$11 NLHE MTT: SCOOP 82-L | AJo in BTN

[mariussica88]

BB stats after 50 hands: VPIP 22 PFR 10 Limp 10 Post Flop AGG 0 Flop C-bet 100 Turn C-bet 0 StealPct 40

This is a progressive bounty tournament.

1. Is calling pre-flop ok? It's shoving a possibility?
2. Is calling the flop bad from me?
3. Can I call the turn?


pokerstars - 250/500 Ante 60 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP+1: 21,760 (43.5 bb)
CO: 8,052 (16.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): 57,342 (114.7 bb)
SB: 59,316 (118.6 bb)
BB: 22,703 (45.4 bb)
UTG: 30,540 (61.1 bb)
UTG+1: 19,580 (39.2 bb)
MP: 30,707 (61.4 bb)

8 players post ante of 60, SB posts 250, BB posts 500

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,230) Hero has
5 folds, Hero raises to 1,150, fold, BB raises to 4,180, Hero calls 3,030

Flop: (9,090, 2 players)
BB bets 4,750, Hero calls 4,750

Turn: (18,590, 2 players)
BB bets 13,713 and is all-in, Hero folds

Results: 18,590 pot (0 rake)
Final Board:

BB wins 18,590

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I think, AJo can sometimes be 4-bet jammed in a late position battle like this. However this is not the opponent, I want to do that against. You have 50 hands on him, and that is enough to conclude, that he has a fairly low PFR and a big gap between VPIP and PFR. So he seem to do a lot of calling preflop, and here he could have called getting a very good price and closing action. Yet he chose to 3-bet out of position against a bigger stack, and that is definitely indicating a strong range. In fact I would not even hate to see a fold here, but calling is more standard and certainly better than jamming.

Flop
I am not keen on calling here, because if you make your straight, there is a 1-liner on the board, so its difficult to get paid by a worse hand. Your implied odds are not good, and the SPR is only around 2, so for me this is a jam or fold spot. And its actually pretty close. You likely only have around 33% equity against his range, so for a jam to be profitable, he need to sometimes be bet-folding a hand like AK or AQ.

Turn
Now you likely only have something like 18% equity against his range, so you are not getting anywhere near good enough odds to call it off.

 

[IADaveMark]

While I'm not with fundiver199 on the possible 4-bet jam on this, I do agree that this is not the spot. Even with only 50 hands of data on Villain, a VPIP of 22 and a PFR of 10 (?!?) is very small. Definitely a calling station most of the time. Top 10% of hands is 55+, A8s+, ATo+. That matchup alone has you down 58/42 preflop.

Anyway, the interesting part here is the flop. You've got the high end of an OOSD. diver was wrong in saying you have about 33% equity. Using that top 10% range I listed above, you are actually more like 38% at this point. You have 8 outs for the OOSD—assuming that V wouldn't hit a larger straight (e.g. if V has JK and the Q comes). If V hit the board at all, you might be able to add in the 6 outs for your overcards. However, that's risky to use because if V has AT (for example), hitting your A gives him 2 pair. (Same for V having JT and you hitting your J). Your overcards are square in his range so that's dangerous to count on.

The 8 outs gives you about 34% and using those risky overcard outs (14 total) would have been over 50%... but we talked about how we can't consider all of those as good.

So between the fact that you might be hosed already and, even on a draw, V might call you just because he is getting short anyway (which kind of drains away your fold equity), a shove doesn't look good here. So back to the idea of calling...

Again, you might be behind already, you might get a card that makes you think you are ahead and you are not (e.g. that 2 pair example), etc. This is more dangerous than it looks like. And what would V 3-bet with and lead the flop with 1/2 pot with? With a PFR score of 10%? My guess is you are already behind with an overpair in the neighborhood of QQ+. Maybe JJ? (QQ has blockers on the high end of your straight and JJ is worse because it turns your straights into chops.) He could also have AK here as well which turns all your A draws into losers anyway.

That said, given the comparative stack depths, I might peel 1 card off and prepare to eject on the turn. But you're not really getting the odds on those. (Remember that the percent chances to hit I listed above were going all the way to the river, not just the turn. So cut those in half on whether you are going to hit them.)

 

[fundiver199]

Using that top 10% range I listed above, you are actually more like 38% at this point.

Yes if his 3-betting range is as wide as his opening range, and if he is C-betting 100% of the time. Both these assumptions are very optimistic in my opinion. I think, we need to give him a range after 3-betting and C-betting of mostly overpairs, maybe top set, maybe some AK/AQ type stuff. And against that we are more like 33%, but maybe we can get AK/AQ to fold by jamming.

I dont hate a fold on the flop, but if he is never bluffing, maybe we should just folded preflop to be honest. AJ is not doing well against a 3-betting range, which might realistically only be AK and JJ+ or something of that nature from this kind of player in this situation. Defending "correctly" against 3-bets assume, that people have bluffs in their range, and a player like this most likely dont. So we are exploiting him by overfolding to his 3-bets, not the other way around.

 

[IADaveMark]

Yes if his 3-betting range is as wide as his opening range, and if he is C-betting 100% of the time. Both these assumptions are very optimistic in my opinion. ...

Yeah, I touched on that later when I said we were likely up against your standard high-end 3-bet pre stuff... AA, KK, AK, maybe QQ... It's not a great situation.