$$2.00 NL HE STT: AJs top-pair

[LuisBoaC]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

$2.00

VP$IP

56

PFR

11

AF

1

Currency

$

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 56/11/1
10th hand of the tourney and never played this Villain before so HUD stats provided are from 9 hands.
How would you have played and what would you do when Villain leads out on the river?
pokerstars, $1.72 + $0.28 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG (Hero): 1,498 (50 bb)
UTG+1: 1,321 (44 bb)
MP: 1,381 (46 bb)
MP+1: 1,198 (40 bb)
CO: 2,961 (99 bb)
BU: 1,411 (47 bb)
SB: 2,215 (74 bb)
BB: 1,515 (51 bb)

Pre-Flop: (77) Hero is UTG with A♦ J♦
Hero raises to 75, 3 players fold, CO calls 75, 1 fold, SB calls 60, 1 fold

Flop: (287) T♣ 2♦ A♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 150, CO folds, SB calls 150

Turn: (587) Q♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 300, SB calls 300

River: (1,187) 4♥ (2 players)
SB bets 300
Hero ???

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard raise good sizing.

Flop
C-bet for value is fine, but its a pretty dry board and a multiway pot, so betting slightly more than half pot is quite large. Maybe its fine against bad opponents, but just want you to understand, that GTO sizing is a spot like this is quite a bit smaller.

Turn
You got called by SB, and even though its only a small sample, he definitely seem to be a whale (very loose and passive preflop). So I think, he can have basically any AX, and that he is never folding top pair bad kicker. You also picked up a flushdraw, so you are never drawing dead. For those reasons my plan here would be to play for stacks, and this is largely because of the opponent. It this was a good reg in say a $10 SnG, I might actually even check back here for pot control. But here you should go for max value, and for that reason I would bet something like 400. That makes the pot around 1.400 with 900 left behind, which sets up an easy river jam. Betting 300 is not like a big mistake though, and the most important is the idea, that we are planning to jam most rivers.

River
4h only improved like exactly A4, and his sizing and line looks like a blocker bet. Meaning that he is trying to bet a bit less, than what he think, you might have bet if checked to. For those reasons this is definitely not a fold, but the question is, do we just call and see, what he had, or do we jam? I dont think, just calling is a significant mistake. But given everything, I wrote, I kind of prefer a jam. I think, he most likely has some weak AX, and I dont think, he can fold it getting great pot odds.

 

[eetenor]

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 56/11/1
10th hand of the tourney and never played this Villain before so HUD stats provided are from 9 hands.
How would you have played and what would you do when Villain leads out on the river?
PokerStars, $1.72 + $0.28 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG (Hero): 1,498 (50 bb)
UTG+1: 1,321 (44 bb)
MP: 1,381 (46 bb)
MP+1: 1,198 (40 bb)
CO: 2,961 (99 bb)
BU: 1,411 (47 bb)
SB: 2,215 (74 bb)
BB: 1,515 (51 bb)

Pre-Flop: (77) Hero is UTG with A♦ J♦
Hero raises to 75, 3 players fold, CO calls 75, 1 fold, SB calls 60, 1 fold

Flop: (287) T♣ 2♦ A♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 150, CO folds, SB calls 150

Turn: (587) Q♦ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 300, SB calls 300

River: (1,187) 4♥ (2 players)
SB bets 300
Hero ???

Standard multiway bet sizing is 33% on flop vs 2 weaker ranges as the MDF is shared by the 2 V and we are betting only top of range and some bluffs no need to check back AT TT for instance to protect turn ranges.

Turn half pot is fine-

River the decision is will we be called by worse? Our range has all the nuts here so One pair is on the low end of our range

 

[DaMooca]

These hands that the villain usually bets on is that he has some value and he doesn't want to stop extracting if you check, now the problem is what value exactly does he have??
The board is very connected and because I don't have more info on the villain I'll just call there.

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre: 2.5x is good, easy street to analyze lol

Flop: I agree with others we can go smaller here but the sizing in these spots where we have top pair on a dry board should be wide in swath based on what we think about villains. Those of you who have played against me know I can/will check in this spot if I think you are over aggressive against me but generally I would bet here between 110 and 200 based on what im thinking from villains and what I know about their skill level. In this spot I think 150 is just fine but probably more often than not 125 here is better.

Turn: This is a nice card for us on so many fronts. It gives us a flush draw, gutterball, and it is a card that if villain did not have something already then they could have a Qx hand that could pay us now. Slight risk of a Q10 hand but nothing that I would worry about yet. You bet a little bit more than half which is fine. I think in game I would go smaller (and I know that is a mistake against certain villains including probably this one) since I there is nothing left for me to worry about other than a random card binking two pair for villain and playing poker that is always a possibility going to the next street anyway. My sizing would be probably in the 270 range here but I like 300 (good number lol) and agree with Fundiver that betting bigger here against a 56/11 player is more likely than not a wise idea.

River: Bet by villain is overwhelmingly a blocker "lets get to showdown" bet. So I agree with others that folding would be crazy so it comes down to call or fold with the 973 chips we have left. First I would try to deduce villains range which on a 56/11 player is fun but based on this bet I really wouldnt put them on an ace. I would think they are the type of player that plays so many hands that top pair to them is a huge hand and has more value then compared to us 15-20% vpip players and how we would value top pair hands. Therefore, if they thought they were really strong here would they ever blocker bet? I wouldnt think so, they would just bet out a more "normal" sizing or just get it in with us since we are less than 1 SPR now. They wouldnt make it so it would be easy for us to get to showdown if we chose to. So all that makes me think villain has 10x or Qx and is not guaranteed to call an all in. Small chance they have something huge and slowed it but really doubt it. With all that, I know in game I would call thinking they would not call a raise with worse especially if I think they dont have Ax since yes its only 600 chips more but that is 20 BBs. However, I can interpret what I wrote as they are never strong or at least very rarely strong and then we can jam knowing we are ahead and have the best hand. I think this is another spot where each viable option is not bad. I just personally dont like sticking my neck out here if I dont think they will call with worse even though there will definitely be some hands where I just call here and leave value on the table.

 

[fundiver199]

I just personally dont like sticking my neck out here if I dont think they will call with worse even though there will definitely be some hands where I just call here and leave value on the table.

For a river jam to be good, we need to have the best hand more than half the time when called. However if, just for the experiment of thought, they never have a hand, that beat us, then we should still jam, even if they always fold. The reason is, that when they fold, we dont need to show our hand, and we are making their life more tough. They will always have that nagging feeling, that maybe we bluffed them, and this can induce lighter action in later hands.