$109 NLHE Deep Stacked: Royal Flush Draw against a shove

[MainEventOrBust]

$109 NL HE Deep Stacked: Royal Flush Draw against a shove

Okay, so here is the situation—I’m sitting in top 5 for chips in middle of this tournament, and trying not to get too involved, but find myself with a marginal hand and figure I’ll take a stab at the blinds with a standard 2.4x raise.

My raise ends up buying the button, and getting called by both blinds, but figure if any Broadway cards come out, I should be able to pick up the pot with a C-Bet. What I didn’t count on was a Royal Flush Draw…and a decision for a big chunk of my stack, laying me almost 2-1 odds for a call.

I know that I'm +EV on the hand with all the chips in the pot, and I'm too dumb to figure out ICM with 70+ players left, and about 27 payoff spots. What should I have done?

bodog Hand #1628536737: $9,000 Guaranteed Tournament $100+9 Buy In
2009/06/08
Seat 1: NO HATIN (1,468)
Seat 2: Joe McGuire (5,144)
Seat 3: BarLT (7,891)
Seat 4: DARKHELMET13 (4,350)
Seat 5: repose71 (7,398)
Seat 6: whatever877 (4,583)
Seat 7: MadSlotSkillz (8,330)
Seat 8: MissMillies (4,684)
Seat 9: vinnyb9 (4,070)
Joe McGuire posts the small blind of 50
BarLT posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MadSlotSkillz [A♦ T♦]
DARKHELMET13 Folds
repose71 Calls $100.00
whatever877 Folds
MadSlotSkillz Raises to $240.00
MissMillies Folds
vinnyb9 Folds
NO HATIN Folds
Joe McGuire Calls $190.00
BarLT Calls $140.00
repose71 Folds $100.00
*** FLOP *** [7♣ Q♦ K♦]
Joe McGuire Checks
BarLT Checks
MadSlotSkillz Bet $565.00
Joe McGuire Raises All-in to $4,904.00
BarLT Folds
MadSlotSkillz ? ? ?

 

[Falloooooon]

First: Did you even know someone limped UTG+1? So you weren't really taking a stab at the blinds, and I'm shocked that guy folded for 140 more. But even with him in the pot, it's not a bad raise really, even though ideally I think you raise more with a limper in and are happy to take the pot without a flop holding AdTd.

Second: The only thing you're significantly behind to is a set. It's a coin flip against top two even. And you're big stacked enough that losing wouldn't cripple you at all.

Play to win and call.

 

[Wolfpack43ACC]

First: Did you even know someone limped UTG+1? So you weren't really taking a stab at the blinds, and I'm shocked that guy folded for 140 more. But even with him in the pot, it's not a bad raise really, even though ideally I think you raise more with a limper in and are happy to take the pot without a flop holding AdTd.

Second: The only thing you're significantly behind to is a set. It's a coin flip against top two even. And you're big stacked enough that losing wouldn't cripple you at all.

Play to win and call.

My first and only thought. Do you play MTT's to cash or MTT's to final table and make some real $$$? Play for the win that is the right mind set. More often the not the ones who play for the win end up making the most money long term and take down the big cashes. Where the guys who are afraid to play a hand because they want to cash end up busting out on the bubble or just after it.

 

[PattyR]

i agree that you should call.....

even if he has a set....you gotta figure you got a lot of outs..

you have eleven outs maybe a few less depending on who was dealt a J or any diamond....but say you have eleven outs to catch any J or any diamond on the turn OR the river......call call call

 

[zachvac]

I'm not sure of the exact math here but I think it's a call. Biggest thing is that you don't exactly have a huge stack by any means, still < 100 BBs and if you lose will still not be in too bad shape still a bit over 30 BBs. Add onto that the fact that if you win the flip (which is most likely what it is, he could have a smaller draw or set which moves it either way a bit but still on average a flip) you have a very big stack and are in position to almost certainly go deep and give youself a chance at a win. If this were a hand against someone else who had you covered or had a stack size closer to you I think it'd be a much bigger question and might turn into a fold. But the fact that you'll still have a healthy stack if you lose and if you win all the chips will help you (like if you were at 500 BBs an increase to 550 BBs isn't a huge jump. The jump from 80 to 110 however is going to help you a lot) I believe makes this a call.

