$100 live freezout all-in call ?

[tenbob]

Very first hand, toughie, but here goes. Starting stack 5000 chips blinds 50/100. 10 Players, game is known as aggressive, i know just one player.

Im on the button with



The full table limps so i dont see much point in raising, unless i want to risk my full stack at this stage of the game. Family pot of 1000 chips.

Flop



Table checks into me on the button, so i lead off with a 300 bet, now this is hoping for callers rather than folders.

UTG- ALL-IN
Seat 2 - ALL-IN
Seat 6- ALL-IN
Tenbob ?

Now realising that this is the first hand of a live game and im more that likely up against at least 2 pair, or a smaller flush draw, not that much of my stack committed, i could more than likely outplay these guys in the duration of the game. Ok i have a massive draw, but also a long rail for the next game if im out. Taking into consideration all these factors, whats you play ?

 

[Osmann]

In a cash game it's an easy call, but I think you should fold here. There are definately some "real" hands among them, but an ace high flush draw is also a real possibility. And if you are up against a set and a higher flush draw you are in bad shape and on your way home. You could also be in good shape, but I don't think you will find a situation where you are more than 50% sure to win. Lay it down and stay alive... As you said, you can probably outplay them later, and you still have a normal size stack.

 

[holduplaya]

This is why I refuse to play the first hand in a tourney or even a SnG with 10 players at my table.

Being the idiot I'am and depending on the amount of money I paid to get in versus the money I have in my pocket and if any of the players are known to me. I would force myself to call.

The word freezeout than sets in my mind probably after I made the call and kick myself in the a$$.

After reading and studying poker tournaments I would fold and outplay them later on in the tourney. It is very essental to fold your set and make some serious notes after the river on all the players in the pot no matter if they are put out or still in the game.

I say the mistake was when you made the bet only because it was the first hand of the tourney and after the turn everything would be different.

 

[ChuckTs]

I say the mistake was when you made the bet only because it was the first hand of the tourney and after the turn everything would be different.

i think this was a perfectly fine bet
of course you're gonna bet an open-ended straight flush draw, but the all in call is the iffy part...i think folding and living to fight another day is the proper play. For sure with that many all ins you're bound to be against at least two pair or a set or even a bigger flush draw

 

[holduplaya]

Agree with you. What I was trying to say was letting them bet into you is a better option why?

1. it is the first hand and there are 2 cards left to come.

2. what hand do you have right now? high card king. (you don't have a hand yet) but you do have a valid reason to call a bet or a few bets just not all the bets, just yet.

3. you wanna see how these guys/girls play.

4. the best thing is when a guy moves all-in on you when you have the nuts.

I wouldn't of considered making a bet on the first hand because of the majority of the previous tourneys I played in (all the all-ins that come after I bet prior to the river during the very first hand) I would expect someone to go all-in after I make a bet just because of previous tournies which lead me to forfeit the chips I put into the pot because if someone goes all-in after me I would fold.

on the first hand of a tourney I believe betting encourages others to raise me to a point where I feel I'm in quicksand and fold. why? because everyone thinks everyone else does not have the nuts cause none are possible yet and therefore everyone else will fold.

am I close?

 

[JAMILE1]

This is why I refuse to play the first hand in a tourney or even a SnG with 10 players at my table.

Being the idiot I'am and depending on the amount of money I paid to get in versus the money I have in my pocket and if any of the players are known to me. I would force myself to call

Only because its the first hand I'd say fold, but what h-up says "force myself" it would be really hard to let that go but first hand I wanna have at least a fighting chance to make some cash, and I think a check is good here see the turn and go from there, only because we know that they went in I think if you did check and hit on the turn you'd probably get the same action after turn, you could out play them in the long run, fold, but on the other hand I wish you called and hit the Royal. nice post +

 

[tenbob]

Leading off with the under-bet was a effort to see where i was in the hand, and an effort to get myself a cheap turn card. Well i found out where i stood. Also the likely-hood of not having as many outs as it first appears is high.

While i know you calculate outs and odds based on unseen cards, its also very easy on hands like this to realise that some of your outs are held by one or more of the other players at the table. Based on the game i could have seen AJ calling, another straight draw and possibily a flush draw.

There is a huge difference in calling and folding here, ok im getting massive pot odds, but at what cost ?

 

[joosebuck]

I think you've got to be ahead of anything that would limp in.

My guess is seat 2 is J10 and seat 6 is J5. Even if UTG limped with QQ/KK/AA, you're still 46%-54% to win.

