$11 NLHE STT: nb

[thunder1276]

full tilt poker $10 + $1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 1210796
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (MP2): t1425 35.62 BBs
CO: t1395 34.88 BBs
BTN: t1105 27.62 BBs
SB: t1490 37.25 BBs
BB: t2405 60.12 BBs
UTG: t1405 35.12 BBs
UTG+1: t1545 38.62 BBs
UTG+2: t1580 39.50 BBs
MP1: t1150 28.75 BBs

Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is MP2 with A ♣ Q ♦
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t40, 1 fold, Hero raises to t160, 1 fold, BTN calls t160, 3 folds

Flop: (t420) 9 ♥ 4 ♦ Q ♠ (2 players)
Hero bets t300, BTN calls t300

Turn: (t1020) K ♣ (2 players)
Hero??

I figure he could have Q or 9 as well as 10 J and maybe a K. Should I bet and hope he has a Q, 9 or nothing? what do I do if I check and he bets. I guess I could fold with a little over 20BB.

 

[Xavier]

The king looks scary card. It means possible holdings KQ, J10 or KJ if hes spewy improves to beat you.

In fact most of the times though if you're ahead on the flop you're ahead on the turn here.
He could have QJ, Q10, 1010, JJ, 88.

Trouble is is you shove you mostly only get called by hands beating you assuming he has any sense.

If you check and he shoves I 'd hate it but I think you're pot committed then as you get 2.5 to 1 odds on a call.

Now I've thought about it I think you should put him all in on the turn, as you may get called by hands like QJ, Q10, 1010 which would check behind you otherwise.
Checking the turn doesn't seem to have much value when you are pot committed to call if he goes all in after anyway.

 

[cjatud2012]

Can you provide an exact range that you think he'd call the flop bet with? That should help us get a better answer.

 

[Xavier]

I guess hes calling the flop with AQ,KQ,QJ,Q10,J10,1010,66-88 or the nasty sets 44 and 99, maybe KJ if hes really spewy.

 

[cjatud2012]

Well I meant for thunder to do it, but thanks lol

 

[WiZZiM]

Seems totally fine to just shove the turn, he should call with worse. We know he is pretty bad, calling the iso raise, unless he's trapping (which happens a lot these days). With lack of reads, i'll assume he's bad, so shoving the turn for value is fine.

 

[baudib1]

shove the turn

 

[thunder1276]

Seems totally fine to just shove the turn, he should call with worse. We know he is pretty bad, calling the iso raise, unless he's trapping (which happens a lot these days). With lack of reads, i'll assume he's bad, so shoving the turn for value is fine.

Is shoving here this early in the tourney worth the risk though? I could check-fold to the scare card and still have enough left to last a while since the blinds are so small.

 

[WiZZiM]

Worth the risk? We HAVE to take risks to win tournaments, there is little sense in blinding out. What tends to happen is that we end up finishing in 4th and 3rd place a lot of the time, which kills our ROI. Our end goal in SNGs is to make the money 38-40% of the time, and ideally, we want to win tournaments more often than not. Getting a high ITM % of 45% may seem great, But if we are mostly getting 3rd places, then our ROI will be far worse.

Check/folding really isn't an option, we would be getting over 2:1 to make a call, and he doesn't have to hit that king very often.

You have to think about his entire range in these spots. He could have hit the king, he could have a queen, he could have a 9, he could have a random draw, he could even have something as weak as A4 in this spot and he'd be drawing dead. Point is, we are ahead more times we are behind in this spot, so shoving for value is fine. Sure sometimes we shove and he calls with a King, but they wouldn't outweigh the times where he calls with worse hands and we double up.

 

[baudib1]

if you want to c/f this turn bet smaller on the flop. people peel this flop with a lot of underpairs (JJ/TT/88-77 etc).

 

[-Phil Ivey27]

Idk it's pretty close. I like the 300 cbet, even though I sometimes bet smaller, you pretty much just got unlucky here - worst card in the deck for you was the K. I'm not exactly positive, but I might just check here because I am pretty worried about that K, i'm gonna try to analyze his bet and go from there but, if I check i'm probably folding.

If he has that QJ, Q10, JJ, TT, 88-77, J9, 10 9, A9, whatever, then I really don't see him betting when it's checked to him. I see pretty much all of these hands would be fine to check behind.

If he bets I am assuming he does not have these hands and it would be dangerous for me to be in there without some sort of read on this guy, or a read on his bet, or whatever. Point is he's not calling the flop and pushing the turn on a bluff, so it narrows it down.