$11 NLHE STT: Broadway cards in the SB with a SS BB + BS open

[Jillychemung]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 28/12/1

poker stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t25 - 4 players

BTN: t15248 M = 21.78
Hero (SB): t6550 M = 9.36
BB: t3675 M = 5.25
CO: t15027 M = 21.47

Pre Flop: (t700) Hero is SB with K:diamond: Q:heart:
CO raises to t1500, BTN folds, Hero ??

Have been ITM (5 paid) for a few hands now. Villain is 28/12/1 over 98 hands, went to SD 40%, won at SD 75%, has been a bit passive. Came to the FT with 10K and added on with quad 9s and a few junk hands in the BB that were checked down.

BB is 15/12/2 over 121 hands. Shown down a few suited connector hands that hit but nothing else remarkable.

 

[cjatud2012]

SNGWiz says that it's a fold for most situations... Wouldn't be able to tell you why though, maybe someone else could explain.

 

[WiZZiM]

I've found that situations like this 4 handed work out to be very similar to a 9 man bubble spot. The only differance being we don't gain as much from getting it in. So we don't gain very much from double up here, apart from the obvious future hand concerns.

So with a guy who has a stack that is much less than us, we are one of the most risk averse players at the table. Add to that we probably don't have a lot of fold equity it should be pretty clear that this is a fold.

You wouldn't re-steal on the bubble of a 9 man tournament, would you?

 

[ManicLombax]

cj you did put in the payout structure for the 27 man SnG into SnG Wiz? Intuitively seems like re-stealing might be ok if you think you have fold equity. Have to imagine CO is raising pretty wide here, even though he has the other big stack to act behind him.

I guess ICM-wise, though, you'd much rather tangle with the small stack than try to double up through a big stack, particularly since the money jumps start getting big once you get past 4th place.

Edit: I guess you might not have a whole lot of FE here, now that I add it up. CO will be getting something like 1.9:1 on a call if you ship it, so he's probably got the right odds to call unless he puts you on some uber-nitty reshove range. Plus he's still in pretty good shape even if you win.

 

[cjatud2012]

^^ yeah I adjusted the structure, but wouldn't have been surprised if I had forgotten, hah.

So WiZZ, what you're saying is we wouldn't gain a ton of equity by re-stealing and he folded, and if he called the ICM tax is pretty great, i.e. we wouldn't really double our equity. Is that right?

 

[the lab man]

I do need help in these, and please help a layman... but first thing comes to my mind is push.

Big stack raising in position against vulnerable stack.

Do we not have a decent hand to push instead of waiting?

I realize bubble spot....help

 

[Bwammo]

So with a guy who has a stack that is much less than us, we are one of the most risk averse players at the table. Add to that we probably don't have a lot of fold equity it should be pretty clear that this is a fold.

+1

It's VERY important to realize he raised to 1500 and not 1k and not 1200. Who would possibly raise to nearly 4x? People with hands they are trying to protect. What are people trying to protect? Hands they are happy about but are afraid to see flops. What type of hand falls into that category? Low-mid pocket pairs and bigger type cards. Are any of these hands going to fold to us given he has a huge stack? Most likely not.

 

[liguolong]

I thinnk this is a fold situation:
1 KQ unsuited is very likely to be worse than CO's cards. I would guess him having AK, AQ or a high pair.
2
If you call and lose at the end you will be very likely to end 4th place while if you just fold, it would be hard for big blind player, and you will have very big chance to end in top 3. Therefore, I don't see why you want to take risk in this hand.