$16,5 NL HE MTT: JJ preflop facing 4 all-ins with 22 bigs

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

16,5

Currency

$

Hand is from a 16,5$ "Big" on pokerstars. Late reg has just closed, so we are still far from the money, and I only have just over the starting stack. Do you go with JJ facing all this action?

PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 125/250 (30 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 3,243 (13 bb)
UTG+1: 6,935 (28 bb)
MP: 5,000 (20 bb)
MP+1: 10,640 (43 bb)
CO: 4,595 (18 bb)
BU: 2,654 (11 bb)
SB: 17,553 (70 bb)
BB (Hero): 5,411 (22 bb)

Pre-Flop: (615) Hero is BB with J♣ J♠
UTG raises to 3,213 (all-in), UTG+1 calls 3,213, 2 players fold, CO 3-bets to 4,565 (all-in), 1 fold, SB 4-bets to 9,500, BB (Hero)?

 

[Andyreas]

Even if it's very tempting to quadruple (?) Your stack, I'd vote for no.

Chances are high you are facing at least one QQ+ pair or surely AT+.

So you'd might be doomed with any Q, K or A on the board.

I'm on my phone but I'd be curious to calculate the equity against those hands but I have to do that later.

What were the hands of your opponents?

 

[frost234]

Call

 

[fundiver199]

What were the hands of your opponents?

Will share results when people have had a bit more time to comment for more unbiased discussion

 

[300HPGOD]

Do we know anything about UTG +1? If we dont think they suck as a player then their call here should say something fairly clear. There is no hand given their stack that they should only be calling here with outside of AA and possibly KK. All other hands should be folding or jamming over. If we dont think they are bad then thats enough for me to probably fold right there. Then add in cutoff who does not need to get in the hand with two others already in front of him in for a lot of chips and then over jams their stack. I dont think they overjam 18 BBs here with anything less than 1010+, AQ suited+ and that might be a little loose of a range to give them. I would just fold here knowing their are times where it will be AK vs AK vs 1010 but not enough times imo to make up for the the bigger pairs I could run into here.

I guess also an argument can be made that UTG +1 calls because they think UTG being UTG with the blinds coming next hand will jam more lightly so they can all more lightly and then cutoff also thinks that so therefore they overjam more lightly but that kind of thinking I believe will get you into a lot of trouble. That would be like seeing the world only as how you want to see it and not how it really is. I fold here with the thought process from the first paragraph.

 

[SpanRmonka]

For me its a no. My reasoning is not massively in depth, but here it is. Do you even def want to flip here? So are you even calling UTG 100% of the time? Probably Yes but there some doubt. I much prefer to shove with JJ than call. But as soon as you have another opponent...UTG+1, he is calling your shove for sure, or he shouldn't be calling IMO. So now the likelihood of having a lot of overs increases, plus over pairs, and of course some underpairs, but UTG=1 doesn't have many AT or worse. They may have some AXs at times.

CO bet is the clincher tho, as he must know his bet has no fold equity, so at this point he has AK+,TT+ maybe some AQ minimum, so no at this point here and now I'm def not calling. Then we have another shove as well just to confirm.....or does this just add money to the pot????

This is where things get a bit beyond my tech level. Is the amount on offer enough for JJ to call profitably long term, I'm don't know for sure, I'm guessing the possibility is there. But for me its a no. My personal take on gaining a big stack and going deep is kind of like, you still need the luck later on too. The money is still really only top 3/5. would this call almost guarantee that, No, I doubt it, so therefore risk reward wise its a No from me.

I would love to hear some maths based analysis of this tho. Also what would we call here? Cos after 4 all ins I'm expecting AA? So is KK a call?

Great post!

 

[fundiver199]

Do we know anything about UTG +1? If we dont think they suck as a player then their call here should say something fairly clear. There is no hand given their stack that they should only be calling here with outside of AA and possibly KK. All other hands should be folding or jamming over. If we dont think they are bad then thats enough for me to probably fold right there.

UTG+1 was playing VPIP 25 / PFR 16 over 80 hands so definitely not the worst player in the world. And yeah that call for half his stack does smell pretty fishy. And even if UTG+1 had overjammed, its still to much action for JJ, so I folded. Results are shown below.

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[IADaveMark]

There's a 52% chance of an overcard to a J coming on the flop alone. With 3 people who are really excited about playing that hand, it is likely that the A, K, and Q are all covered. So that overcard hits someone.

Let it go.

 

[eetenor]

For me its a no. My reasoning is not massively in depth, but here it is. Do you even def want to flip here? So are you even calling UTG 100% of the time? Probably Yes but there some doubt. I much prefer to shove with JJ than call. But as soon as you have another opponent...UTG+1, he is calling your shove for sure, or he shouldn't be calling IMO. So now the likelihood of having a lot of overs increases, plus over pairs, and of course some underpairs, but UTG=1 doesn't have many AT or worse. They may have some AXs at times.

CO bet is the clincher tho, as he must know his bet has no fold equity, so at this point he has AK+,TT+ maybe some AQ minimum, so no at this point here and now I'm def not calling. Then we have another shove as well just to confirm.....or does this just add money to the pot????

This is where things get a bit beyond my tech level. Is the amount on offer enough for JJ to call profitably long term, I'm don't know for sure, I'm guessing the possibility is there. But for me its a no. My personal take on gaining a big stack and going deep is kind of like, you still need the luck later on too. The money is still really only top 3/5. would this call almost guarantee that, No, I doubt it, so therefore risk reward wise its a No from me.

I would love to hear some maths based analysis of this tho. Also what would we call here? Cos after 4 all ins I'm expecting AA? So is KK a call?

Great post!

It is always good to look at the math ourselves-----we do this by using Equilab---it is free----and putting a range for each player in equilab it lets us do as many as 6 at a time and then doing a simple odds calculation pot size over call size = equity needed to call and comparing that to the Equilab results