$1650 NLHE Deep Stacked: River Call or Shove

[Zybomb]

$1650 NL HE Deep Stacked: River Call or Shove

Not my hand but was asked for feedback from a player later after Day 1 ended.

This is from the $1650 Borgata Deep Stack. 30k starting chips

Blinds are in their third level, 100/200 with no antes, both Hero and Villain have close to the original starting stack size of 30k. Apparently there is no unusual read on villain.

Villain opens from 3rd position to 600 folds around to Hero in the BB who looks down and finds QQ. He decides to flat.

Flop comes A Q 7 with no suits

Hero checks and villain overbets 2000 into a 1300. Hero decides just to call

Turn comes T. Im not sure if it brings a FD to the board or completes the rainbow

Hero checks and Villain checks

River is a 7. Hero bets 2700, Villain raises to 10k

Who calls and Who shoves (or raises a non shoving amount)

If you just call what's your thinking behind not shoving (or reraising)

If you shove (or reraise) what hands are you expecting to get called by

Does the very strange play of villain (overbet flop, check behind turn, raise river) influence your decision? How so and how much?

I realize you may not have arrived at the river in the fashion that we did, but since this isn't our hand that's out of our control.

 

[Greyshadows]

Well your right the problem for me is in playing the hand before the flop for one a reraise would have given information about the villains starting hand that would be valuable on the river. Flop play was dodgy too when the villain overbets its in the Hero's best interest with what he percieves to be the nuts to reraise to check just how strong the opponent is, Set of 7 or Aces or is he top pair top kicker AK/AQ besides with KJ making a close ended straight draw id have wanted to make a reraise to detract from giving him a potential free draw. pretty standard check on the turn the Ten is a scare card for the hero opening straight possiblities on the board and if the opponent hit his straight he might have decided to get trappy with it. Now the lack of the above preflop and flop play is what makes this river play so dangerous there are alot of hands your opponent could have that you easilly beat AK/AQ/AJ plus KJ even KQ. However there are two hands that you dont have beat which are AA and 77. Questions is do you really put the villian on that hand Personally i wouldnt if im flopping top set or a set at all on a rainbow flop im definately not overbetting the pot to try and scare them. I perceive him to have a hand like AJ/A10 perhaps suited he tries to overbet and end the hand there checking if his ace is good. Checking the turn indicates some pot control id imagine or if he had A10 setting a trap for the river with what he perceives to be top two pair (hed imagine hero reraising with AQ) then finally the reraise on the river for value. Ofcourse he could easilly have AQ and flopped top two pair but i doubt he would overbet that as well. All in all judging by the limited info i have on the hand i wouldnt put him on 77 or AA and thus a shove on the river would be recommended there are alot of cards that the villain would think he is ahead of you with Straight AQ or A10, However again judging by the limited amount of info i was able to extract on the pre river game id be inclined just to call there and see what the villain has.

 

[WVHillbilly]

If we shove what's he really looking us up with that we beat? A7 is about it, I would think.

I actually think we're behind here a lot because what kind of villain raises the river on that board with anything less than a boat? We'd certainly have some read by now if he were that that kind of villain and since we don't, I assume he's not.

I call, no fist-pump.

 

[tenbob]

Reminds me of an Irish Open hand that sparked a massive discussion between our own poker school last year. That time it was a middle set decision on the first level. I was advocating playing for stacks when the player in question put in half his stack and folded.

Our own line has been super-passive/weak so far, and even if villian is on a bluff it looks like we cannot call, our hand looks like an ace-rag. However we know different. I would imagine villian flatting AK and AJ (though our line looks weak and raising with them would also be valid here), raising AA,AQ,A10, A7 and KJ, which means that we are never folding But we knew that anyway.

If we shove or raise, we are getting action from AA,77,AQ,A10, KJ and A7/1010 (unlikely) and the occasional spew from a bad player holding AK, all hands there can fit the action. Now MTT play is about accumulation, and regardless of being 150bb deep I cannot fault a shove at all, these sort of situations do not arrive very often and when we are playing to WIN an MTT these hands need to go our way. I shove, especially considering how passive the line has been up until now. Then again I suck at MTT's.

Considering table image/meta game for a bit as well. Calling here just makes us look like scared money on the table to any player that is being observant. That can be good or bad depending on how we want to adjust our game going forward.

 

[WVHillbilly]

You really think he's calling a shove with AQ/AT? I can't even imagine most live players even raise the river bet with those hands, much less call if we shove. I know a lot of live players who wouldn't raise KJ on that river.

