$150 NL HE MTT: GGMasters Day 1| 76s in SB

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

150

Currency

$

So I'm doing a review of all the Day 1 and also the Day 2 of this tournament and I'm seeing some interesting hands that I will post in the coming days. I would very much like your guys feedback on them.

Level 6 of the blinds:

UTG has only 25 hands played with this stats: VPIP 40, PFR 4, Limp 38, Cold Call (calls the open raise) 33, 3-bet 8 and post flop Agg 0

Also on the GGPoker stats he has a VPIP 51 * I'm seeing this as I review the hand in PokerCraft.

What I gather from this stats is that he is a passive player, but since he raise UTG I really think that he has a strong hand. So pre-flop this is the range that I put him on:


Pre-flop: Even though I'm in SB I decided to complete his range since post flop I really think that 76s has good playability.

Flop: Now this board hits me with bottom pair and his range also, but more my range then his...also I don't want to play a big pot so I decided to just check and call a bet from his part.

Turn: Now that Q hits him more then me and if he had AQ, AK, he got there with this turn so taking that into account I decided to check and if he bets again I will fold and move on.

River: That is a card that I like and also I don't like since is good for me but that complete a flush. Now here is where I think I made a mistake, when I decided to bet instead of check/calling just because I did not think that he would raise me there, for the simple fact that he checked back the turn. So in my eyes I bet for value here.
What would you guys/ladies do here?

* I will post the results later

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 80/160 (20 ante) - 8 players


UTG: 11,007 (69 bb)
UTG+1: 14,997 (94 bb)
MP: 9,755 (61 bb)
MP+1: 7,332 (46 bb)
CO: 7,148 (45 bb)
BU: 9,010 (56 bb)
SB (Hero): 8,361 (52 bb)
BB: 10,879 (68 bb)

Pre-Flop: (400) Hero is SB with 7♥ 6♥
UTG raises to 320, 5 players fold, Hero calls 240, 1 fold

Flop: (960) T♣ J♠ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 480, Hero calls 480

Turn: (1,920) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (1,920) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 1,421, UTG raises to 4,993, Hero calls ?

 

[Andyreas]

Interesting hand!

Let's use your assumptions on his range and verify each of your actions:

Preflop:
Generally: Easy defend against UTG with suited connectors.
In detail: If we look at the numbers. You have around 30% equity against this tight range, so also mathematically a profitable call for you:


Flop:
You hit bottom pair but the suits aren't in your favour. He can also have some strong flush or straight draws here. So definitely agree on your check decision.

In detail:
Your equity slightly increased to 38%, so you can call his bet of half pot again here.



Turn:
Obviously not a great card for you.

In detail, it crushed you equity since all hands in his range currently beat you. Your equity goes down to 6%, so definitely not going to bet here and you'd have to fold to any reasonable bet.



River:
Luckily he checked back on turn and as you say, a good card for you but also not the best one. 😅

As you already figured, leading here isn't great since he has position and still has many hands in his range that beat you. So I'd check and see if he bet and how big.

Equity wise it's 50/50: so you could call anything less than full pot profitably and a full pot bet is a neutral EV action.

Since he raised, it's a complicated decision here since you're risking half of your stack and I'd assume he is only raising with a hand that beats you, so I'd fold here.



Interesting analysis and ofc no chance to do this analysis in real time but I like these exercises. ☺️

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Calling a small suited connector from SB against a tight range is a long term losing play, so I would just fold here and not even worry about it. Defending by calling from SB is way worth than calling from BB, especially to a small raise, because you are getting a worse price and not closing action. BB can still 3-bet, which would force you to fold. And this is why, a SB calling range need to be way tighter than a BB calling range.

Flop
As played I guess, you cant fold, when you flopped a pair. At least you beat hands like AK, AQ and KQ now.

Turn
Very bad card for you, since now AK, AQ and KQ got there. But luckily he checked back.

River
Seems fine to bet for value with trips, but maybe your sizing is a bit on the large side, since the board is now very scary for the kind of hands, you are trying to get called by. Like maybe AA, KK, AQ or KQ. You do go large though, and then you get raised, which frankly sucks. I dont think, a straight or two pair play like this, or at least it makes no sense. But he could check a set on the turn being scared of a straight, and now that he board is paired, he raise his boat for value. Or maybe he somehow backed into a flush. You only beat a bluff like maybe busted spades, and if he wanted to bluff, then why not bet the turn? This is also someone, who is very passive preflop, and now he raise the river, which basically scream nuts. So I fold here and live to fight another day.

 

[rastapapolos]

OTR I'm choosing to check call, there are a lot of hands that beats our trips + villain may choose to value thin.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop:
Generally: Easy defend against UTG with suited connectors.
In detail: If we look at the numbers. You have around 30% equity against this tight range, so also mathematically a profitable call for you

In general your analysis is very usefull in illustrating, how we need to think about the different streets. But preflop you miss the crucial point, that Hero was not closing the action. It was a min-raise, and BB should defend to that the vast majority of the time. So BB folding was a dream situation, which wont happen very often at all. And this totally change the math, because if BB call, now we need to calculate our equity against not one but two ranges, and if BB 3-bets, we need to fold.

