$12 NLHE STT Turbo: AA vs weird postflop line

[OzExorcist]

$12 NL HE STT Turbo: AA vs weird postflop line

Early game, no particular reads on villain. I'm just having trouble wrapping my head around villain's line: WTF flats preflop then donkshoves for twice the pot, and do we call or fold?


full tilt poker $11 + $1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t30/t60 Blinds - 7 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: t1475
BB: t2390
UTG: t4210
UTG+1: t2105
MP: t1425
CO: t545
Hero (BTN): t1350

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is BTN with A

A

2 folds, MP calls t60, 1 fold, Hero raises to t180, SB calls t150, 1 fold, MP calls t120

Flop: (t600) 9

J

8

(3 players)
SB bets t1295 all in, MP folds, Hero wants to know WWKLD...

 

[WiZZiM]

We're probably ahead of his range, but how far ahead? We're getting terrible odds to call what's most likely a pair and straight draw type hand, it hits limpy players ranges pretty well, but it seems odd to just shove, which makes me weight their range toward unmade hands, like J 10 or something along those lines. As for calling, i really haven't got a clue. My guess is it's probably a fold? we're risking our tournament on what is most likely a flip situation, getting horrible odds... could be wrong on this one though.

 

[cjatud2012]

My first reaction is to snap here, but it's probably a little closer than that. We need about 40% equity for this to be a +cEV call, let's assume with ICM tax we need about 45%. Messing around with propokertools I'm struggling to find a realistic situation where we're worse than 50/50 so from a purely ICM standpoint it's profitable. I suppose you could argue that we could pass up this spot to capitalize on +$EV spots later on but I don't really think this is one of those spots.

 

[WiZZiM]

My first reaction is to snap here, but it's probably a little closer than that. We need about 40% equity for this to be a +cEV call, let's assume with ICM tax we need about 45%. Messing around with propokertools I'm struggling to find a realistic situation where we're worse than 50/50 so from a purely ICM standpoint it's profitable. I suppose you could argue that we could pass up this spot to capitalize on +$EV spots later on but I don't really think this is one of those spots.

You can also argue that taking this "flip" will give us even better +EV spots later on in the tournament.

 

[Rldetheflop]

I think this is a snap call personally. I think we can safely remove sets, 2 pair or made straight hands as donk shoving the flop almost never means that.

no other hand are we less than approx 55% fav we are getting 1.4:1 on a call so to me thats a call.

 

[cjatud2012]

You can also argue that taking this "flip" will give us even better +EV spots later on in the tournament.

Very true.

All-in-all we really have to call here.