cjatud2012
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
All I will say about AK:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.135% 32.55% 10.58% 280924944 91334412.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.865% 46.28% 10.58% 399407448 91334412.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.509% 31.27% 00.24% 179927136 1353756.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 68.491% 68.26% 00.24% 392699496 1353756.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
"drawing hand" > "made hand"
AF, the problem isn't that you're stating your opinion. It's that you state it, don't really support it (i.e. you call it a drawing hand and /thread), and you don't really listen when others propose real facts...
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.135% 32.55% 10.58% 280924944 91334412.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 56.865% 46.28% 10.58% 399407448 91334412.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.509% 31.27% 00.24% 179927136 1353756.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 68.491% 68.26% 00.24% 392699496 1353756.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }
"drawing hand" > "made hand"
AF, the problem isn't that you're stating your opinion. It's that you state it, don't really support it (i.e. you call it a drawing hand and /thread), and you don't really listen when others propose real facts...
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
How does putting 55 against that range support your argument?
You're making no sense.
dg1267
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Dang, I was really hoping that this thread could last without getting into the "made hand/drawing hand" argument.
But, since we're here...
I can turn that right back around and say "Once we fold, there is no range we can beat anymore". It's not a matter of this specific hand. I don't care how many chips or $ I lost on this specific hand. I do care how much money I win/lose over the next 1000 times I play this specific hand in this sort of spot. That is where the drawing hand argument gets knocked out of the water. It's over. There is a reason why every time you put that opinion out there 15 people jump out calling "BS".
But, since we're here...
I can turn that right back around and say "Once we fold, there is no range we can beat anymore". It's not a matter of this specific hand. I don't care how many chips or $ I lost on this specific hand. I do care how much money I win/lose over the next 1000 times I play this specific hand in this sort of spot. That is where the drawing hand argument gets knocked out of the water. It's over. There is a reason why every time you put that opinion out there 15 people jump out calling "BS".
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
Dang, I was really hoping that this thread could last without getting into the "made hand/drawing hand" argument.
But, since we're here...
I can turn that right back around and say "Once we fold, there is no range we can beat anymore". It's not a matter of this specific hand. I don't care how many chips or $ I lost on this specific hand. I do care how much money I win/lose over the next 1000 times I play this specific hand in this sort of spot. That is where the drawing hand argument gets knocked out of the water. It's over. There is a reason why every time you put that opinion out there 15 people jump out calling "BS".
15 people calling BS?
What's that even mean?
My whole thing is - why risk the chips now?
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cjatud2012
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
My point is that the "drawing hand" has a lot more equity than the "made hand", and it will be true for pretty much every range you put the two hands against.
So which would you rather have?
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
I'll take the pair.
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
And you are now and you always have been.
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
You have a way of making things personal.
I really don't care what you think of me or my poker abilities.
If you think calling or raising the 3-bet is the right play then good for you.
cjatud2012
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Hillbilly actually said he was fine with a fold here, since we perceive villain to have a pretty tight range. Rather, he, much like myself, doesn't understand why you would chose a hand like 55 over AK when the math suggests that in the long run AK will win more often against any range. That's the larger issue here (even though we've completely derailed the thread now).
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
Honestly the problem is that you have 1600 posts here and someone who doesn't know any better might just think you're right. So every time you post something stupid I have to be there to set anyone who reads your posts straight. I'd much rather you learn the material so I could rely on you to get it right the 1st time but you seem to be much too set in your ways to ever actually learn anything.
Have fun being exactly as good or bad as you are forever.
Have fun being exactly as good or bad as you are forever.
OzExorcist
Broomcorn's uncle
Bronze Level
It means 15 people think you're wrong and are voicing that opinion in the strongest possible terms. BS is an acronym.
As for your other question, why risk the chips now, maybe you missed the point above where most of us are saying that AK is a fold in this particular spot because it doesn't stack up well against the villain's range.
In pure chipEV terms shoving may not be a huge mistake, however, given the amount of money already in the pot and as CJ's figures demonstrate if we were to shove this we should take AK over 55 every day of the week and twice on Sundays. $EV may dictate that we fold both but the point still stands - AK will win more often.
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
Poker Orifice
FoolsTilt
Platinum Level
Maybe there's a reason that they're jumping all over you for your opinions on AK? (perhaps they're actually trying to help you out?).
Player read dependant... $2 sng.. usually just shipping the AK in this spot.
