$2.2 NLHE MTT Turbo: AQo on UTG - were's mistake?

1sunchin

1sunchin

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Blinds 5k/10k, last 20 players.

Hero UTG AQo, stack 400k, minraise 2BB, BB call.

Flop A,8,2 rainbow.

Hero contbet 4BB, BB all-in 300k, hero call.

Turn K, river 6.

Were's mistake?
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
With a 40BB stack you can raise a little more than just a min-raise. Up to 2,5BB is fine and gives BB is slightly worse price to defend.

Flop
It seems like, the pot must have been around 55k including the ante, and then a 40k C-bet is very large especially on a dry board like this. Something like 20-25k puts far more hands in a tough spot and makes bluffing cheaper. He then check-jam, and this is not a super fun spot, especially because the board is so dry, so there are not really any draws, he can be doing this with. But even so I would call here and hope to get shown an overplayed AJ/AT type hand or some wild bluff from time to time. I cant give him credit for only having flopped sets or two pair, or for not 3-betting pre with AK.

Results
Apparently you lost the hand, since you ask, where the mistake was. But losing a hand does not mean, we made any mistakes. In this hand the line was fine, but betsizing could be more optimal both preflop and on the flop. And maybe the preflop sizing did actually matter for the outcome. If you raise slightly bigger, its less likely, that hands like A2 or A8 gets defended, and you can feel even more confident about AQ on a flop like this.
 
1sunchin

1sunchin

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Preflop
With a 40BB stack you can raise a little more than just a min-raise. Up to 2,5BB is fine and gives BB is slightly worse price to defend.

Flop
It seems like, the pot must have been around 55k including the ante, and then a 40k C-bet is very large especially on a dry board like this. Something like 20-25k puts far more hands in a tough spot and makes bluffing cheaper. He then check-jam, and this is not a super fun spot, especially because the board is so dry, so there are not really any draws, he can be doing this with. But even so I would call here and hope to get shown an overplayed AJ/AT type hand or some wild bluff from time to time. I cant give him credit for only having flopped sets or two pair, or for not 3-betting pre with AK.

Results
Apparently you lost the hand, since you ask, where the mistake was. But losing a hand does not mean, we made any mistakes. In this hand the line was fine, but betsizing could be more optimal both preflop and on the flop. And maybe the preflop sizing did actually matter for the outcome. If you raise slightly bigger, its less likely, that hands like A2 or A8 gets defended, and you can feel even more confident about AQ on a flop like this.
Forgot to wrote: BB had A8o.
 
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300HPGOD

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I agree with fundiver about pre flop and the sizing. 2 BBs is fine but I think 2.2-2.5BBs is better here. I doubt it makes any difference in this hand but it will make a difference against opponents who will defend from the BB or just call from late position and then fold a lot of flops.

I also agree that your bet sizing on the flop seems large especially on board like this. When villain jams I am hating this in game. The board is nothing burger and there would be no need to "protect" an A10 or A9 type hand if that is what villain had. In game I know its tight but I would be seriously considering folding here but it really would come down to what I know about villain. If I think they are a little crazy at all I would be calling this. However, if I was at their table for a long time and never saw them step out of line I would be highly considering folding, not sure if I would do it or not. ICM would come into play too as to what place my 400k is right now, pay jumps, how I feel against the field etc. I think this is a spot where it probably isnt a bad call or a bad fold as long as you had the reasoning to back up whichever one you were to choose. 22, 88, A8 and A2 are all in a defend against min raise range. I wouldnt think a villain would do this with a set but also wouldnt think they would do with two pair either since its not necessary except for maybe 82 since they could then deduce there is a decent chance you have an ace and arent folding. Don't think 82 would defend here though.
 
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LetterRip

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Blinds 5k/10k, last 20 players.

Hero UTG AQo, stack 400k, minraise 2BB, BB call.

Flop A,8,2 rainbow.

Hero contbet 4BB, BB all-in 300k, hero call.

Turn K, river 6.

Were's mistake?


So villain is 320k, so we are 32BB deep.


Preflop minr UTG gives us effective SPR of 300k/55k (with 20 players left also 10k of antes?) so 5.5 without antes or 4.5 with antes.