The other issue is, that we are always going to underrealise equity out of position against a stronger range, because future betting does not work in our favour. Which I actually think, this hand illustrate. We ended up making trips in a hand, where the turn got checked through, but we still found ourselfes in a bluff catching situation on the river. Which basically highlight the fact, that when are we really happy with our small suited connector, except when we flop the nut straight or something? They really are some of the most overvalued hands in poker. They look so pretty, but the hard reality is, most people would see better results, if they played them less frequently.

 

[Andyreas]

In general your analysis is very usefull in illustrating, how we need to think about the different streets. But preflop you miss the crucial point, that Hero was not closing the action. It was a min-raise, and BB should defend to that the vast majority of the time. So BB folding was a dream situation, which wont happen very often at all. And this totally change the math, because if BB call, now we need to calculate our equity against not one but two ranges, and if BB 3-bets, we need to fold.

The other issue is, that we are always going to underrealise equity out of position against a stronger range, because future betting does not work in our favour. Which I actually think, this hand illustrate. We ended up making trips in a hand, where the turn got checked through, but we still found ourselfes in a bluff catching situation on the river. Which basically highlight the fact, that when are we really happy with our small suited connector, except when we flop the nut straight or something? They really are some of the most overvalued hands in poker. They look so pretty, but the hard reality is, most people would see better results, if they played them less frequently.

You're absolutely right! When reading the post I oversaw that we're talking about SB instead of BB. Even if it's in the title and text, people still interpret what they want. 🤣

When reading through your post, I realised my mistake but my post was already out. 🙃

They sometimes make great hands but indeed, if I'm super deep and call behind with them in late position, the times I make a hand I go to showdown with or win the pot, is pretty rare.

 

[fundiver199]

You're absolutely right! When reading the post I oversaw that we're talking about SB instead of BB. Even if it's in the title and text, people still interpret what they want. 🤣

Ok that explains. From BB its completely standard to defend to a min-raise with almost any suited hand and certainly suited connectors.

They sometimes make great hands but indeed, if I'm super deep and call behind with them in late position, the times I make a hand I go to showdown with or win the pot, is pretty rare.

Suited connectors are very misunderstood. If you are in late position, they can be good hands to mix in to your range to run some big multistreet bluffs. But we are almost never playing them solely with the intention to try to make a hand.

 

[eetenor]

So I'm doing a review of all the Day 1 and also the Day 2 of this tournament and I'm seeing some interesting hands that I will post in the coming days. I would very much like your guys feedback on them.

Level 6 of the blinds:

UTG has only 25 hands played with this stats: VPIP 40, PFR 4, Limp 38, Cold Call (calls the open raise) 33, 3-bet 8 and post flop Agg 0

Also on the GGPoker stats he has a VPIP 51 * I'm seeing this as I review the hand in PokerCraft.

What I gather from this stats is that he is a passive player, but since he raise UTG I really think that he has a strong hand. So pre-flop this is the range that I put him on:
View attachment 325677

Pre-flop: Even though I'm in SB I decided to complete his range since post flop I really think that 76s has good playability.

Flop: Now this board hits me with bottom pair and his range also, but more my range then his...also I don't want to play a big pot so I decided to just check and call a bet from his part.

Turn: Now that Q hits him more then me and if he had AQ, AK, he got there with this turn so taking that into account I decided to check and if he bets again I will fold and move on.

River: That is a card that I like and also I don't like since is good for me but that complete a flush. Now here is where I think I made a mistake, when I decided to bet instead of check/calling just because I did not think that he would raise me there, for the simple fact that he checked back the turn. So in my eyes I bet for value here.
What would you guys/ladies do here?

* I will post the results later

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 80/160 (20 ante) - 8 players


UTG: 11,007 (69 bb)
UTG+1: 14,997 (94 bb)
MP: 9,755 (61 bb)
MP+1: 7,332 (46 bb)
CO: 7,148 (45 bb)
BU: 9,010 (56 bb)
SB (Hero): 8,361 (52 bb)
BB: 10,879 (68 bb)

Pre-Flop: (400) Hero is SB with 7♥ 6♥
UTG raises to 320, 5 players fold, Hero calls 240, 1 fold

Flop: (960) T♣ J♠ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 480, Hero calls 480

Turn: (1,920) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (1,920) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 1,421, UTG raises to 4,993, Hero calls ?