Depending upon day of the week & time of day there might be one or two micro regs. on the table (often see players from Russia with 2-3,000 sngs all played at micro stakes before they move up who are playing solidly).
It is a bit of a tough spot though.
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
You're right, I'm not being very receptive and I should try harder to learn.
Sorry.
cjatud2012
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
A more in depth analysis:
equity if we fold: $2.49
equity if we shove and win: $4.19
equity if we shove and fold: $0.97
In the below equation, we set our equity if we fold equal to the equity of winning, multiplied by the chance of winning "x", plus the equity of losing times to chance of losing.
2.49 = x*4.19 + (1-x)*0.97
1.52 = 3.22x
x = 0.472 -> 47.2%
So if you put AK against a range, it has to have AQ in it for this to be a profitable shove. Going up against a perceived tight player who is 3-betting an UTG raise, this may not be true (if we're being results oriented it is, but in-game obv we won't know that).
However, this does not change that AK has more equity against a range than "made hands" such as small pocket pairs, and that's all I want anyone (ahem, AF) to really understand. I've been trying to search for an old thread, I think AG posted it, where he talks about this and why that makes AK so powerful, especially when you include fold equity, but have been unable to find it...
equity if we fold: $2.49
equity if we shove and win: $4.19
equity if we shove and fold: $0.97
In the below equation, we set our equity if we fold equal to the equity of winning, multiplied by the chance of winning "x", plus the equity of losing times to chance of losing.
2.49 = x*4.19 + (1-x)*0.97
1.52 = 3.22x
x = 0.472 -> 47.2%
So if you put AK against a range, it has to have AQ in it for this to be a profitable shove. Going up against a perceived tight player who is 3-betting an UTG raise, this may not be true (if we're being results oriented it is, but in-game obv we won't know that).
However, this does not change that AK has more equity against a range than "made hands" such as small pocket pairs, and that's all I want anyone (ahem, AF
) to really understand. I've been trying to search for an old thread, I think AG posted it, where he talks about this and why that makes AK so powerful, especially when you include fold equity, but have been unable to find it...
atlantafalcons0
Legend
Silver Level
A more in depth analysis:
equity if we fold: $2.49
equity if we shove and win: $4.19
equity if we shove and fold: $0.97
In the below equation, we set our equity if we fold equal to the equity of winning, multiplied by the chance of winning "x", plus the equity of losing times to chance of losing.
2.49 = x*4.19 + (1-x)*0.97
1.52 = 3.22x
x = 0.472 -> 47.2%
So if you put AK against a range, it has to have AQ in it for this to be a profitable shove. Going up against a perceived tight player who is 3-betting an UTG raise, this may not be true (if we're being results oriented it is, but in-game obv we won't know that).
However, this does not change that AK has more equity against a range than "made hands" such as small pocket pairs, and that's all I want anyone (ahem, AF
This I understand.
Thanks for great information.
I agree than AK has more equity against a range than "made hands" such as small pocket pairs.
But just how small are "small pocket pairs"?
22-77???
cjatud2012
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Silver Level
Well that depends. Against a range of 99+, ATs+, and AQo+, 88 has only 2% more equity than 22. Perhaps more interestingly, against QQ+ and AKs, JJ is again only 2% better than 22. So it sort of depends on the villains range. Generally speaking, I wouldn't disagree with 22-77 being "smaller pairs", but it can include 88-99, and even in some cases TT-JJ. AA and KK I'm obv always getting in against any opponent, QQ I'm getting in 90% of the time.
WVHillbilly
Legend
Silver Level
Depends on the range we're going up against.
Let's take a tight range of AJs+/AQo+/77+ (6.3% range). Against that range AK has more equity than 22-99. If we have AKs we have more equity than TT as well.
cardplayer52
Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
It is true once we call then we need to beat a certain hand. But this isn't about that. This is whether we should make the call in the first place. And one major piece of info influencing our decision should be what out equity is vs. the villian percieved range vs. what equity we need to make calling profitable. If we think were making a profit by calling we should. Yes sometimes we will be behind but hopefully we had the villians range correct that's the important thing. As for most of the time AK gets killed if that were true then we should most likely fold. In this hand we would need to put lots of weaker hands in the villian range in order to justify a call. Hands like AQ,AJ + KQ would need to be in the villians 3betting an UTG raise range here to justify a call which I highly doubt here so EZ fold imo.