$2 NLHE MTT Turbo: FT - JQs hero?

[Ambur]

No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 5 Players, FT
blinds 5k/10k
SB: 304,573 (30.5 bb)
Hero (BB): 119,219 (11.9 bb)
MP: 503,024 (50.3 bb)
CO: 293,550 (29.4 bb)
BTN: 549,634 (55 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with QJs
MP raises to 25,500, 2 folds, SB calls 20,500, Hero?

mp 24/20 sample 181; SB 28/20 sample 85
structure 15 minutes blinds online tournament! NO TURBO format as i said at title of tourney!

 

[WiZZiM]

Well you can't really call with your stack size.

Which leaves two options.
folding

or jamming.

Folding seems fine and can never be a huge mistake, leaving ourselves with a 10bb stack to jam with. However we are in last place and need to make a move soon.

Jamming seems like we have no folding equity, or little folding equity as we are vsing two players one of whom is the chip leader and can afford to easily call us wide, the SB also has a decent stack who decided to flat the original raise from the SB meaning his range is pretty decent.

Lastly our hand type is one that runs pretty well, however it's also pretty easily dominated by the KQ AK AQ AJ type hands we are likely to get calls from, a hand like 87s might do better here if we had folding equity. But since i don't believe we really do have much FE here and since we can't really shove this for value and we're not yet in desperation mode, i think this is a clear fold.

 

[PCK]

I would fold here and looking for a better spot ,you can only play fold or all`in ,any Ax pocket pairs here is shove

 

[horizon12]

Without stats here it is impossible say anything... We need to know, as played the chip leader, if loosely and many steals easy shove, if tag we need fold in FT, and better find other pot....

 

[Ambur]

BTN is solid TAG haven't seen him out of line! My comment on this hand is pretty simple push or fold! Seems we are running into MP hand range pretty big and even suited holding is too weak here, then probably snap fold is pretty decent play here since blinds going up 15 minutes per round! Thanks for comments fellows!

 

[Flayst]

If it was just the big stacks raise on the table, it might be a situation where you could feel good about jamming it as you don't have much time to come up with a better hand, but with the SB calling that raise with a 30BB stack, I think the fold becomes automatic. His call means you are likely dominated by one or both of them. Especially since this is the final table, if you can sit there and watch 1 or 2 more people get knocked out, that is a huge difference in winnings.

 

[Ambur]

but with the SB calling that raise with a 30BB stack, I think the fold becomes automatic.

Which hands SB will play most often cold calling (OOP)?

 

[Flayst]

Which hands SB will play most often cold calling (OOP)?

That is something noone can answer definitively without having been at the table. That question is what you need to ask yourself before you make your decision. The stats you posted show us that both MP and SB are playing pretty typical TAG, with SB maybe being a bit looser but since you are shorthanded that could have something to do with that number. So the MP being the Big Stack may be playing a little outside his normal range, but the SB being OOP is probably going to mean he is playing well within his range, and more likely at the upper end of it. So QJs is probably within the SB calling range but on the lower end of it for this hand, meaning you are AT BEST on equal footing with him.

You don't necessarily need to pin the SB down to a tight range right now, your stack size dictates that you either shove or fold, as has been said above. Because those are your only two options, you just have to determine whether shoving is a good move. When you do decide to shove, you want to be in a spot that's better than a coinflip, but with 2 players already showing a commitment to the hand, that puts you at a strong disadvantage should they both decide to call.

So all that just says that folding is probably more correct here in many ways. Of course the argument could be made for shoving, and it would be a convincing argument I'm sure, but in the moment shoving is going to be a very bold and VERY RISKY move, whereas noone is going to argue that you had ample reason to fold it and wait for a better spot.

 

[Ambur]

I would not worry about SB hand because against his cold calling range we are basically coin flipping imo. I am pretty much worrying initial bettor whome hand range tend to go in my JQs range so hard that i just can not ship it (hard decision for me)!
I would rather take coin flip then blinded dead, there is really not much time for fancy play! My stack is really small compared of other players! Since i noticed most likely i can not get those player fold preflop their ranges, so best play here should be clear (as you said Flayst) fold!
But i do not mind people who willing to take that risk and just jam here their last blinds in! Since SB cold called i quickly asumed that he have most likely Lower pair then JJ, since we are holding JQ and higher pairs like KK, AA he probably would 3bet. SB range imo (TT-22 or some sort postflop value hands x% of the time ). And against lower pair we are coinflipping! Well if that thinking is correct then what should have MP player? I do not know..
If my holding would non suited i would really have easier decision to make! Have to note that it is 5 handed and good cards not come so often! :S

During the discussion i came up conclusin that i really do not get MP or SB or both of them fold and have to fold my hand since this is most likely -ev shove!

Thanks again fellows!

 

[WiZZiM]

the only question that needs to be answered really is how much do you think they will fold here when we have a standardish looking player and a player who might call a bit more. but both have stacks to call off our jam..

so how much fold equity do we have here as working out ranges for these guys hoping we mighy have the best hand is really unimportant compared to how often they fold and how much this play is worth to us as a risk reward vs our other option which is jamming our 10bb stack in in unopened pots in future situations

 

[hffjd2000]

Different opinions here because of pot odds and semi-decent hand.

I believe its either fold or shove.

Since its non turbo, i think folding is a safe choice here.

 

[spiderman637]

Depending on ur stack size and ur position i think the best way to play here is to shove it...