So given our
pot odds we need about 40.4% equity to be +cEV. At this point in the SNG (looks like we're dealing with 6-max here) our ICM tax is about 1.16 (to figure this out, you look at how much equity you gain vs how much you are losing), so we're looking at approximately 47% equity needed. So what's his range? A bunch of made flushes are possible, but probably just as many flush draws, plus sets, and some overpairs if he's weird/bad. So if you go to pokerstove:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.707% 49.08% 00.62% 64627 822.50 { AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KK-QQ, JcJh, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTh, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9h9s, 55, 33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, Ks9s, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AcJs, AdJs, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AcTs, AdTs, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, Ac9s, Ad9s, Ah9s, As9c, As9d, As9h, Ac8s, Ad8s, Ah8s, As8c, As8d, As8h, Ac7s, Ad7s, Ah7s, As7c, As7d, As7h, Ac6s, Ad6s, Ah6s, As6c, As6d, As6h, Ac5s, Ad5s, Ah5s, As5c, As5d, As5h, Ac4s, Ad4s, Ah4s, As4c, As4d, As4h, Ac3s, Ad3s, Ah3s, As3c, As3d, As3h, Ac2s, Ad2s, Ah2s, As2c, As2d, As2h, KcQs, KdQs, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KcJs, KdJs, KhJs, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh, KcTs, KdTs, KhTs, KsTc, KsTd, KsTh, QcJs, QdJs, QhJs, QsJc, QsJd, QsJh, QcTs, QdTs, QhTs, QsTc, QsTd, QsTh, JcTs, JdTs, JhTs, JsTc, JsTd, JsTh, Tc9s, Td9s, Th9s, Ts9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, 9c8s, 9d8s, 9h8s, 9s8c, 9s8d, 9s8h, 8c7s, 8d7s, 8h7s, 8s7c, 8s7d, 8s7h }
Hand 1: 50.293% 49.67% 00.62% 65398 822.50 { AdAh }
And I didn't manipulate that at all to confirm my answer, that's the first range I put in and the answer I got. So yes we're flipping essentially, but given what's in the pot it's going to be worth our while.
Another way to look at it (more maths, yay!) - if we win here, our equity is ~30-31%. If we lose, we're basically out, so we'll say 0% for that. Our equity when we fold is ~13.5%. So if our percent to win the hand times our equity when we win is greater than our equity when we fold, then it's +EV.
.503*(30%) = 15.09%
So that's obviously greater than what we have when we fold, meaning we should make this call, and we only need 45% equity for this to be break-even $EV (and this is using the more conservative 30% for our tournament equity).
A
Q
