having to call a shove as opposed to having the short stack call, but I think I'm ahead of his range most of the time with AJs, but then I'm not really an accomplished STT player. His range IMO, is Ax hands, pairs and broadway cards. Since I crush almost all his Ax hands and broadway hands and I'm flipping against his pairs, I think this is a call, but would be interested in other views.

Here's the hand:

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 215 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (3 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Hero (BB) (t4649)
Button (t6066)
SB (t2785)

Hero's M: 15.50

Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, J

1 fold, SB bets t2785 (All-In),

Simple question, call or fold?

 

[silverfox432]

Call !

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

381,843,792 games 0.477 secs 800,511,094 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.263% 54.29% 02.97% 207320909 11333813.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 42.737% 39.77% 02.97% 151855256 11333813.50 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Thanks for that Silverfox.

I wonder if a simple run through pokerstove is too simplistic? Do we not have to take into account ICM? Surely we only want to be calling here when we're crushing his range, not holding a 57/43 margin. A call and loss here puts us as the short stack at the table and in tough shape to move on to Step 5.

 

[silverfox432]

Poker is all about odds and for me 57/43 is good enough you have 13% more equity in the hand than the hand your putting him on ... now 43 times out of a 100 he is going to win, however you have to wiegh that against the odds that your going to get a better hand before the blinds eat up you your stack. You may also be assuming his calling with the top of his range when in reality his probaly not

Make this call 100 times you win 57 to me thats profit

I call

 

[Pascal-lf]

Snap calllllll!

 

[Poker Orifice]

Poker is all about odds and for me 57/43 is good enough you have 13% more equity in the hand than the hand your putting him on ... now 43 times out of a 100 he is going to win, however you have to wiegh that against the odds that your going to get a better hand before the blinds eat up you your stack. You may also be assuming his calling with the top of his range when in reality his probaly not

Make this call 100 times you win 57 to me thats profit

I call

great but what about 'ICM' ? (surely you're not just basing calls in bubble spots where you figure to be ahead?)
OP, I'm calling here in this spot too (but not based on what's been said ^ above here in silver's post).
I haven't played any of the Step SNG on Stars so I'm not sure what they'd be like in a $215 step but part of my decisions would be based on player reads (ie. is villain a $5 avg. buyin playing way above typical buyin level, are they are reg. who's winning the $33 turbos, etc.) This for sure affects the range we put them on (ie. typically we can rule out AA, KK, QQ if it's a micro player cuz I really doubt they're shoving instead of just raising here, whereas a reg. will more likely be shoving their entire range).
You could do a calculation (based on ICM) if you feel like jerkin' around with math for awhile (or plug it into WIZ).

 

[silverfox432]

great but what about 'ICM' ? (surely you're not just basing calls in bubble spots where you figure to be ahead?)

Make me an icm argument then !

OP asked
Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, J

1 fold, SB bets t2785 (All-In),

Simple question, call or fold?

I think icm just complicates things to me it's a snap call... but I'm a simple guy

 

[Poker Orifice]

Make me an icm argument then !

OP asked
Preflop: Hero is BB with A

, J

1 fold, SB bets t2785 (All-In),

Simple question, call or fold?

I think icm just complicates things to me it's a snap call... but I'm a simple guy

Make me an 'argument'(<?) that says ICM is unimportant in bubble situations.

 

[silverfox432]

Make me an 'argument'(<?) that says ICM is unimportant in bubble situations.

hey bud don't get the hump ! lol

who says its unimportant... i was just answering the guys question in the original post

ffs

Chill

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Seems the general consensus, with or without ICM and what have you is call.

 

[RamdeeBen]

I call.

I agree with PO, I think it depends more on the player. As for ICM, I'm not up to date with that stuff at all...personally like most know, I'm not one for making ICM calls either even if it means I'm losing. Stupid, I know but I can't get my head around so go more of how I've seen someone playing and IF I think I'm ahead of his range, I call.