Auto stack off ranges for TPTK are,

  • 0-3 SPR: Stack-off with top pair +
  • ~5 SPR: Stack-off with two pair +
  • ~10 SPR: Stack-off with three-of-a-kind+
  • 17+ SPR: Stack-off with strong straights/flushes+
https://www.888poker.com/magazine/strategy/spr-in-poker

So just given the SPR we are close to an auto stackoff.

Next, we consider what villain could flat vs UTG with in the BB, then overbet jam the flop with.

Sets - one combo of AA, and it probably reraised pre, 3 of 88 and 3 of 22. 30BB deep some people will still set mine vs UTG especially for a minr in the BB with such a good price. Most sets are going to try and get at least a turn bet out of you, so these are unlikely to jam.

PP 99-KK - many of these would have reraised pre. They might jam hopping you call with a worse pair or to fold out OCs,

Any Ax could definitely do this hoping to look like a 'Stop Get Set N Go' (stop n Go that waits for a cbet then jams) and get called by any PP 99-KK. and the AK hoping you call with AQ, AJ. As well as the A8 and A2 combos. However SGSNG is uncommon against a tight range, usually only vs LP raises with far wider ranges. So unless you are extremely loose EP (lots of SCs, and not just Axs) this is unlikely.


This also might be a 8x (98s, and 87s are definitely hands people defend the BB with) hoping you call with overcards or fold out your overcard equity.

Small PP could also be hoping to fold out over PPs by repping the A.

This lastly could just be a SGSNG w suited broadway hands that have BDFD, BDSD, and possible overcards if a lower PP calls. Again though vs UTG this is less likely unless they are a bluff monkey or your UTG range is lots of SCs.

So there are 7 sets and 8 combos of AK that beat you and the 6 combos of A8, and 6 of A2; there are quite a few weaker Ax and pocket pairs though as well, so unless you have a specific read on villain I think calling is probably ahead of reasonable check/jamming range on this flop if villain is someone who bluffs a reasonable amount and who might value jam to induce a call with weaker PPs - of course if they don't bluff and only value jam the strongest hands, then you are not in very good shape.


I think I'd go with a larger sizing preflop 2.2-2.5x gives you a nicer stack off SPR for TP2K if you decide that is what you plan to regularly do in this situation and as suggested above it reduces the range of hands that villain defends with. I'd also go with a small cbet sizing on a dry board - 30-40% of pot given how dry it is. (typical sizings are 30-40% for dry flops, 60-80% for wettish flops).

Note also that this is close to the top of your range on this board, so if you are folding here - it means you only call a check jam with sets when you open UTG and hit a dry board?
 
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LetterRip

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I actually was changing my mind throughout my analysis - I think my final decision is that it is marginal and so folding or calling are both fine. You aren't knocked out of the tourney if you call but you are crippled, but a near double up now might mean much better odds of winning a top 3 finish. On my nitty days I'd fold, and on my aggro days call for the potential increased chip utility.
 
Bnobob

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Preflop
With a 40BB stack you can raise a little more than just a min-raise. Up to 2,5BB is fine and gives BB is slightly worse price to defend.

Flop
It seems like, the pot must have been around 55k including the ante, and then a 40k C-bet is very large especially on a dry board like this. Something like 20-25k puts far more hands in a tough spot and makes bluffing cheaper. He then check-jam, and this is not a super fun spot, especially because the board is so dry, so there are not really any draws, he can be doing this with. But even so I would call here and hope to get shown an overplayed AJ/AT type hand or some wild bluff from time to time. I cant give him credit for only having flopped sets or two pair, or for not 3-betting pre with AK.

Results
Apparently you lost the hand, since you ask, where the mistake was. But losing a hand does not mean, we made any mistakes. In this hand the line was fine, but betsizing could be more optimal both preflop and on the flop. And maybe the preflop sizing did actually matter for the outcome. If you raise slightly bigger, its less likely, that hands like A2 or A8 gets defended, and you can feel even more confident about AQ on a flop like this.
he won, I didn't understand why the villain went all, he must have A,2,3,4 finally defending a bb maybe
 
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fundiver199

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he won, I didn't understand why the villain went all, he must have A,2,3,4 finally defending a bb maybe


No Hero lost this hand. He has already revealed, that Villain had A8o, so Villain flopped two pair.
 
Bnobob

Bnobob

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the hand reading could be this why the call...
 
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