$2.25 NLHE STT: 5-handed, hero in BB looking at 2 all-ins

[cjatud2012]

I'm pretty sure I made the right play, but wanted to clarify with others. Will ask more questions after I get some responses.

Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|120/240 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: 2,210.00
SB: 5,185.00
Hero (BB): 1,430.00
UTG: 1,060.00
CO: 3,615.00

SB posts SB 120.00, Hero posts BB 240.00

Pre Flop: (360.00) Hero has Q:club: A:spade:

UTG raises to 1,060.00 and is all-in, fold, BTN raises to 2,210.00 and is all-in, fold, Hero ????

 

[cjatud2012]

I'll add that both players are randoms, 32/5 and 20/10 over like 40 hands, nothing too significant.

 

[Rldetheflop]

yuck!! Looks like a clear fold but I dont like it. Folding leaves us in pretty bad shape no matter the outcome of the hand so that part sucks. Gotta assume button has something here as he is shoving with the big stack left to act. Could get a nice equity boost 3 handed with like AQvs88vsA5 so tough spot I guess.

 

[Jillychemung]

I'll add that both players are randoms, 32/5 and 20/10 over like 40 hands, nothing too significant.

Which one shoved first?

 

[cjatud2012]

32/5 was the initial shover.

 

[Jillychemung]

OK did the 32/5 get his smaller stack with a showdown loss or by just call/fold prior to showdown?

 

[cjatud2012]

he had built up his stack then lost most of it on the previous hand:

Full Tilt - $2+$0.25|120/240 NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: 2,450.00
BB: 3,265.00
Hero (UTG): 1,430.00
CO: 2,740.00
BTN: 3,615.00

SB posts SB 120.00, BB posts BB 240.00

Pre Flop: (360.00) Hero has Q:heart: 4:heart:

fold, CO calls 240.00, fold, SB calls 120.00, BB checks

Flop: (720.00, 3 players) 8:spade: 9:spade: T:diamond:
SB checks, BB bets 480.00, CO calls 480.00, fold

Turn: (1680.00, 2 players) 7:club:
BB checks, CO checks

River: (1680.00, 2 players) 7:heart:
BB bets 960.00, CO calls 960.00

BB shows T:spade: 6:club: (Straight, Ten High) (PreFlop 28%, Flop 30%, Turn 88%)
CO mucks Q:diamond: T:club: (Two Pair, Tens and Sevens) (PreFlop 72%, Flop 70%, Turn 13%)
BB wins 3,600.00

 

[Jillychemung]

With this info, I'd call here. Both players ranges include enough hands, broadways, Ace-rag, connectors, that we beat to give us even odds of wining. The blinds are high, we'll have about 2 orbits to hit a hand if we fold and even then if we double up we'd still be a small stack fighting for 3rd. Win here and we could have a good chance at 1st.

 

[WiZZiM]

UTG is probably shoving really wide. and the other dude is probably shoving stuff that we dominate a lot of the time. So, combine that with our bad position in the game, the fact that this is the time to take risks, and the pot odds we're getting i probably lean toward calling.

Ran this through ICM explorer

Fold: 1190 chips, 0.2456, SD: $7.93
Win: 5350 chips, 0.3396
Lose: 0 chips, 0.2
Tie: 2675 chips, 0.2681

Equity needed: 32.68%
Chip odds: 22.24%
Risk premium: 10.44%
Chips gained by marginal call: 558.3.
Ties count as 48.76% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $9.6.

So we need around 33% equity here to call, and i'm pretty sure we have that here.

Edit: Oh and if the bigger stack wins here we have locked in 3rd prize, which isn't a bad result, and we get to own the bubble if we win vs both. Not to mention getting to the bubble as a shortstack, well, really sucks.

Factor in that as well and this is an easy call for me.

 

[Jillychemung]

Edit: Oh and if the bigger stack wins here we have locked in 3rd prize

???? Hero would be 4th out of 4 if he folds and the big stack wins.

 

[WiZZiM]

OOps, yeah your right this might be a lot closer then

Yep, i screwed it up.

Fold: 1190 chips, 0.1164, SD: $14.65
Win: 4040 chips, 0.3013
Lose: 0 chips, 0
Tie: 2020 chips, 0.1792

Equity needed: 38.63%
Chip odds: 29.46%
Risk premium: 9.18%
Chips gained by marginal call: 370.8.
Ties count as 59.48% of a win.
SD of marginal call: $15.75.

So we need a lot more equity to call here, it's actually a lot closer than above. you can just delete that crap above.
With the ranges i put in pokerstove, we had around 37% equity in this spot. So it's really much closer than i figured above. However, we still need to take a risk in this spot i think. But it could go either way.

 

[cjatud2012]

Thanks for the good analysis guys. WiZZ, is that pzhon's ICM Explorer?

Anyway, I thought it might be close, but I figured that if folded, I'm probably just gonna bubble anyway. But then if I called I actually had a chance to get better than 3rd or 4th. That sort of swayed me towards calling.

 

[WiZZiM]

Yeah i think so, he used to work for cardrunners i believe. It's a good little tool though, but of a pain to use.