$10 NLHE MTT: AJ os late in tourney with 11bb in mp2

[floppymcflopperson]

So there are 80 players left out of 1100 and I get aj os in mp2. Stack sizes ahead of me have me covered (the highest was 200000). I have 46000, Blinds up to 2000/4000. Table folds to me and I raise to 9250 (I now realize this is a shove or fold situation most likely and theres no real merit to raising with all these stacks ahead)...bad move prob. Im trying to fix my leaks. So the HJ shoves with 53000 and I prob should have called I think. In a previous hand he raised q9 os from the co and called a 5 bb shove on like a 15bb stack so I know this guy is loose, plus hes short stacked as well. Everyone folds...this is prob a big mistake and I could have had his range in bad shape but I wasnt willing to risk my tourney on a hand that Ive busted out with on many occasions while short. It seems like a hand thats right on the border of shove or fold in that spot. Idk I guess thats where I need improvement. To make a long story short, I shove qq utg+1 about 20 hands later with like 9bb and get called by.........63 suited and ak os. 63 won like 125,000 from that pot.......... I finished 53rd...ugh. Any thoughts or feedback is much appreciated

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

Though this is missing some info I would almost certainly shove, and probably quite wider than AJo here in this spot. 11 bb gives no options postflop, so a normal raise here should only be made if we intend to get our stack in anyway, and then we risk nasty things like a stop-and-go shove from the BB. This is an option for QQ+ maybe (though I prefer to keep these in our shoving range). 10-15 BB still gets you a lot of fold equity in this situation, and if it folds to you in fairly late position like this, you should go for them blinds!

And as played, if you trust your read you can easily call villain's shove here.

Don't be afraid to commit your stack to favorable situations, even if they're not as overwhelmingly favorable as QQ vs 63, as you've found out even then that's no guarantee for success. Also don't get hung up on those bad results, they are just part of the statistics. It's math - no reason to get emotional about it.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

yes, you should open shove AJo with 11bb in mid position.

as played, though you have made a misake and given the HJ a chance to outplay you, you have to sack up and call off. The fact that you've seen him call a jam with Q9 only makes that decision easier.

Think about it from a pot odds/hand ranges standpoint. 6000 blinds + 9250 raise plus 36,750 (the amount to put you all in). Pot contains 52,000 and it costs you 36,750 to call. your pot odds are 1.42:1 so you need odds of 41% for this to be a break even call.

Vs. a nit's range you can maybe find a fold here since a nit is not usually shoving worse aces, so you'll be crushed.

You could do a better job of estimating this particular villain's range...but I'll just take a stab and say he is 3bet jamming something like AT+, A8s+, 66+, KQ, KJs, 9Ts (11.5% range) vs, that range you're 45% to win.

if you give him a nittier range something like 66+ ATo+, ATs+ then you've got 40% equity.

if you give him a crazier range something like 33+, any ace, any 2 broadway and suited connectors and 1 gappers connectors down to 78s (29% range) you've got 58% equity.

 

[WiZZiM]

ya super easy jam preflop. And at this blind level you have likely left out the ante, which will make our effective stack much lower than 11bb

 

[27DaNutz]

I pretty much think you should be making the shove pre flop first with AJ... or myself i will be shoving on a much wider range... and as you said you know the villain is quite loose so i would be definitely snapping with AJ vs villain ... either way when you have around 11 BB's you after be shoving pre flop or folding

 

[hffjd2000]

Agree above, shoving would be natural.

Now, when villain shove and you know very well he is so loose, why didnt you call it?

 

[horp22]

Playing cautiously that deep in the tournament will help you advance a few positions, but if you are already in the money the cash between 80 and 53 isn't going to be much of a difference, Sometimes you just defeat yourself.

 

[floppymcflopperson]

After reading the replies I agree it was a bad lay down/failure to open shove. A scared fish move...especially since I had notes on villain but wanted to wait for a better spot. I obviously still have a lot of leaks I need to patch up. This is why I'm here though. I want to learn how to be better player. Thanks for the advice, I really do appreciate it! Lesson learned