 

[tenbob]

Not very often, but yea I've seen live players call shoves with hands like that lots, and given OUR line raising with them is perfectly acceptable . Having said that the highest buyin I've played is around the $500-$700 mark.

 

[OzExorcist]

I'm with Tenbob on this one - we've played the hand super slow and passive and there's only two hands we're behind: AA and 77. 77 is super unlikely given the board, and does AA really overbet that flop?!? It's a weird play if they do, most players would be worried about the overbet killing their action.

Our action, on the other hand, makes it look like we're holding a medium ace (say AJ or AT) or something else marginal and we're making a blocking bet on the river.

Considering that, villain's raise on the river isn't actually that strong. I think we can definitely shove this and expect to get action from trips, straights, smaller boats and probably AQ/AT two pair hands. As well as the two hands that beat us, obv. The rest of the villain's range probably folds but that's no biggie.

So... yeah, I'd be shoving this for graet justice.

 

[burntrider]

I'll say Villain has AQ due to his overbet. Villain is following up his pre-flop raise with a c-bet making it look like he hit a set hoping to get Hero out. The reraise on the river is most likely because villain may now believe that he's ahead and Hero possibly missed a draw.

 

[HNRocketS]

I'm definetely shoving, the check on the turn is real bad. If you think he has AA or KJ good game. The value with the chips in the pot on the river the best play is definetely shove.

 

[OzExorcist]

I'm definetely shoving, the check on the turn is real bad. If you think he has AA or KJ good game. The value with the chips in the pot on the river the best play is definetely shove.

Um... we beat KJ

 

[Connon]

he means on the turn

 

[tpb221]

Shove it. We beat everything but AA,77. I can see him having 77 before the AA but alot of weaker hands will call. Shove it.

 

[OzExorcist]

he means on the turn

What... shoving about 27,000 into a pot that's only got 5300 in it? That'll ensure we only get called by hands that have us beat and we lose value from everything else.

 

[natsgrampy]

I would shove, I think based the way he bet, he has K,J and believes he has the best hand. My guess he thinks you have trip 7's

 

[Zybomb]

I think this is actually pretty close.

For the responders simply saying shove bc well we beat everything but AA and 77 you guys are missing the point. We are early in a super deep stacked tourny where if all the chips are in its pretty much the nuts or dammmmmmmmmmn close, so the majority of hands are folding

I have no problem with saying shove because we've underrepped our hand thus far and we expect to be called by the following range [TT KJ A7 AQ AT AK etc] if u can explain why you believe this

I also have no problem saying call bc we are so deep stacked and at this point in the tourny few people are going to put all their chips in without the nuts or very very close, so we're gunna fold out almost everything by shoving unless we hit a major cooler.

I personally think villains RAISING range can certainly include a wide range of hands since our hand looks weak.... but I mean look at his bet sizing, this isn't a call me sized raise trying to get value out of a weak Ace... regardless his calling range of a shove is certainly much smaller than his raising range. I'd say AA 77 A7 TT and possibly KJ.

My problem is that given the way villain played the hand TT and KJ make little sense (overbet the flop with either 3rd pair or a gutshot and then CHECK BEHIND when we turn 3rd set or the nut straight after our opponent has called a flop overbet?). A7, certainly makes sense though, betting large with top and bottom, then checking the turn for pot control in case we're against AQ/AT, and hitting our supposed gin on the river. AA or 77? I guess we might bet 77 hard on the flop hoping to get value from Big Aces, AA a little less likely but I dunno...the turn check is weird i guess?

I guess if we even limit villains range down to ONLY AA 77 and A7, there's 1 combo of 77 and 3 combos of AA (4 combos) that beat us and 6 combos of A7 that we beat, so it's a marginally +EV shove... add to the fact that TT and KJ could call as well, I guess it's a shove, but certainly not as cut and dry as it might appear

 

[Greyshadows]

Yea the numbers do add up to shove but my point is at these stakes and with the deepstack format why shove if ur not 100% sure ur ahead thats the beauty of deepstack if ur ahead u get paid and get to use those winnings to further expand ur chipstack and if ur behind ur hurt but still have enough chips to make something out of the tourney.

