$2 NLHE STT: 99 shove / fold decision on bubble

[OzExorcist]

$2 NL HE STT: 99 shove / fold decision on bubble

After a few thoughts on this one - villain in the hand has been aggressive and raising a lot of pots since we got five-handed. I've been raising the rest of them and the other two players have been playing very tight. Standard STT structure so we're one away from the money.

Seat 5: 0sodangerous (2,825)
Seat 6: intueri (2,570)
Seat 7: Stratval (4,080)
Seat 8: OzExorcist (4,025)
0sodangerous posts the small blind of 150
intueri posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OzExorcist [9h 9c]
Stratval raises to 900
OzExorcist wants to know WWKLD?

Obviously the decision is either shove or fold, question is, which is it?

 

[AceZWylD]

fold, at worst this puts you in second position on the bubble. you have rougly 1/3 as many chips as 3rd and 4th. a shove here potentially puts you out. i'd wait for a better spot.

just curious why you wouldn't consider a call here.

 

[MaxiRodriguez]

Seing as im woeful at giving advice this is what the wiz said.
Glad I did it now, as previously I would've probably shoved, Guess im off my game.
I personally don't like the call as im guessing villain will c bet almost any flop, and any flop with overs is scary. Short stack doesn't help matters. Push fold imo.

 

[c9h13no3]

2 Things I'm Considering:

1) We have villain covered, and he should be folding pretty much everything since he doesn't want to bust out before the shorties. So I think we get a lot of folds in this spot.

2) We benefit from having the bubble go on as long as possible, so even when we fold, we go back to a pretty favorable situation (being the big stack at the bubble).

I think its a fold, especially if this villain calls loose. If we can get a fold from stuff like KQ, AT, AJ, then shoving gets better, but I don't see that happening in a $2 SnG.

 

[HipHopStoner]

I would consider a call-fold even though it's thought of as a bad play... why not try to hit a set and maybe crack whatever pockets he's holding.

Just remember to fold if you don't hit.

 

[c9h13no3]

I would consider a call-fold even though it's thought of as a bad play... why not try to hit a set and maybe crack whatever pockets he's holding.

Just remember to fold if you don't hit.

odds of hitting a set is about 7:1. It costs us 900 chips to win 4475, or 4.9:1 pot odds. And that's if we win his stack EVERY SINGLE TIME that we hit a set. So even if we stack him every time we hit a set, this is a guaranteed way to lose money. Stop giving "advice".

God responses like that tilt me. People come on a poker forum to win money, and you offer them advice that's guaranteed to lose them money. Do you understand how ridiculous that is?

 

[Aaronftw]

Odds of hitting a set is about 7:1. It costs us 900 chips to win 4475, or 4.9:1 pot odds. And that's if we win his stack EVERY SINGLE TIME that we hit a set. So even if we stack him every time we hit a set, this is a guaranteed way to lose money. Stop giving "advice".

God responses like that tilt me. People come on a poker forum to win money, and you offer them advice that's guaranteed to lose them money. Do you understand how ridiculous that is?

As a senior member with a vast level of playing experience you should also be patient and understanding in the fact we are all here to learn. I know statements/thoughts like these are easy to be upset by when you know better, but that's what we are all here for. Thank you for explaining the mathmatical side to him though, sometimes PP are way to easy to shove. I agree with the folding and set mining this late at the bubble is pointless. All 3 bets are push or fold.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Odds of hitting a set is about 7:1. It costs us 900 chips to win 4475, or 4.9:1 pot odds. And that's if we win his stack EVERY SINGLE TIME that we hit a set. So even if we stack him every time we hit a set, this is a guaranteed way to lose money. Stop giving "advice".

God responses like that tilt me. People come on a poker forum to win money, and you offer them advice that's guaranteed to lose them money. Do you understand how ridiculous that is?

+1
.... perhaps he doesn't understand that to be set-mining we really need to be ALOT deeper than this (typically you'd want your's & villain's stack to be ~15x the size of the bet (in this case ~13,000 chips each).. some situations might warrant set-mining at 10x the size of bet if we're pretty certain we're taking villain's stack (but how can we be sure of that...we can't.. that's why 15x is suggested... some say 20x).

I'd say fold here in this spot... although in a higher buyin SNG I'd consider shipping it (player read dependent). You're basically stuck with the guessing game in micro SNG's (more so typically in the $5-$10 range where more of the players have a decent knowledge about ICM but many don't) - - How much does villlain know about ICM?.... how much does villain figure I know about ICM? (ie. if you shove over here, villain really can't call unless they're specifically sitting on AA, maybe KK.... BUT.. do they know that? In a $2 sng, typically they don't).

 

[OzExorcist]

OK, results. I folded and villain took the pot down uncontested, thanks everyone for the feedback

And yeah, Melasure / HipHop the reason I'm not even considering a flat call is what's been said above - neither of us have deep enough stacks to be set mining and overcards will come on the board way too often for us to continue without a set.