$20 NLHE STT: Shortstack on bubble, shove or fold?

[M33K3R]

$20 NL HE STT: Shortstack on bubble, shove or fold?

This is on the bubble in a 9 man, 4 left. My stack is crippled as I lost most of my chips the last hand by my queens losing to AK. I don't have my hand history handy, but this is a run down.

The blinds are 250-500 with no ante. I am on the button with 975 chips. The small and big blind have big stacks of around 5000 a piece. The other shortstack has 325 chips and is utg ( he will be big blind next hand). I get AQ of spades on the button. Do I shove here for the rest of my stack, or do I fold since the other shortstack will be all- in the next hand, since if he gets knocked out I will be ITM.

Both big stacks will be getting over 2-1 on there money if they both call, and both have called in similair situations with bad holdings. I assume they will both call, which will decrease my chances of winning.

 

[doops]

a) I'd shove. AQ is likely to win. If both big stacks call, I'll triple up if I win and be back in the game. Woohoo! If I bubble, so be it.

b) I'd fold and hope the other short stack busts on the blind. But then I'm pretty much doomed to get 3rd place at best. I'd be unlikely to catch a hand as good as AQ for awhile, so if the other short stack survives, I'm likely the bubble baby.

I've done both. I prefer a). At least I go out aggressively with a good hand, not pathetically. It keeps my self-esteem intact. But I usually do b), as I prefer to cash.

 

[shinedown.45]

Easy fold IMO.
You're crippled and only have a chance of gaining more chips by getting lucky, if you had been down to three then this would be a simple all in.

 

[trashcan]

This is the worlds easiest fold if you have any idea about ICM.

You only can push AA here and KK is close cos you can be called by 2 players and doubling is not increasing your chances to get 2nd or 1st significantly, I guess I fold KK too

Edit: Dont get me wrong but if you dont know this is a super snap fold, you shoul be playing in lower limits, again no offense, this is just a friendly advice

 

[JustRaiseTheBlinds]

I don't get why you ppl say you have to fold here...

You never let go AQ with this stack with 2 ppl behind...

You can get in here with the best hand...why waiting to see if the shorty maybe get busted...

 

[jordanbillie]

So what do you do on the next hand when the shorty is allin with his BB?

Let's say you get an average looking hand like QJ o/s. Do you call, push or fold?

 

[mrjohnson911]

this is an easy fold...
if you push you may be called by both blinds who very well might check it down... AQ against two opponents isnt really in good shape..
also the utg is so low on chips, that even if he survives his BBallin he will probably be allin the hand afterwords in the sB...

-->easy fold

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

And I disagree. If you are not aiming for winning then don't play tourneys. Stick to cash games. You are not going to be in better position to have a chance to double or triple up. If you just want to get in the money then why don't you just sit out the rest of the game? You will accomplish the same, maybe. So what happens if you fold and the ss doubles up? That leaves you as the ss with a real crappy position. Push your AQ here.

 

[M33K3R]

I did fold my AQ, small blind called and big blind checked. It was checked down and I would have lost. The supershort stack won the next hand and I got knocked out. I used ICM to conclude that I should have folded. If I were heads up I would have shoved. I was just curious if folding was the right play.

 

[GeoffLacey]

yeah pretty sure this is a super standard fold with utg being so short

 

[KaptainJim]

I was surpised too that you had to fold the AQ but when I checked ICM of this move I found out that it was totally wrong. AQ wins again 2 random hands about 48%. While you will collect a lot of chips if you triple up you are still the shortstack if you get in the money and possibly you will finish in the 3rd place anyway.

Actually you can play JJ+.

 

[Sysvr4]

I'm not sure I agree this is such an easy fold. Even by ICM standards.

If I'm doing the math right, ICM says you have the following tourney equity:

1. Fold = $11
2. Push and do not get called = $14
3. Push and get called once and win = $17.5
4. Push and get called twice and win = $20

I think most of the time you're going to get called at least once, but you're going to win that about 65% of the time (you get called by worse aces a lot). Let's say you get called 70% of the time once, 15% of the time twice and win that 48% of the time, and 15% of the time they fold.

(.70*17.5*.65) + (.15*14) + (.15*20*.48) = 11.5

With those assumptions, you're money ahead to shove. The trouble with ICM, hand ranges, and all the other BS we spend this much time calculating is that the assumptions we make may skew our calculations one way or another, and there are no hard and fast rules on those.

It's also early and I've had little sleep and less coffee so even money says I screwed something up, but I'm shoving here either way.

 

[strims]

Not sure I agree with all those who are saying this is an obvious fold. Sure, if you pass you stand a chance of laddering, but if you push, get called and win, which we've already been told is a 48% chance, you've got just shy of 3K with the two big stacks having around 4K, I'd be happy with that position, at least it gives you something to play with. I'm not keen on ICM, mostly because I haven't got the patience to sit down and properly learn about it, but also because I don't like the idea that in any given situation there is a right and a wrong answer in poker, because I don't believe there is.
Personally, in this situation I would play whatever felt right, sometimes folding, sometimes pushing, but always making the decision myself based on feel, rather than what something/somebody else tells me is the 'right' call.
To me, either decision could be justified in this situation. Just my humble opinion.

