$1500 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $ : Interesting Huge Pot in Monster Stack.

[Jacki Burkhart]

I don't really know if this hand is a brag or a Hand Analysis, but there were a few interesting decision points; so I'll break it down.

This is day 2 of the wsop Monster Stack event. I have a tough table draw with 3 pros....our table had a TON of chips compared to the "average" table and I was 2nd in chips at the start of the day with 123,500. The pro in this hand started the day with 115,000. We are about 25-30 mins into day 2 and both of us were being pretty quiet and patient. I think "Villain Pro" had won 1 small pot.

Blinds are 200/600/1,200. So effective stacks are roughly 100bb.

it folds to my CO and I have so I raise it up to 3,000.

Villain Pro in the SB looks me up and down for a second, then 3bets to 7,000.

I realize KJ might be in big trouble vs a pro....but I decide since I'm in position and it's suited it's probably profitable enough to play this hand (good pot odds). I'm doing OK vs. his value 3bet range here which will be a lot of med pairs and 2 big card combos; plus it's entirely possible he is 3betting light because it's a late position raise. Still....I expect we are both playing straightforwardly at this point and my hand is not a solid favorite so I elect to just flat and play cautiously. I quickly tell myself I would have folded if I were out of position, if it wasn't suited, or if he raised bigger like to 8,000. I remind myself not to go broke with 100bb and 1 pair.

Pot contains 17,000 and the flop comes

BOOM! nice flop. My instant thought is "how do I get it all in?" but then I'm like "slow down. you just have top pair and the pot is too small to play for stacks right now anyways. You're going to have to play a pot vs this guy. Keep your cool, and you'll be fine"

I think my initial reaction to try and get the stacks in stemmed from the fact that I knew he was a pro and I was a little afraid to play a big pot against him. I was hoping to have easy decisions and I realized this hand could be tricky so I just kind of wanted to end it on the flop.

He bet 10,000 and I decide to flat. I briefly considered raising but if I raised to like 25,000 then I'd be pot committing myself with almost any action on the turn...and if I'm going to be pot committed I'd rather jam it in on the flop when I've still got 9 outs twice and better fold equity. And yet jamming on the flop seems stupid since I'll lose a ton of value and only get called by sets. Hence, the flat.

Pot contains 37,000 and the turn is the . He bets 10,000 again which I think is weird. why so small? Is this a blocking bet? Does it mean he is slowplaying a monster? Does it mean he is on a draw and trying to name his own price on his draw? (similar to blocking bet). I'm not sure what his bet size means....but in any case; flatting seems the best option yet again. A measure of pot control for the times I miss my draw and top pair is no good. And keeps his weaker draws on the hook. And when he is slowplaying a monster gives me good pot odds to suck out and win a huge pot.

Pot contains 57,000 and the river is the beautiful BINK!

To my surprise and delight he insta jams his remaining 90k.

I insta call with the 2nd nuts. 2nd nuts is good and I knock him out and have 240,000 at a time when the leaderboard says #1 in chips has 240,500.

Questions: What type of hand do you think the pro was holding?
What do we think of my line, aside from the river which is obviously really easy to play....but my questions are mostly about preflop, flop, turn. Did I take the best lines? What kinds of plans should I have been making for different river cards?

 

[Jblocher1]

Hey Jackie! While obviously I'm unfamiliar with live dynamics, I can offer you my take (even though it's not worth too much) .

Pre: open sizing is good, and I agree that we can flat 3 bets here when he sizes this small, however if you choose to take that line you need to keep in mind that villain pro will be barreling a large percentage of flops and you will be folding the flop on most textures. If villain sizes 9k I'm folding, but I totally understand your call here.

Flop: personally I am opting for a raise to 30k ish, and my plan is to GII on any turn that is not a non club ace. By flatting you allow villain pro to maintain control over the sizing and hand dynamics... When you do not improve on turn and villain fires a second barrel... At that point we likely need to find a fold, however we avoid this entirely by seizing control of the hand on this flop where our hand has very high amounts of equity against the range at which U described villains holdings. In your opinion villains 3 bet range was mid pocket pairs, and high cards... So let's say like... 55+/QK+/AJ+... Well the hands in villains range that can call a raise or shove on this flop are effectively 55/1010/KK those are really the only hands that villain can progress further with once you raise, he's gonna be folding AK i believe. I have no problem at this stage in a tourney (and I bet you would agree) winning 17k chips and increasing your stack a significant amount while not having to showdown and give away information. I just honestly don't see the value in flatting because when villain barrels the turn and we didn't improve... Life sucks for us and we likely find a fold... Especially if you find you are a bit scared and intimidated playing this villain.

Turn: in my chosen situation this hand doesn't progress to a turn because he ships sets on us on flop and folds most everything else. In your situation however, with his turn sizing I agree we can call for sure. River is Obv fine as played

Basically my question for U is this... On turns in which we don't improve after flatting, villain Obv will either continue and bet the turn or check it to us... When he bets (a normal amount here perhaps 15-20k) we will need to fold a lot. But what is your plan when he checks to you. Barrel an unimproved hand? Overall I'm just a guy that chooses to aggressively play TP + FD on flop combos so I opt for a flop raise (25k is probably better sizing) and if he ships it on you it will only be the set combos and we can perhaps find a fold (maybe). When he calls (not gonna happen as often IMO) we have seized control of the hand... He checks to us more often and we take the pot on turn regardless of whether or not we improve. When he folds well we just won a good sized pot and villain got no extra info.

Just my opinion, I'm sure actual live players will come here and destroy my opinion and that's ok but just my thoughts ☺️

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Hey Jackie! While obviously I'm unfamiliar with live dynamics, I can offer you my take (even though it's not worth too much) .