You're getting more than 4:1 on your money with almost 2:1 odds to win. I think this is a an easy but difficult call

 

[joosebuck]

worst case scenario, someone snuck in with JJ and hit top set... you are still 38% to win.

 

[Fish]

I agree completely with joosebuck.
This is a call.

Look at it this way:
You have a pretty good chance of getting a nice big stack to let you push people around for the remainder of the tourney,
OR
you get first choice at seats in the sidegame.

 

[Styrofoam]

its a hard call...but you've got 15 outs! holy hell, and 2 of them give you the absolute nuts. IMO you have to call this.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

This is one of those times when you say "Am I a pussy or what?".

Allin and sit back and smile. How else are you ever going to get the first royal flush in your life?

 

[t1riel]

its a hard call...but you've got 15 outs! holy hell, and 2 of them give you the absolute nuts. IMO you have to call this.

I agree, with that many outs and nut hand possiblities, it's hard not to call. Since it's the first hand, there are reasons not to call. Yuu have King high right now and chances are at least one player has a Jack. A player could have A-x heart suited (it's a possiblity since all limped in). If that's true, your outs go down. Call me a pussy, but I would fold. Too many players are in the pot and on a personal note, I've been burned with K,Q suited so many times.

 

[titans4ever]

I don't see all of your outs as good. I am certain that one of the callers has the Ax of hearts. That takes away 1 of the two "nut cards" and you are now drawing to the 9h for the nut hand. The Ax also takes all of your hearts out for it.

You hit a K or a Q to get top pair you have to worry about K9 or Q9, limping hands for lots of people, now hit their straight. I could see Q9 pushing here with open ended here. AK or AQ probably would have raised preflop so the nut straight is out there for you.

I think with this hand you are hoping for an A or 9 to complete your straight. I think all other outs here can be lost to another hand. So I see you as drawing on a 1/3 chance. You have the pot odds to make the call but I don't like you hand odds. I don't like to call when I only have a 1/3 of catching my hand. If you were big stacked and knew you would survive to see the next hand, I would think about doing it. I just can't for my tournament life.

 

[colin_147]

Wow, thats a toughie TB. I agree this hand could be played so many different ways depending on the situation you find yourself in.

I would definitely bet out with 15 outs to the nut straight/2nd nut flush draw, and I would be praying for callers with me being a good fav v almost any other hand. The 3 all ins are pretty scary but looking down at 15,000 chips!!

With the players only limping preflop you are most probably facing something like a hit set (55), Ah 8h and possibly Q9os.

The problem with a hand like this is that even if the Heart falls you are drwaing dead and if the board pairs you are drawing dead (unless you hit the dream straight flush/royal flush)

I would grit my teeth and probably fold knowing you could outplay these guys at a later stage. This is a huge draw, as big as they come and is so hard to lay down.

I reckon Ah rag H hits and you made a good fold

 

[Alon Ipser]

Did the casino have a royal flush jackpot? I would have called either way. 4 times the money on the first hand can set you up pretty nicely for the rest of the tourny.

 

[tenbob]

I havnt posted the results of this hand yet for a good reason. The discussion about dead outs is the main reason I posted this. Unless I have some reads on my opposition or at the very least seen some hands that they voluntary entered pots on then I ALWAYS assume that they are solid players.

So what do we have here, 3 players check the flop that are prepared to go ALL_IN with their hand. So UTG has a made hand, he was the one that check-raised after all, and TWO calls behind him. So we can assume that at the mininum that the nut flush draw is out there, Id also have put UTG on a protection bet with a set or at the very least 2 pair. And lets leave the third caller as a wild card playing top pair.

So we can assume from the information that we gained from being in late postion that our overs outs are dead, the possibility of the board pairing leaves us drawing to one out, and a large likelyhood of our flush outs being tainted.

Now the question was asked in another thread as to why this is a fold, if i had raised pre-flop and ran off the marginal hands then fine id know better where i stood, but i didnt and the fact remains is that 3 players are currently all-in and im drawing to a lot less outs than it first appears.

Lets run this "more likely" serario through the hand calculator

[Ah] [2h] - 20.6 % - The Ace rag suited player
[Ac] [Jc] - 3.1 % - The donk that calles with TPTK
[5h] [5c] - 56.2 %
[Kh] [Qh] - 20.1% - NOT SO GOOD

So lets try something totally different again, lets not make any overly strong assumptions about the quality of my opponents hands, this time lets give UTG 2 pair, leave in the donk with TPTK and give our flush chaser a non nut flush draw, (This is BEST CASE SENARIO )

[Kh] [Qh] - 51.3%
[Jc] [10c] - 41.4 %
[7h] [5h] - 5.1%
[Ac] [Jd] - 3.1%

So at best and hoping that we have a table full of donks we are going all-in on a coinflip, at worst we are a 5/1 dog in the hand.

