$2 NLHE: After turn - All-in or fold?

[Suited Frenzy]

$2 NL HE: After turn - All-in or fold?

It's towards the end of the tourney, only 5 of us left & 1 player is really ssd. I'm on a good draw after the turn hits but the board is paired & I'm not quite sure what kind of value I have if I just call. If I just call & happen to miss, I'd lose 1/4 of my stack for nothing.

It's either fold or shove IMO, what would you do?

Full Tilt, 300/600 blinds, 75 ante NL Hold'em Tourney, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: 14,400 (24 bb)
MP: 18,445 (30.7 bb)
CO: 2,470 (4.1 bb)
BTN: 12,400 (20.7 bb)
Hero (SB): 12,285 (20.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with T

K

3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

Flop: (1,575) 9

9

8

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 1,225, Hero calls 1,225

Turn: (4,025) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 2,500, Hero ?

 

[shinedown.45]

It's towards the end of the tourney, only 5 of us left & 1 player is really ssd. I'm on a good draw after the turn hits but the board is paired & I'm not quite sure what kind of value I have if I just call. If I just call & happen to miss, I'd lose 1/4 of my stack for nothing.

It's either fold or shove IMO, what would you do?

Full Tilt, 300/600 blinds, 75 ante NL Hold'em Tourney, 5 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

BB: 14,400 (24 bb)
MP: 18,445 (30.7 bb)
CO: 2,470 (4.1 bb)
BTN: 12,400 (20.7 bb)
Hero (SB): 12,285 (20.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with T

K

3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks

Flop: (1,575) 9

9

8

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 1,225, Hero calls 1,225

Turn: (4,025) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets 2,500, Hero ?

My first question would be, Why didn't you raise preflop?
KT suited is a strong starting hand 5 handed and deserves a raise preflop.

As for the flop, you should have bet just to see where you were in the hand, but the call was the right one as you were getting over 3-1 pot odds to make the call.

As for the turn, the Jack is a good card for you.
Good for the fact that it has given you 3 additional outs provided villian is not holding J9.
We already know by villians betting that he actually may have a 9 but we cannot fold just because we know he has a 9 until we figure where we are when we calculate the odds.

According to my calculations, our pot odds are a little over 2.6-1 and our odds to catch one of our possible outs are 3.8-1, so IMO, I would make this call with my eyes closed.

If my numbers and/or analysis is wrong, anyone can feel free to correct me

Another thing, even if you call and miss, at least your still in the tourney with 13BB which IMO is still enough to make a comeback with, but if you push and get called and lose, your out.

When met with hard decisions, I find it best to use the math to help me make my decisions.

 

[Suited Frenzy]

TBH, I don't know why I didn't raise PF. Brain fart I guess

I agree w/ your reasoning to call because of odds but the way I see it is this: If I'm going to risk 1/4 of my stack this late in a tourney on a draw, then I might as well risk my entire stack by shoving in this spot. Fold equity is good, no?

 

[trewtrew]

i would be shoving on the flop here as not only do u have the flush draw and 2 overs, but the BB could easily just be trying to take the pot from u anfter u limp in then check the flop. Now on the turn, i understand ur concern about the paired board, but realistically the odds he is full already are so slim. He needs 88, 98, J9 or even 99 for u to be drawing dead. so if he had 88 - he raises pre flop, if he has 98 - he checks the flop behind hoping u take a stab on the turn, J9 - is a possibility but again probably checking the flop and 99 gets raised pre flop. Another way u could have played the hand is to call the flop then lead out on the turn for a smallish bet such as 1250 so if he was stealing on the flop, he folds and u win the pot and if he calls u get to draw at ur had for a good price and if u miss, it gives u control of the pot to bluff the river if u choose to.

 

[shinedown.45]

Fold equity is good, no?

Sure your fold equity is good provided you have good knowledge that villian may fold based on reads.
I am making my analysis based on the fact that villian may be an unknown.
IMO, fold equity goes down if you don't have a read on opponent.

You say if you call and miss you have lost 1/4 of your stack for nothing so you think your only move is to push or fold?, but have you taken into account what percentage of his stack he has already invested into the pot?, which calculates to almost 31% and if you just call this turn bet you only have invested 35% of your stack to the pot in total which far from commits you to the pot.

But, again I'll say this, if you have a good read on villian then by all means push all-in, otherwise just call.

Disclaimer: I'm a nit

 

[KoRnholio]

I'd shove here. Our implied odds on a call really aren't that good here. We are out of position, and when we wake up with a bet on a 3 spade or 4 to a straight board, our opponent won't likely call a big bet unless he can't fold trips that haven't boated up.

 

[ImolAyrton]

4025 + 2500 = 6525

you have to call 2500 to win 6525 thats 3/1..


All in

 

[EvilEmperor]

You should be raising hands like KTs pf BvB at this stage of tourney.
You should be leading out or raising flop with FD, backdoor straight draw and overcards.

As played I'd fold turn as villain more than likely has a 9 and won't be folding. That combined with shortstack that will probably be out soon makes it pretty easy fold. Without the shortstack I'd consider shoving turn but with him still there shoving is more marginal from $EV standpoint.

 

[jaded848]

My first question would be, Why didn't you raise preflop?
KT suited is a strong starting hand 5 handed and deserves a raise preflop.

As for the flop, you should have bet just to see where you were in the hand, but the call was the right one as you were getting over 3-1 pot odds to make the call.

As for the turn, the Jack is a good card for you.
Good for the fact that it has given you 3 additional outs provided villian is not holding J9.
We already know by villians betting that he actually may have a 9 but we cannot fold just because we know he has a 9 until we figure where we are when we calculate the odds.

According to my calculations, our pot odds are a little over 2.6-1 and our odds to catch one of our possible outs are 3.8-1, so IMO, I would make this call with my eyes closed.

If my numbers and/or analysis is wrong, anyone can feel free to correct me

Another thing, even if you call and miss, at least your still in the tourney with 13BB which IMO is still enough to make a comeback with, but if you push and get called and lose, your out.

When met with hard decisions, I find it best to use the math to help me make my decisions.

Sorry to revive this thread but I'm confused about something. Why does the jack only give 3 additional outs and not 5? (3 non-spade 7's plus 3 non-spade queens minus the spade jack, assuming villain has a 9)