Your opinion is very valuable.. don't sell yourself short.

Pre: open sizing is good, and I agree that we can flat 3 bets here when he sizes this small, however if you choose to take that line you need to keep in mind that villain pro will be barreling a large percentage of flops and you will be folding the flop on most textures. If villain sizes 9k I'm folding, but I totally understand your call here.

I agree villain pro will be barreling a lot of flops, but I disagree that means I'll have to fold a lot of flops. I think it's pretty standard nowadays (in live poker at least) to expect a near 100% Cbet range and to float 1 street in position. His Cbet means nothing, and I don't think I can play this hand profitably if I just fold to his Cbets when I whiff. I'll probably elect to float 1 street on all but the worst flops. "worst" being Ace with 2 rags, or 3 red small cards. But if I've got something like 2 overs and a backdoor flush draw; I think I gotta float. Or just fold pre. That is a big part of the reason why I was more comfortable playing the suited KJ vs the offsuit. gives me more ways to continue = more ways to take it away with position.

Flop: personally I am opting for a raise to 30k ish, and my plan is to GII on any turn that is not a non club ace. By flatting you allow villain pro to maintain control over the sizing and hand dynamics... When you do not improve on turn and villain fires a second barrel... At that point we likely need to find a fold, however we avoid this entirely by seizing control of the hand on this flop where our hand has very high amounts of equity against the range at which U described villains holdings. In your opinion villains 3 bet range was mid pocket pairs, and high cards... So let's say like... 55+/QK+/AJ+... Well the hands in villains range that can call a raise or shove on this flop are effectively 55/1010/KK those are really the only hands that villain can progress further with once you raise, he's gonna be folding AK i believe. I have no problem at this stage in a tourney (and I bet you would agree) winning 17k chips and increasing your stack a significant amount while not having to showdown and give away information. I just honestly don't see the value in flatting because when villain barrels the turn and we didn't improve... Life sucks for us and we likely find a fold... Especially if you find you are a bit scared and intimidated playing this villain.

yeah, I think the flop is the real decision point in this hand. my "normal" game would definitely be to inflate this pot on the flop and then get it in on any safe turn card. I think I was allowing myself to be intimidated by the tough table draw and got thrown off my typical game a bit.

But on the other hand....I distinctly considered that choice and rejected it because I thought the stack sizes were not ideal for this high aggression/high variance line. I think if we had like 40-50bb then jamming the flop would be best, and if we had super deep stacks like 150-200bb then raising with the intent to fold to a shove would be better. but if I raise this flop I don't know if I can fold to his shove with our stack sizes...which sucks because his shove range will be a lot of sets.

Turn: in my chosen situation this hand doesn't progress to a turn because he ships sets on us on flop and folds most everything else. In your situation however, with his turn sizing I agree we can call for sure.

The obvious benefit of your recommended flop raise is that the turn is super easy to play (usually because it doesn't happen), or we just get it in.

Basically my question for U is this... On turns in which we don't improve after flatting, villain Obv will either continue and bet the turn or check it to us... When he bets (a normal amount here perhaps 15-20k) we will need to fold a lot. But what is your plan when he checks to you. Barrel an unimproved hand? Overall I'm just a guy that chooses to aggressively play TP + FD on flop combos so I opt for a flop raise (25k is probably better sizing) and if he ships it on you it will only be the set combos and we can perhaps find a fold (maybe). When he calls (not gonna happen as often IMO) we have seized control of the hand... He checks to us more often and we take the pot on turn regardless of whether or not we improve. When he folds well we just won a good sized pot and villain got no extra info.

Just my opinion, I'm sure actual live players will come here and destroy my opinion and that's ok but just my thoughts ☺️

on turns which I don't improve after flatting, I'm probably gonna peel 1 more street to a normal sized turn bet. (like half pot). If he overbets the turn I'll probably fold. If he triple barrels and the river is a blank I'll have to seriously consider folding depending on the bet size and my read. This would cause me to lose up to 36,000 on this hand which is about a quarter of my stack and I would not be happy about that, but it's a totally survivable hit.

If he checks the turn to me, I'll just check it back to simultaneously pot control and take the free card to my draw. Now my hand is underrepped and I can call almost any river bet on almost any river card and pick off a lot of his bluffs since I took a "weak" line many pros will frequently try to buy the pot on the river when we check/check the turn and the draw misses.

edit to add: I play live a little differently than I play online because there is the "girl" factor live. It has been quite profitable for me to call down in position and let players bet and bet and bet trying to get the girl to lay her hand down. The weaker I'm acting, the more I have to be willing to suck it up and call. This guy didn't strike me as particularly aggro...but his resume suggests that he is very skilled....

 

[floppymcflopperson]

I think maybe he had qj or kq. The fact that u didn't raise your flush draw or even top pr made it very deceptive. He could have been pot controlling on the turn and shoved the riv thinking you would have raised a flush draw on the previous streets . why else would he bet so small on the turn? A set would make u pay to realize any draw equity same with two pr. Cool hand

 

[floppymcflopperson]

OK prob not kq, he would have bet more on the turn...idk. Jj? Tough one

 

[teepack]

I would have done the hand the exact same way as you. Hard to lay down a suited K-J with your stack size and the size of his re-raise, and I would have told myself to be cautious post-flop. The very nice flop and his bet sizing enabled you to get to the river fairly inexpensively and then get a nice reward.

I guess he might have had AK. He might have also had AQ and was simply trying to make you think HE had the clubs pocket. I think he also might have had pocket 10s and was value-betting you the rest of the way, although the river shove there is inexplicable given the possibility you were chasing a flush.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Spoiler:




He had AdJd for the missed flush draw/gutshot