 

[Sysvr4]

...I don't like the idea that in any given situation there is a right and a wrong answer in poker, because I don't believe there is.

You and I are going to get along just fine. *high five*

 

[dantheman91]

I honestly would of gone all-in. I kind of disagree with ICM here. Number one, if the UTG player survives you're probably not going to get this good a hand again. This hand theoretically is the 6th strongest you can have. Also, I don't really care about placing in the money, I want to win. Then again I only play .25/45pl s-n-gos. (so I don't have that much money on the line) If you went all in and if the BB called you, there would be $2,300 or so in the pot, and the BB would be down to $4,000. I think that's enough chips to get back in the game.

 

[strims]

*high five*

Right back at you my friend.

 

[chipshuffler]

And I disagree. If you are not aiming for winning then don't play tourneys. Stick to cash games. You are not going to be in better position to have a chance to double or triple up. If you just want to get in the money then why don't you just sit out the rest of the game? You will accomplish the same, maybe. So what happens if you fold and the ss doubles up? That leaves you as the ss with a real crappy position. Push your AQ here.

Finally....i was scrolling down the post and waiting for this exact post!

Why would you play a tournament if your just gonna try and just make the pay? You wanna WIN tournaments, and by doing this you gotta take chances, go all in in this situation and possibly triple up.

You need to take the gamble. If you dont, your relying on everybody else and your playing way too tight. Just play aggressively on the bubble at almost all situations.

Good luck!

 

[jordanbillie]

I seriously want to know what you "ICM" experts say about the next hand, when the shorty is allin on his big blind. Do we push any hand, call any hand? I rarely play single table sngs, and I am super rarely in a spot like OP is in.

Do we push anything better than "average"?

 

[KaptainJim]

I seriously want to know what you "ICM" experts say about the next hand, when the shorty is allin on his big blind. Do we push any hand, call any hand? I rarely play single table sngs, and I am super rarely in a spot like OP is in.

Do we push anything better than "average"?

Ahh.. thats a tricky one....

I feel that you CALL with any better than average hand, going to an allin if a bigstack raises, because all u need here is not to have the worst of the three hands. If one or two just call, so much the better. Shoving might make the others fold, leaving you alone to pull the task.

A more complex situation is that when the miniscule stack isnt automatically allin, but has some chips left to call. Then it depends on how greedy the bigstacks are. If you call here, an excellent opportunity rises for the bigstacks to accumulate more chips with a raise, which it might make both shortstacks to fold, despite the auto-calling pot odds !!

 

[sky4ever]

Finally....i was scrolling down the post and waiting for this exact post!

Why would you play a tournament if your just gonna try and just make the pay? You wanna WIN tournaments, and by doing this you gotta take chances, go all in in this situation and possibly triple up.

You need to take the gamble. If you dont, your relying on everybody else and your playing way too tight. Just play aggressively on the bubble at almost all situations.

Good luck!

in a small tournament (<400 players) it`s a shove indeed, playing for 1st mentality applies here, etc, but this is a 9 man sngo where you need a different approach, specifically in this kind of spots where your long term success is quite higher if you win 3rd place almost 100% of the time in this spot if you fold.

 

[OzExorcist]

Why would you play a tournament if your just gonna try and just make the pay?

There's a difference to playing a tournament to win, and being crippled with less than 2BB in your stack on the bubble. At some point you have to admit that playing to win takes a back seat to just cashing - I put it to you that having less than 2BB in your stack is one of those points. Plus this is an STT, not an MTT, as sky4ever has pointed out. As soon as the bubble bursts 60% of the total prize pool is locked up and the game changes dramatically as soon as that happens.

Which makes the question which is better for our chances of cashing - folding or shoving? With the super-short stack being all in blind next hand I'm inclined to fold. If we shove and nobody calls we're still super-short. If we shove and do get called we'll be at risk and most of the time we'll only be 60-40 at best. And even if we do double through, we'll still only have just over 4BB and our best hope is still having the short stack bust on the next hand. So why risk ourselves in the meantime?

 

[KaptainJim]

in a small tournament (<400 players) it`s a shove indeed, playing for 1st mentality applies here, etc, but this is a 9 man sngo where you need a different approach, specifically in this kind of spots where your long term success is quite higher if you win 3rd place almost 100% of the time in this spot if you fold.

There's a difference to playing a tournament to win, and being crippled with less than 2BB in your stack on the bubble. At some point you have to admit that playing to win takes a back seat to just cashing - I put it to you that having less than 2BB in your stack is one of those points. Plus this is an STT, not an MTT, as sky4ever has pointed out. As soon as the bubble bursts 60% of the total prize pool is locked up and the game changes dramatically as soon as that happens.

Which makes the question which is better for our chances of cashing - folding or shoving? With the super-short stack being all in blind next hand I'm inclined to fold. If we shove and nobody calls we're still super-short. If we shove and do get called we'll be at risk and most of the time we'll only be 60-40 at best. And even if we do double through, we'll still only have just over 4BB and our best hope is still having the short stack bust on the next hand. So why risk ourselves in the meantime?

Exactly. Thats the huge diffirence

 

[fattychaddy]

i woulda pushed and crossed my fingers.you are so short stacked it would be worth the risk.