On another note jonboy, not seen you for a while posting or playing!

What you doing in these high stake games?!?

Have you grinded your way through the steps? If so, very impressive..

You're not tilting again are you?

 

[silverfox432]

Did you call?

Did you win the ticket...

suspense is killing me ..

 

[Shufflin]

Just to be difficult, I'm gonna fold You've basically got another round of blinds at the same level (100/200+ante) and I'd rather be the one shoving. Let him think he owns you, and widen his range a little bit.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

I call.

I agree with PO, I think it depends more on the player. As for ICM, I'm not up to date with that stuff at all...personally like most know, I'm not one for making ICM calls either even if it means I'm losing. Stupid, I know but I can't get my head around so go more of how I've seen someone playing and IF I think I'm ahead of his range, I call.

On another note jonboy, not seen you for a while posting or playing!

What you doing in these high stake games?!?

Have you grinded your way through the steps? If so, very impressive..

You're not tilting again are you?

Yeah, I've not been posting too much last week or so. My girlfriend was back from uni for a few days and I been working hard.

Was grinding the cash tables in spare time and yesterday won about $95 (9 BIs up and unlocked $50 bonus) at 5NL so thought I'd stick $7.50 in a Step 1, drawn in by the allure of the World Series coverage.

Won step 1, first try. Took two retries at Step 2, two 3rd place finishes, then got 1st for Step 3, won that first go and then 3rd in the Step 4.

They're really fun, but it's kinda crazy that I'm playing in a game that represents like half of my bankroll. Also unlocking some bonuses and these things give me madd FPPs for a $215 and $82 buy-ins so I'm happy.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Nice job.

Are they easy then? I wonder if they are good for grinding, then again I really need to work on my STT game first.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

I wouldn't say they were easy, I mean to go on a run like that, I've had some run good of course and picked up good cards in spots. I think I play better in these games though, because I know, generally, I'm up against better players. As you go up, the fish ratio naturally decreases, but even at 215, there's soft spots at the table.

And Shufflin, I can definitely make a solid argument for folding. I have a healthy stack and in general, I'm in control here and I have time to find a better spot than being a marginal favourite v his range.

Do we want results then?

 

[BluffYou123]

Good to see you doing well John. Yes, we want results! I'm calling there too expecting to have him dominated, I'll go with A8o for villain.

 

[Shufflin]

The Steps are good VPP boosters, if you're into that. I've always traded for a $215 tourney ticket, hoping to ITM and go for bankroll. This month my BR can't even justify a Step1, so off my radar for now. Good times, though...

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Good to see you doing well John. Yes, we want results! I'm calling there too expecting to have him dominated, I'll go with A8o for villain.

Spoiler

A9 for villain. Flop 494. turn and river bricked. Came 3rd.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

The Steps are good VPP boosters, if you're into that. I've always traded for a $215 tourney ticket, hoping to ITM and go for bankroll. This month my BR can't even justify a Step1, so off my radar for now. Good times, though...

Yeah, I'm considering going for a $215 S&G, but tbh, I did this to go for the passport. It's a dumb long shot, but a bit of run good and who knows? Might rethink it if I get to$700.

 

[BluffYou123]

Spoiler

Ouch, that's sick. My guess wasn't too bad. Really unlucky mate but that's how it goes sometimes. Hope ya get the win on your next attempt.

 

[Poker Orifice]

I'll put in an argument for a fold here shortly.. when I've got a bit of time.

 

[only_bridge]

Its tough, depends on his range.
I bet he would play TT+ differently. Would he play AK differently as well? What about 56s?

I would base it on my reads on the player.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Sigh. Second time around, Third again.

 

[JohnBoyWWFC]

Its tough, depends on his range.
I bet he would play TT+ differently. Would he play AK differently as well? What about 56s?

I would base it on my reads on the player.

It's pretty difficult to get solid reads on a player 3 handed when not really any hand have gone to showdown. It's pretty much stealing and restealing at this point.