 

[Zybomb]

That also is a good point, numbers matter more in a cash game (where we are trying to extract the max value) than in tournaments (where we are more concerned with preserving our stack rather than maximizing the value of each individual hand). Another factor which makes it close

 

[OzExorcist]

I guess if we even limit villains range down to ONLY AA 77 and A7, there's 1 combo of 77 and 3 combos of AA (4 combos) that beat us and 6 combos of A7 that we beat, so it's a marginally +EV shove... add to the fact that TT and KJ could call as well, I guess it's a shove, but certainly not as cut and dry as it might appear

I think you're forgetting about the times the villain folds to our shove - we still win a big pot when that happens and that counts towards our EV as well.

You're completely ignoring the metagame aspects that Tenbob raised as well and they're important. If we just flat call this we're forcing ourself to catch hands for the rest of the time we're playing at this table because anyone observant will peg us as weak and run us over.

FWIW I think the villain folds a lot of the time when we shove here because a lot of the time he's going to have something like a big ace for two pair. But the fact that his calling range is small and we're behind the top end of it doesn't mean we shouldn't shove. Rarely villain will call with the best hand and we're out, sometimes he'll call with a worse hand and we win a big pot, and mostly he'll fold and we'll win a medium pot.

 

[arahel_jazz]

At this level (which I only dream about playing) I would have to give the villian cred and say that he's running with bullets. The overbet on the flop was intended to run off any middle pairs, the check on the turn was a freeze because of the draw, and the raise on the river is something that only AA or 77 would even try to pull off. No way you are going to bully someone off the river with that much in the pot.

 

[WVHillbilly]

At this level (which I only dream about playing) I would have to give the villian cred and say that he's running with bullets. The overbet on the flop was intended to run off any middle pairs, the check on the turn was a freeze because of the draw, and the raise on the river is something that only AA or 77 would even try to pull off. No way you are going to bully someone off the river with that much in the pot.

Ok, I advocated calling the river bet as well but why would top set want to run off an opponent with middle pair or anything else for that matter???

 

[arahel_jazz]

Ok, I advocated calling the river bet as well but why would top set want to run off an opponent with middle pair or anything else for that matter???

Mixed messages, sorry - If I have Ace-rag, I'm wanting to take the pot down on the flop to keep people from sucking out.

 

[Zybomb]

You're completely ignoring the metagame aspects that Tenbob raised as well and they're important. If we just flat call this we're forcing ourself to catch hands for the rest of the time we're playing at this table because anyone observant will peg us as weak and run us over..

This isnt a bad thing. All we have to do is adjust if they start doing this this. It can actually net us a lot more chips. Youre also forgetting that our situation is rare. We have 30k in chips with 100/200 blinds. The majority of this tournament is not going to be played with effective stacks of 150 BBs which obviously changes our strategy around. And just calling doesn't necessarily label us as weak, just possibly overly cauticious. I think the main downside is that our 3 bet river range would be observed as all nut hands, but again how often are we gunna be in a spot like this (before our table breaks none the less)

FYI Like I said, Im an advocate of shoving, (it's close though) but not for meta purposes. If I thought there were more combos that beat us that call than combos that we beat than call I think its a flat... I dont think we'd get a run me over image and even if we did that's not necessarily bad if we can adjust....like i said it might actually net us a lot more chips, although granted put us in a few tougher situations

 

[Ranny]

Very interesting scenerio.

3 bet from earlyish position.
Overbet flop
Check turn
River steal?

This is not an all in but definitely a raise, hoping for a call and probably calling a push.

Putting villain on Kk/JJ/TT overrbet on flop is repping the ace.

Only hand that scares me is 77.

Can't see AA betting that on flop.

The flop call worried, reason for turn check.

So I think we are ahead 90% of time.

Horrible way to play QQ though.

 

[Greyshadows]

I dont know i can respect the metagame image, but with a tourney this big and me standing with 300 BBS im really only shoving with the stone cold nuts as unlikely as 77 AA is the possiblity is still out there and im going to feel sick to my stomach if he turns em over after i all in. and when your talking this early in a tourney with deepstack format that 15kish im picking up is enough of a chip boost to afford me a good start and if i should end up with 15k then im still comforatable playing a regular tourney game. Point is i dont like putting all my eggs in one basked regardless of how strong my hand is im going to respect that river raise and call to show my opponent down.

 

[Aaronftw]

Flop standard, turn now hes either scared of KJ or slowing up because he possibly has bottom set and pegs you for a bigger set? The river fills hes quads 77 id say, im still calling i couldnt not call that river holding the 3rd nuts. Interesting hand wondering how it played out?