$11 NLHE STT: AQs in BB

[thunder1276]

full tilt poker $10 + $1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 7 players - View hand 1253687
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: t695 6.95 BBs
CO: t1770 17.70 BBs
BTN: t2575 25.75 BBs
SB: t2645 26.45 BBs
Hero (BB): t2590 25.90 BBs
UTG: t1320 13.20 BBs
UTG+1: t1905 19.05 BBs

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is BB with Q ♥ A ♥
2 folds, MP raises to t695 all in, 1 fold, BTN calls t695, 1 fold, Hero?

The button was rather loose passive and limping often preflop. he had tightened up a little bit in the last 10 hands or so but i figured he might call here pretty light. Do you think that a shove is a good play here or just a call and try to see a river for free.

 

[t1riel]

Honestly, I might fold here. You're up against a big stack and chances are, you're AQ is not the best hand right now. Plus, you don't want to triple up the shortstacked player either. You mentioned the button tightened up a bit the last 10 hands so I would tread lightly.

 

[cjatud2012]

I like a push, BTN certainly doesn't have a monster here. If he's been limpy before, either you're ahead of his range, or he's gonna fold and you're gonna get into a heads-up pot with dead money (yay!).

If the BTN folds and we lose, then we fall to ~t1900 - certainly not a good result, but not a disaster by any means, especially at t50/t100. A ~t2500 stack (what we have after we post) isn't going to help us that much more than ~t1900. If the BTN folds and we win, then we just risked ~t600 to win ~t1500, which is awesome, and our stack goes up to ~t4000, which is a lot more useful than the t2500 stack, especially with the two players to our left being a lot shorter than us. If BTN calls and we lose, we're obviously out, but if he calls and win we're up to t6000, and we're looking awesome, having almost triple the chips of everybody at the table except for one guy, who is the guy you have position on (sweet!).

The risk-reward here is pretty good, even if the BTN calls. In that situation, we're risking t2500 to win t6000 essentially, which is 2.4:1 odds I believe. Against some possible ranges (top 25% from the short stack, top 10% from the BTN - both according to the SC rankings), here's how we look:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.656% 25.36% 01.29% 15681139686 799271719.17 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, QTs+, A2o+, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 37.286% 34.54% 02.75% 21353887996 1697927398.17 { 55+, A8s+, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 36.058% 32.81% 03.25% 20283180794 2009710068.67 { AQs }

So we have 36% equity to win the hand, and we only need 29% equity according to the pot-odds, and even with ICM tax that still looks like a pretty good spot to me.

Also, I'm not really worried about giving more chips to the short stack, we are still seven handed here, I'd feel different about it if we were on the bubble.

sorry for the tl;dr

 

[aaron_jd]

At 50/100 blinds, I'd probably call here. You mentioned the button had been playing rather loose-passive often during the tourney. The fact that he tightened up for only 10 hands (a little over a round) doesn't scare me off.

 

[loopmeister]

Is BTN one of those players who'll basically check down to the river to try and knock a player out?

If so,

I'd rather see a flop knowing you're not going to be penalised by being OOP bc BTN will play passively. If he bets, he'll have 2 pair or better and you can safely fold. You can probably see a river and check it down to see if your Ace high is good, or bet for value if you hit.

If you shove and BTN calls with 97s or smt random, you're giving a lot of equity to the rest of the table by clashing with another big stack.

If you think BTN might bet the flop with less than top pair or small pockets, then I favour the fold, but the shove is not terrible imho.

 

[stevolfc1234]

I agree with cjatud, I think a shove is good here. You definitely don't want to be playing post-flop with a guy who likes to see the board, especially with a hand with the potential to totally miss. If he has been limping pre flop a lot, unless you're very unlucky, he should be mucking if you shove and have him covered - if he limps a lot then you'd expect he'd raise with a monster so i'd really back AQs to be good here. And obviously if the raiser has you beat then you're losing a lot less than calling and possibly being outdrawn on

 

[Gunner57]

Is this a STT or MTT? I will go assuming that it is STT.

This is a tough situation... You can push here but I dont like it. And I think there is an argument for a fold... but I dont like it. You could call to see if you can knock out Short Stack with villian but they you are risking a lot to knock one guy out.

I think on this you should decide how you feel about the table and the players and choose:

If the players at the table are weak and you fold here you still have a good sized stack (and position) and can pick a better spot later. You only have your BB invested so no pot commitment issues.

On the other hand if you think that the competition is tough at this table you may want to make the move all in and have a chance of knocking 2 people out, making you Very Big Stack, and helping you have an edge over the tougher competition.

That would be my two cents. All in is EV+ but you dont have a made hand yet and betting 695 chips or all in was not what you really wanted to have happen. So in the end I think the best thing to do is to look at the tourney as a whole and decide what is the best decision.

 

[xvxjason777]

I might fold here, this one is tough.

 

[WiZZiM]

We're almost always ahead of buttons calling range, there's a huge pot out there, looks like an easy jam to me.

 

[badaboombaa]

Fold would be god-awful, pretty easy shove imo but I can see arguments for calling.

 

[Rldetheflop]

We're almost always ahead of buttons calling range, there's a huge pot out there, looks like an easy jam to me.

thats what I was thinking!!