When you have table position you need to use it to the best of your ability in order to gain information on what sort of strength is out there, if we have no set, no straight draw, and a brutal flush draw we are a coinflip, but we have 3 players who are convinced that they can win this hand, and are so convinced that they are committing all their chips to it.

Would you folks that said call still do it ?

 

[joosebuck]

gotta call lol.

 

[zinzan1000]

Thats a fold for me, titans4ever's post #14 sums it up nicely.
You said it was an aggressive table and you knew just one player there.
Was he one of the all-ins?
I would have to put UTG on 2pair or trips as his all-in looked to me like he didnt want a caller with a flush draw or straight draw in the pot.
As for the other 2 guys, one of them has to be a donk for sure.
Also, like you pointed out, the true number of outs i think would be much lower than you could expect in routine calculations.
To many players are calling this all-in for my liking and the only card i can see that is likely to still be in the deck that would guarentee you stacking up 20600 chips would be the 9 of hearts.
One out.
An ace or a nine that isnt a heart would of course help you but with 2 cards still to come that would be way to risky.
That would be another 8 outs but again with this flop and the ensueing mayhem that followed, i think the true number of outs would be less.
The risk factor is to high for me here and i would have to fold, as only the nine of hearts in my opinion would be the only card that would help me.

Great thread, and some superb responses to it.
I will hitting that reputation button a few times on this one.

zinzan1000 be lucky

 

[zinzan1000]

As an afterthought, what if UTG was bluffing.
Aggressive table, everybody paid to see a flop.
1000 chips in the middle on very first hand dealt.
Checked all around after the flop until you, the button bets 300.
With 5000 chips starting stacks and 1300 in the middle with nobody showing any interest, UTG may of decided he could increase his stack by 25% by going all-in and figured the bet would go uncontested.

Only to be found with his pants down around his ankles when he got 2 quick callers and a possible third.
I know this is the least likely thing that might happen but stranger things have happened at a poker table.

For some other unknown reason something keeps telling me that one of these players has the 9 and 8 of hearts, dont ask me why.

I still hope you folded your hand and watched 2 players walk away without you.

zinzan1000 be lucky

 

[Tammy]

I am in total agreement w/ t1riel and titans4ever. The possibilities are alluring, but you have to assume that many of your "outs" are taken. And tenbob, you're rundown through the odds-calculator just about takes all doubt away (the first scenario, that is; I don't think the second is really the case, at least not the [7h] [5h] ). FOLD and live to play another hand.

 

[tenbob]

Well unfortunately i called, I was in pretty bad shape when my opponents cards went on their back. In my rush at seeing my huge drawing hand, i simply forgot to take my opponents hands into account when i was counting my outs.

So recap, I was on the button with
[Kh] [Qh]

FLOP
[Jh] [10h] [5d]

UTG as Colin think sussed had bottom set [5c] [5h] (one of my heart outs dead)

Next was what i feared the most [Ah] [9h] - (All my flush outs and nut outs dead)

And believe it or not, now i was slightly stunned [Kd] [Qs]

The turn brought the [Ac] giving me an Mr Straight draw broadway. TBH i cant remember the river card, but it helped no-one.

So pure luck got me a nice split and a double up, but it was a horrible call. While its easy to make a quick judgement call, and out count at the table, and it would have been a big laydown, folding was the best option.

Good discussion folks. Remember try to put your opponents on a possible holding and adjust your outs as approiate. Not as important against one player but against multiple opponents its essential.

 

[titans4ever]

wow, that is tough odds

the set was 60% to win the hand
ah 9h had 23% to win the hand
you had a 17% to split

glad to see you pulled your split. Guess the pot odds were not there once you saw what they were holding. LOL Nice thread.

 

[Kj Sexton]

......at least not the <font color='red'>7♥</font> <font color='red'>5♥</font> ). FOLD and live to play another hand.

Never Fold THE HEINZ!
You may lose, but the poker gods will damn you forever for folding them.

And if they won't, well I'll send you bad card juju....

 

[Tammy]

Never Fold THE HEINZ!
You may lose, but the poker gods will damn you forever for folding them.

And if they won't, well I'll send you bad card juju....

NO! Please! O Merciful Lion! Not the ju-ju!! :adore: