$150 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Short Stacked 88 with no fold equity facing 2 raisers....

[Jacki Burkhart]

$150 NLHE MTT Turbo Rebuy: Short Stacked 88 with no fold equity facing 2 raisers....

This is from a live $150 MTT Turbo Rebuy with Add-on last night. 155 runners started and 18 are paid and we are down to 22 players....so 4 from the money.

Blinds just went up to 8,000/16,000 with a 2,000 ante. We are 7 handed and I am in the BB with 118,000 (7.5bbs). Average stack is only 240,000 so the whole tournament is pretty short stacked.

It folds around to the button who has 250,000 and has been moderately active and aggressive. He raises to 40,000. His range is HUGE something like 40-50% of hands here with I'd guess a bunch of suited and unsuited connecters and 1 gappers in his range.

The SB goes all in for 98,000. He has been tight and patient, but he is a good player and knows that button raise doesn't mean anything. He also is going to be jamming for value because he also probably knows he doesn't have any fold equity. I'd estimate he will jam here with 44+, A2s+, A8o+, K9s+, KJo+, QJs.

So I look down at pot contains 168,000 and so if I jam and the Button folds I'll be getting 1.64:1 direct pot odds meaning I need to win 37% of the time to break even right here.

If I jam and the button calls I'll be getting essentially 2.64:1 pot odds or I'd need to win 27% of the time to break even right here.

Jam or fold?

It is also worth noting that the "culture" in this poker club is to pay 1 or 2 bubbles their buy in back almost every tournament; so we're pretty close to the money but my stack is probably too short to just fold my way there. (plus.... how BORING!) Not to mention I am just not interested in min-cashing. I mean I don't want to throw my stack and tournament equity away, but the money from the min cash does not matter to me. I want that $6,000 first place!

 

[horizon12]

I badly understand in live poker, but why BUT only min raise , it looks very strange..
BUT sees before him the two short stacks , how you say he aggrasive , i think before bubble with lose range he only shove here , what steal blinds.... I think now BUT have top range hands....

This situation is rather strange what LAG min raise and tight SB shove, so better fold nearby bubble.. We are already here behind..

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

it is not actually a min raise from the button, it is a 2.5x raise and in the late stages of live tourneys when everybody is short stacked it is very common. Actually, min raises are even more common and 2.5x raises are on the "big side" and nobody really 3x raises anymore once the average stack is less than 40bbs.

And the SB "min raised" because that was the maximum he could raise since he was all in with his short stack.

Edit to Add: Although I don't have any fold equity in this spot....I really don't have any FE at all at this table in future hands either, because the tourney big stack is 3 to my left with 600,000+ and he is calling short stacked all ins with impunity. He has called all ins with hands like 35o, 74s, 85s etc. He has actually doubled me up 3 times keeping me in the tourney....but I've shown down some pretty weak holdings on my jams, but then he calls with worse and I double up! Who knew I was value jamming with T6s?

 

[horizon12]

Well, if such raise from BUT , its normal in this table.... Then it is easy shove here , because i think we have fold equity vs BUT , sure vs LAG we always have fold equity , not many call here with marginal hand near bubble....

And vs 1 player we have around 50% equity hope on coinflip, vs 2 player if BUT call around 30% equity , Its fine , if you play on the top 3 in the tournament...

 

[horizon12]

I'm curious, how did you know that there is no fold equity ? Not very often BUT can call two all-in before bubble without good hands , if he only steal ( exactly we can not know )..

 

[Martinez]

Well, from your post here and saying there is no fold equity, I would shove. The reason behind the shove is from the info you gave about the other player who seems to like seeing flops.
At this stage, it is much better to be the agressor plus, he has to decide whether or not to add another 80k to the pot, plus you mentioned that you don't wish to fold your way thru.

