$2.5 NLHE MTT Turbo: BB holding A9s vs nit EP jam..calling?

[xxMorpheusxx]

Holdem Resources says this is a -1.11 Diff% mistake.

Villian is 8/7/0.0(Postflop Agg)/2.7(3bet) over 122 hands.

https://www.weaktight.com/h/55abd78f549aa2d1518b45a1

I just got Pokerstove so I'm playing with it a bit. If I assume he is jamming 77+ I need 39.164% equity. HM2 says pot odds are 1.61:1 or 38%.

So that means I have 38% equity and I need 39% to call with A9s right? So if the HM2 number is smaller than the Pokerstove number it's a fold?

 

[WiZZiM]

snap fold vs a nit here, i'd be folding AJ here and also hands like 88 and 99. It's just not a spot we can really do anything but try to exploit this guy for playing way too tight, and then pick on him later on by raising his blinds as much as possible.

Those figures above all ignore a few things...

1. The amount of times he shows up with the top of his range AA, KK, QQ, JJ AK AQ compared to the bottom of his range TT-77 it's more likely here since he's a complete nit and he's in EP that he shows up with top of his range more, obviously more KK QQ JJ type hands than the AA AK AQ type hands since we have a blocker, but the logic still applies.

2. We need to have his range exactly correct, now if he's tighter than the range above, then we just made an even bigger mistake, but if he's looser then we're still only close to breakeven profitable call.

3. The figures are ran over tens of thousands of hands, to get an average of how often we win with our exact hand vs his exact range. So if we get a ballpark figure of making 0.5% of the prizepool we have to work out how much that is actually worth to us, when we have other options like not putting our stack at risk, because while on average we make 0.5% of the prizepool( this is just a figure, not representing how much we might make on a call here in this exact spot, which is likely to be a losing play) The opposite side of winning the pot is losing the pot, which is either a huge chunk of our stack missing, or we are knocked out of the tournament. So point is, use common sense also when looking at long term math situations, see what happens when you give him a really wide range, and also a tight range, and then use your own common sense to work out the best play here (or in any spot really).

If this doesnt make sense let me know and i'll try to explain it in a differant way.

 

[xxMorpheusxx]

I did fold but people on Skype said it would be a call.

Also I learned how to change the HuD based on stack sizes. He's 12/10 at his stack size. I think the way it worked out with his new range makes it a call.

Do you agree?

 

[WiZZiM]

ya it might make him wider, but if you look closely at the actual stat size you have on him, you will find you might have like 20 hands on that stat, so it's not important to look at. Nits don't really change much, they will loosen very, very gradually as their stack shallows. So instead at looking at in depth stats telling you he loosens from 8 to 12 vpip, just use your own thoughts to adjust what you think he might do in this spot. For me, he's in EP, and he's a nit, therefore he's playing a very tight range, so really what we're thinking here to make this easy for ourselves in game is, "does he jam A5 A4 A3 here? if not, fold as there is not enough hands that we dominated compared to the hands that dominate us, the other hands are usually pairs, and maybe some stuff like KJs or whatever if we're lucky and he does jam that wide.

So no, i don't think it makes it close to a call at all, but everyone will have their own bias here, i just think these spots are ones we make very little money on long term, so i really don't care if i'm sacrificing value by folding here when i know in future hands i can raise from the button or CO and take his blinds without a showdown at all....

Again just my opinion, feel free to do what you like here..

 

[WiZZiM]

Now if you know this guy is a big winner, and he's a very good tight/aggro then it's likely his stats are just skewed for whatever reason, and he's likely around the 12% vpip here, but look closely at what a 12vpip range is, and you will find that our A9s doesn't run that well vs that range anyways. So then also look at the widest possible range you put the player on, which might be say 15-18% and see how the A9s runs vs that, if it runs badly which i assume it will, then we know for a fact it's not a great call. But that you can do for yourself, don't need anyone else telling you how to do it .

 

[WiZZiM]

and i've totally misread the stack sizes, thought he was a 10bb stack size here, being only 5bb we have much better pot odds. Which makes it much closer to a call, sorry. The above still makes sense, but obviously with him being much shorter his range will be a decent amount wider than the 8-12% in general, So nits will likely jam Ax here, which means our A9s is very likley to be a good call. Sorry for some reason i read it as a 10 bb stack size from UTG, which is very unlikely to be all the Ax type hands.

vs a 18% range with all the Ax in play and all pairs/broadways we're like 52%, which is a clear call in anyones book.

Sorry for the lack of effort reading your initial post, the above info is solid for a 10-15BB stack size shove, and the logic is still the same for this spot, but with him obviously on a much wider range and with us having much better pot odds, it's very likely to be a clear call here.

 

[xxMorpheusxx]

Okay makes sense, thanks for the help.