We want to preplan our hands as always
First step---- how does 76s play vs a UTG range -as others have stated not well-why?
Equity realization-low OOP- We can reduce our raw equity by 25% if we cannot get to a river so vs UTG range if we had 30% raw equity our EqR is only 22.5%
Dominance Factor- low -as UTG just does not have many stack off hands at 50bb that we dominate when we hit. This impacts our lower EqR as we cannot balance it by over realizing equity with our nut hands
They do have hands that can dominate our 1 pair hands and our flushes so we have low DomF and high Reverse Implied odds

When we call we are also increasing the chances we will go 3 way which further reduces our Raw Equity and EqR

So our GTO play from Sb with suited connectors would be to 3 bet bluff/fold however 76s is too low a combo to raise here-

As played
When we get this flop we preplan by thinking about the highest frequency ways we win this hand
1 We have 1 pair and get to showdown -low probability vs a UTG range with this type of flop and bad turn cards for us
2 We hit two pair hands on turn- however we have only 1 clean out for two pair and our V has sets here or high equity draws
3 We make trips- low freq outcome and still gives us second best hands and our V has high equity hands to river us with

So with this hand on this board on a half pot bet size we can fold flop-

 

[mariussica88]

Thank you all for the replies. I agree with all off you when you guys say that defending 76s from SB is a mistake, that was the first one, the second one is calling the flop hoping to improve and finally the most expensive one is betting/calling his raise on the river.

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 80/160 (20 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 11,007 (69 bb)
UTG+1: 14,997 (94 bb)
MP: 9,755 (61 bb)
MP+1: 7,332 (46 bb)
CO: 7,148 (45 bb)
BU: 9,010 (56 bb)
SB (Hero): 8,361 (52 bb)
BB: 10,879 (68 bb)

Pre-Flop: (400) Hero is SB with 7♥ 6♥
UTG raises to 320, 5 players fold, Hero calls 240, 1 fold

Flop: (960) T♣ J♠ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 480, Hero calls 480

Turn: (1,920) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (1,920) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 1,421, UTG raises to 4,993, Hero calls 3,572

Total pot: 11,906

Showdown:
UTG shows A♣ J♣ (a flush, Ace high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 61%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 93%, River: 100%)

SB (Hero) shows 7♥ 6♥ (three of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 39%, Flop: 18%, Turn: 7%, River: 0%)

UTG wins 11,906

 

[eetenor]

Thank you all for the replies. I agree with all off you when you guys say that defending 76s from SB is a mistake, that was the first one, the second one is calling the flop hoping to improve and finally the most expensive one is betting/calling his raise on the river.

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 80/160 (20 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 11,007 (69 bb)
UTG+1: 14,997 (94 bb)
MP: 9,755 (61 bb)
MP+1: 7,332 (46 bb)
CO: 7,148 (45 bb)
BU: 9,010 (56 bb)
SB (Hero): 8,361 (52 bb)
BB: 10,879 (68 bb)

Pre-Flop: (400) Hero is SB with 7♥ 6♥
UTG raises to 320, 5 players fold, Hero calls 240, 1 fold

Flop: (960) T♣ J♠ 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 480, Hero calls 480

Turn: (1,920) Q♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (1,920) 6♣ (2 players)
Hero bets 1,421, UTG raises to 4,993, Hero calls 3,572

Total pot: 11,906

Showdown:
UTG shows A♣ J♣ (a flush, Ace high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 61%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 93%, River: 100%)

SB (Hero) shows 7♥ 6♥ (three of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 39%, Flop: 18%, Turn: 7%, River: 0%)

UTG wins 11,906

It may help you to do a river spot only review of your actions- to be able to make the best decision in those tough spots

For example on this river why did we lead? Often we lead to get value from worse and or to block our V from making a huge river bet bluff
In this spot on this board what worse hands do we expect to call this sizing? What hands are we bluffing this sizing? How often are we bluffing on this board with no blockers?
If we had a block bet component to our sizing we expect our V to just call-yet they raised how does that effect our new perception of their range? What bluffs does the V have here? Take another look at this specific board---this board contains possible full houses- straights and flushes which we have and would bet- how many standard V will bluff vs our sizing vs our very nut possible range?

We also want to think about what is the worst hand we should call vs this new V range- It is good to take a moment to not just think I have trips but how good is trips vs what our V is repping for value? We can practice that now to make it quicker in-game

We start by listing the nuts-and their % probability- Q's full low % due to turn check back but not 0- JJ? TT? 6x? full houses are possible as played if the V feared the straights but at this stack depth low % as played
Straights possible again check back less likely- big raise very unlikely
Flushes low % of flush combos are opened UTG GTO but this V range maybe unknown? The issue is many of the flushes that do open UTG GTO do hit this board KJ AJ AK A9-

While the % of each nut hand is low for over all range we see that the V can have as a group a very strong % of nuts in their range here when they raise-

Take the time to think about what worse hands and bluffs that raise this river as played and compare it to how many of the above combos

I think you will very quickly find that your 76 is not good enough to call -add in the fact that we overfold to standard players

 

[feisas7991]

fold pre
fold otf
on the river its sigh call imo. tho worth running it calculator. you dont lose to much there but at the same time you dont win that often either.
biggest blunder was preflop and on the flop imo. must fold vs his reasonably tight face up range there
Hope this helps and Good Luck