$2.25 NLHE STT: Monster Draw? vs. Villan shove...early stage call?

[realtalk108]

$2.25 NLHESTT: Monster Draw? vs. Villan shove...early stage call?

Ok so I am working my way thru $2.00 + .25 Sit n Go's on FTP. Dont really have a read on the villan, and since im posting from my job I dont have my PT3 stats to post. If i remember correctly I believe he was pretty loose, playing a large number of pots, mostly limping. Here is the hand:

Stacks:
BB with 2625
UTG with 3675
HERO with 1455
MP2 with 1395
CO with 1455
BTN with 660
SB with 2235

Blinds:
Site: Full Tilt Poker
Dealt to HERO:Q♥ K♥
Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
UTG calls [30]
Hero raises to 200
5 players fold.
UTG calls [170]
Total folds this street: 5
Potsize: 445
Flop:
8♥ 9♠ 10♥
UTG bets [445]
Hero calls [445]
Potsize: 1335
Turn:
6♦
UTG bets [1,335]
HERO ?????


My thinking was:
Being that it was so early in the tournament, I wasn't sure whether to play it or fold. Surely he could have held J-10, but I would still have hearts as outs. I didn't put him on a nut flush draw, thinking why would he bet all-in on a board that could have easily had the straight. Figured he probably hit high pair with a good kicker and wanted to pray that no one had the straight.

Also, can someone comment on whether the hand is converted correctly? this is my first post in the hand analysis section.

THANKS

 

[Jillychemung]

I would have shipped it on the flop.

Since you have committed almost 1/2 your stack I think that calling the AI here would be OK. You are a 70-30 dog to most of the range that UTG would limp/call preflop and then bet into you on this wet of a flop. I would have to do a bit of equity calculations comparing your likely profit if you call versus folding versus busting.

 

[baudib1]

go all-in on the flop

 

[cjatud2012]

I'd shove the flop, that's way more +$EV than calling because of your fold equity (even if it's small, which it might be in this spot, it's more than 0, plus you have TONS of outs, so play it aggressively). On the turn I think we can call all-in, it's a pot-odds decision and without any further analysis based on your win odds it's probably enough to get it in.

 

[Rldetheflop]

the sticky spot on the turn is exactly why we need to be shoving the flop here.

oh yea why are we raising so much pf in fact this early in the tourney I probably even dump this from utg+1 over a limper.

 

[WiZZiM]

shove flop, as mentioned real mistake was made preflop, this hand is at best a limp behind implied odds type hand.. and if your going to raise, your raise size is pretty huge preflop.

 

[realtalk108]

thanks for the input everyone. so this early in the tournament i should just fold this? I figured it was a pretty good starting hand, although if it was KQo i def would not have played it.

i've read moshman's book and HoH, im actually rereading them both. I know this hand doesnt fall into the group of hands I should play from EP, not sure why i played it to be honest. Figured i didn't have to be exactly by the book, but look where that got me -__-

as for the preflop raise, the table was calling lower bets and i didnt want that many callers so i raised the bet amount. im still new to this so that was my thought process at the time...

 

[cjatud2012]

shove flop, as mentioned real mistake was made preflop, this hand is at best a limp behind implied odds type hand.. and if your going to raise, your raise size is pretty huge preflop.

oh yeah, I forgot this, definitely agree with this.

 

[Rldetheflop]

thanks for the input everyone. so this early in the tournament i should just fold this? I figured it was a pretty good starting hand, although if it was KQo i def would not have played it.

i've read moshman's book and HoH, im actually rereading them both. I know this hand doesnt fall into the group of hands I should play from EP, not sure why i played it to be honest. Figured i didn't have to be exactly by the book, but look where that got me -__-

as for the preflop raise, the table was calling lower bets and i didnt want that many callers so i raised the bet amount. im still new to this so that was my thought process at the time...

well as Wizz mentions calling behind here is not horrible. I personally dont like that option because there are too many players left to act(most of them will have position post-flop) and may have to fold to a raise behind.