 

[MainEventOrBust]

Okay, first off, thanks to all who took time to answer.

I made an error when I said I was getting 2-1. The pot was 6289 and a call cost 4339 for approximately 3-2, and it was late when I wrote this. That said, I'm still better than the 40% I need to win the hand against his range.

Someone mentioned that I should have raised more with a limper to get him out, but I really wasn't concerned with running anyone out, I was trying to build a pot, so I could take it down with a continuation bet on the flop. As it turned out he folded for only 140 more (weird huh?)

Here is the rest of the HH, (as if anyone would post this if they got there on the end):
MadSlotSkillz Call $4,339.00
*** TURN *** [7♣ Q♦ K♦ ] 9♥
*** RIVER *** [7♣ Q♦ K♦ 9♥ ] 2♣
Joe McGuire shows two pair, Kings and Queens
MadSlotSkillz shows no pair, Ace high
Joe McGuire wins the pot (10,628) with two pair, Kings and Queens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10,628 | Rake 0
Board: [7♣ Q♦ K♦ 9♥ 2♣]
Seat 1: NO HATIN (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Joe McGuire (small blind) showed [K♠ Q♠] and won (4,030) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 3: BarLT (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: DARKHELMET13 folded before the Flop
Seat 5: repose71 folded before the Flop
Seat 6: whatever877 folded before the Flop
Seat 7: MadSlotSkillz showed [A♦ T♦] and lost with no pair, Ace high
Seat 8: MissMillies folded before the Flop
Seat 9: vinnyb9 folded before the Flop

I felt I got it in with correct odds, but wondered if I was somehow overlooking the 'Metagame' aspects of tournament play. I was starting to feel like even though I was going to connect enough times to justify the play, leaving myself with 3,186 chips 56% of the time when average stack is about 5,300 somehow left me wondering if someone with more Deepstack MTT experience might have done it differently.

 

[cardplayer52]

is it bad to check this flop here? whats the worst that could happen he checks behind? if he bets then you can deside if your getting the right odds or not. if not then you can be the one to shove. or if he shoves you maybe able to get way cheaply(i'm probably not able). not saying its the right line just a thought.

 

[MainEventOrBust]

is it bad to check this flop here? whats the worst that could happen he checks behind? if he bets then you can deside if your getting the right odds or not. if not then you can be the one to shove. or if he shoves you maybe able to get way cheaply(i'm probably not able). not saying its the right line just a thought.

He was actually first to act. His all-in was a check raise.

I contemplated checking behind, but preferred to take the pot right there with a continuation bet. The way the table had been playing up until that point, I was expecting to get credit for AK and see a couple of folds from the blinds. I also figured that if I check the flop, I lose my ability to check the turn if called on the flop, since it would induce a bet from one of the blinds figuring I had a holding like TT and was scared of the flop. My plan was actually to check the turn if called here, so I could get two shots at improving if I didn't take it down right here.

 

[cardplayer52]

He was actually first to act. His all-in was a check raise.

I contemplated checking behind, but preferred to take the pot right there with a continuation bet. The way the table had been playing up until that point, I was expecting to get credit for AK and see a couple of folds from the blinds. I also figured that if I check the flop, I lose my ability to check the turn if called on the flop, since it would induce a bet from one of the blinds figuring I had a holding like TT and was scared of the flop. My plan was actually to check the turn if called here, so I could get two shots at improving if I didn't take it down right here.

just reread the hand. IDK id check behind either. also who's really going to try to check/raise here on such a scary board. after there all in i'm most likely snap calling here. it's too likely there got a flush draw too.

 

[Pokerdude420]

Outs

You have 4 jacks and 10 diamonds seeing as they prob have qq or kk...Maybe AK at best for you.. 14 outs twice i would call the all in