 

[Four Dogs]

Damn, this isn't a no brainer. I keep flip floppin' on my opinion. On the one hand you are getting decent odds to call and you're unlikely to see a better hand than this in the next orbit. Getting it in can't be a bad play here. On the other hand if you do get it in you're probably a coinflip at best against villains range. You might be better off waiting a hand or two and shoving any two from the SB or button. Then again you might not get the chance. I guess I stick it in and hope for the best.

 

[Four Dogs]

I'm curious, how did you know that there is no fold equity ? Not very often BUT can call two all-in before bubble without good hands , if he only steal ( exactly we can not know )..

Because the SB is all-in.

 

[horizon12]

Because the SB is all-in.

How about BUT ???? Its too important, he fold or call , because if he fold when we shove, most of the time will be coinflip vs one villain ( SB ) ,, So we here have fold equity vs BUT....

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I have no fold equity because I cannot win the pot without a showdown AND its unlikely the Button can fold much of his playable range getting 3.5:1 on a call.

As it turns out the button did fold to my jam. his range must have been even wider than I thought to turn down those odds (or he just doesn't understand pot odds).

So...the SB turned over KK, board ran out dry and I was crippled down to 1BB...

 

[horizon12]

Ohhh,
Fold equity is defined for each player individually, not in whole who in spot .... Now you there have fold equity vs BUT , because there is a chance that he fold when you shove,,,

And fold equity this not only win ships without showdown, this hand example.... because we increasing the value of our hands if show our 88 vs BUT.... Our fold equity vs BUT increasing , because now he need have more good hands what play vs 2 all in,,,

Now we play only vs BUT ( SB already end game ) in this spot.. and the need to define range hands BUT ( not SB ) that's why there fold equity... What BUT will do after our action..

 

[WiZZiM]

Well if its profitable to call vs the sb in terms of equity give yourself and estimated cushion for when the button wakes up witb something. I think its close so either calling or folding are fine. Since you dont care about the bubble then call it.

 

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

You're almost always facing two overs here because you're getting called by both players. Other times 3 or 4 overs or you're domjnated by the SB and even if it's only two overs you probably also have to dodge a set. I don't like it. There's better spots. Sucks the sb ruined your plans but I would fold it.

 

[Pavelito51]

well dude it's kinf of difficult, it really depends on your read, when it is the kind of players you described I would have fold if the AI was from EP, in that particular spot and as you said you want the 1st place you have to push

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

You're almost always facing two overs here because you're getting called by both players. Other times 3 or 4 overs or you're domjnated by the SB and even if it's only two overs you probably also have to dodge a set. I don't like it. There's better spots. Sucks the sb ruined your plans but I would fold it.

I tanked before pushing and I was estimating the odds that I'm facing 2 3 or 4 overs and comparing it to the pot odds. Obviously if I feel either of them has a bigger pair I just fold...but there are only 36 combos of bigger pairs and lots more combos of over cards.

If I'm in the situation of facing over cards where they share eachothers outs (say button raised with A7 and SB pushed with AK). Then the situation is too profitable to pass up. If I'm facing 4 overs it is basically a break even spot. If they have a big pair I'm crushed.

Yeah...I can probably find a better spot but I do only have 7.5 bbs...

It was a tough one for me. I tanked forever. I think 88 is the cutoff hand here...do we all agree 99+ Is a call? Or if not...what is the pushing range here?

 

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

I think you're right about 99 but even if they are sharing an out than you're still dodging 8 out twice plus some straight draws and that's best case. Yeah sometimes the SB is jamming with 44 here but too often you are flipping or dominated. Even if he's pushing with KT you're facing overs. Lot's of times this spot will be T9 v KJ or something like that. The important thing is that even though you are getting odds think about what the loss does to your stack. You have to factor that impact into your decision and not rely on pot odds only. Maybe I've just called all in with 88 and lost one too many times. . .

 

[Everybodylovesdeuces]

The more I think about it 99 is a definite call because think about how much more of their range you are crushing. All of the 89, T9, J9, K9. Only one of those is the 88 dominating.