$2.20 NLHE MTT: SCOOP 11-L

[mariussica88]

Do you guys call here?

BB stats after 24 hands: VPIP 24 PFR 4 C-bet 100

pokerstars - 400/800 Ante 100 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players


Hero (MP+1): 46,145 (57.7 bb)
CO: 34,326 (42.9 bb)
BTN: 20,301 (25.4 bb)
SB: 80,826 (101 bb)
BB: 27,683 (34.6 bb)
UTG: 23,675 (29.6 bb)
UTG+1: 30,378 (38 bb)
MP: 45,020 (56.3 bb)

8 players post ante of 100, SB posts 400, BB posts 800

Pre Flop: (pot: 2,000) Hero has
UTG raises to 1,600, 2 folds, Hero calls 1,600, 2 folds, SB calls 1,200, BB raises to 6,800, fold, Hero folds, fold

Results: 7,200 pot (0 rake)

BB wins 7,200

 

[fundiver199]

I think, its fine to fold here, especially with those HUD stats. Yes its a small sample, but BB has a huge gap between VPIP and PFR, so he is definitely someone, who is not afraid to let other players see a flop. Yet in this hand facing an UTG open and two callers he selected to bump it up, even though he could have gotten like 8:1 on a call.

We really need to ask ourselfes, what kind of range he might be doing this with. Its realistically going to be AK or a big pair, and even having position and getting good pot odds, going to war against such a range with AQ is usually not going to end well for us. If we call, the SPR is only going to be a bit over 1, so when we miss, we basically have no play left other than to fold. And even when we hit, we are not always winning. Flop comes Q73, and we stack off against his AA or KK. Flop comes A73, and we stack off against his AK.

 

[300HPGOD]

Very much agree with Fundiver above. As played this is a fold spot due to what we know about the raiser not only that they do not raise much but also is a 100% c bettor (I know that must be a very small sample but still relevant).

What I will add though is what the UTG was running and should we be 3 betting here. I believe we should be based on UTG's stack size. With them at 30 BBs we know whether they will be going with their hand or not fairly early in the hand and they should not float as much as they would if they had 50 BBs +. I understand this is a small buy in tournament so maybe all that doesnt apply but I think we should be thinking that way until we are proved otherwise. I would be 3 betting this hand trying to isolate UTG (again their stats might make me say this is a bad idea but they are not included) and then on any flop would be betting 40% pot or so to see if they come along. If they call then I would believe their chances of randomly floating are limited and we can assume were beat or at least up against something but 3 betting them pre and c betting flop puts them in a spot where they only have 30 BBs and have to begin to think about their tournament survival.