$2 NLHE STT: AA vs. 3 all ins

[bubbasbestbabe]

$2 NL HE STT: AA vs. 3 all ins

Players are what they are usually in a micro SNG. Mixture of LAG and TAG. I'm facing 3 all ins. Fold or call here?

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HAND #1
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Full Tilt, 40/80 blinds NL Hold'em Tourney, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: 1,490 (18.6 bb)
UTG+2: 1,300 (16.3 bb)
Hero (MP1): 3,380 (42.3 bb)
MP2: 3,290 (41.1 bb)
MP3: 1,465 (18.3 bb)
CO: 1,285 (16.1 bb)
SB: 1,290 (16.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with A

A

UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to 240, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to 1,465 and is all-in, CO calls 1,285 and is all-in, SB folds, BB calls 1,385,
Hero?

 

[c9h13no3]

Assumptions: After an all in, only 1 player is left standing.

If you fold, you will have 24% tournament equity with 3140 chips.
If you call and win, you will have 39% tournament equity with 7380 chips.
If you call and lose, you will have 17% tournament equity with 1890 chips.

[0.39*E + 0.17*(1-E)] - [0.24] = 0

Solve for E, your equity required to call, and you get 0.32%. In just about every scenario, aces will have around 50% equity.

This is a snap-call & fist-pump. But notice that the immediate pot odds you're getting are ~3:1 or 25%. But in a tournament you need 32% for your call to be break even.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Jesus C9, do you have a calculator for a mind?

And do you do this for every hand that you play that has some scenario like this?

 

[c9h13no3]

And do you do this for every hand that you play that has some scenario like this?

Nah, you just do a few for whatever game you play. When I started playing stud 8, I would crank a lot of hands in the odds calculators. After a 10 or so hands, you start to get an intuitive sense for when you're ahead & behind.

Like, if you crank a bunch of tournament hands, you'll realize that you need a bigger edge in a tournament than in a cash game. So instead of analyzing each decision like this, you can just think "Is this close to break even or a big edge?" And if its a big edge, you can shove away. If its breakeven, then you can consider folding.

No one does math like this at the table. But once you do it enough, you start to get a feel for how big an edge you have in most situations you'll encounter. I actually ran through the math myself, because I'm playing more tournaments these days and I just wondered what the math would say about what looks like an obvious call.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

What odds calculator do you use? I haven't used one but now I'm intrigued. Besides HE I play a lot of PLO and Stud/8.

 

[c9h13no3]

What odds calculator do you use? I haven't used one but now I'm intrigued. Besides HE I play a lot of PLO and Stud/8.

Google the following: The Troutulator, twodimes.net, and ICM calculator

 

[mattzan]

Well.. i don't use too much math here... I would call hahaha AA with 3 Allins... very nice for me.. but.. the expert said there.. he is very good... gratz.

 

[flint]

I also agree that it is very good to do the maths in a lot of situations. Im not a maths guy myself, but just having a grasp of what kind of odds and percentages you have or need in the most common situations will help your game a whole lot.

And I think in most situations im not folding aces ever.

 

[Implied Odds3]

I would call even without the math.. This is a good chance to get a lot of chips and you are not even that low on chips if you get unlucky.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Would you call the all in if this was the bubble hand?
What about 2 hours into a MTT with another two to go?

 

[Lazmansa]

Call,no,dont call,no,call,no,dont call,no,CALL

Just doing my math out loud

Would call here.

Lazmansa