$11 NL HE MTT: An attractive draw. What is the probability of a fold?

[Vallet]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

Currency

$

The pot on the flop is half of our stack. One of the opponents must have hit the board.
Do we always fold against an all - in bet ? Even if there are not several players against us, but one for example?
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer?hand=7q2nOKxR

 

[300HPGOD]

Its not really that attractive of a draw to me. Its a gutter ball and the more attractive part is the two overcards as when BB donks all in here I would put them on Qx a lot (especially with a rainbow board) and its probably not a Qx that is two pair. From there we can assess the math and with the pot odds (assuming my math is right) we are getting 1.56 to 1 and need 39% equity. We are at 37% ish against Qx one pair that is not QJ. If they have QJ its 32% and KQ would make us 28%. KQ and QJ are a higher probability than other one pair Qx due the pot was raised pre even though BB was getting good odds to call. Even with those odds I think they still fold out Q2-Q7 especially offsuit sitting on only 20 BBs. Therefore, in the long run this is a fold as you are not getting the 39% needed and the more likely Qx have you less than that. Even if villain has 10x its similar as J10 would be 32% and 108 would be 37% ish.

Now there is some chance the last remaining villain calls as they wound up here and have another Qx that is not KQ, AQ or QJ and helps you out. Your equity would not change that much but the pot odds would. However, I dont think we should be counting on that and its best to fold.

 

[fundiver199]

You have 4 outs to a gutshot and 6 outs to top pair, but you only want to count the top pair outs as partial outs, since they wont always give you the best hand. In this case someone had KQ, so a K would not have given you the winning hand. Other times someone might have flopped a set or two pair, in which case you are only drawing to a straight. To be fair BB could also sometimes be doing this with a draw like KJ or J9, in which case you actually have the best hand. But all in all this is still a fold facing a 2 X the pot jam and even more so with players left to act behind you.

 

[fundiver199]

KQ and QJ are a higher probability than other one pair Qx due the pot was raised pre even though BB was getting good odds to call.

I would also include AQ in his range, and against that hand we also only have 7 outs and 28% equity. At the end of the day its annoying to be pushed off our equity already on the flop by a donkey like this. But we need to remember, that he will get his ass handed to him, whenever we or someone else has a better made hand. Which is exactly, what happened, with BTN having KQ and making the call.

 

[fundiver199]

Its probably obvious to most, but to dig a bit deeper into the hand from BBs perspective, there is no compelling reason for him to have a leading range on the flop to begin with. And if he is going to lead, then jamming for almost 2X the pot is waaaaaay to large. When he play like this, he pretty much force his opponents to always have a better hand, when they continue. And turning Q9 into a bluff makes absolutely no sense. The only thing, he is possibly achieving, is to sometimes get an opponent to fold out specifically QJ. Or to fold out a hand like AK, which is behind but has decent equity. And as we saw demonstrated, KQ or better snap call, and anything worse than Q9 usually snap fold. So he is literally inviting 3 opponents to play close to 100% perfect, when he makes this silly move.

 

[ADRI7HO]

Against several opponents, I only flop with a gutshot straight draw card, which has the maximum advantage of having two over cards, I have a smooth fold, because the player who went all-in was almost certain to have something like that (Q,x) , possibly an open straight draw, which can still happen with him at this time.

 

[eetenor]

Its probably obvious to most, but to dig a bit deeper into the hand from BBs perspective, there is no compelling reason for him to have a leading range on the flop to begin with. And if he is going to lead, then jamming for almost 2X the pot is waaaaaay to large. When he play like this, he pretty much force his opponents to always have a better hand, when they continue. And turning Q9 into a bluff makes absolutely no sense. The only thing, he is possibly achieving, is to sometimes get an opponent to fold out specifically QJ. Or to fold out a hand like AK, which is behind but has decent equity. And as we saw demonstrated, KQ or better snap call, and anything worse than Q9 usually snap fold. So he is literally inviting 3 opponents to play close to 100% perfect, when he makes this silly move.

This is a great point for any players who find themselves in the BB position in a similar spot- We want our V to make mistakes we size our bets for them to make those mistakes not to let them off easy with a simple decision.

The BB is also shoving into the UTG short stack open which can have better QX and over pairs in it so the BB does not get to use any skills to get away from the hand if the UTG or BTN wants to play for stacks on the flop--- we are all here to learn skills that we can apply in game- open shoving negates those skills

 

[almir nicolau]

In my opinion, he played the hand very well, standard the reease 20bb then there's nothing to do easy fold and follow the plan, I wouldn't bet this board too many ways and would pay a low size to reevaluate the turn.
Below are some examples of action!

exemple two players allin in rease AKo

 

[Vallet]

This is a very frequent case when the board is lower than our cards, but gives us hope for chances. I didn't immediately make the decision to fold. My outs fit into the hands of the opponents. For example, QJ which blocks the straight. The player on the button makes the decision last, it also confused me. Quite tight tables in this tournament. Often, a bluff could only be expected from huge stacks. I will try to look for such hands in the next hands.