$10 NLHE MTT: 10$ MMT late game: did I choose wrong time to bluff?

[Axmanace]

Tried forcing my opponent to fold a lesser hand (only had flush draw).

Went with three bullets - called every time with A8 high.

Did I misplay the bluff?
How could I have played it differently?

pokerstars, $9.10 + $0.90 - Hold'em No Limit - 500/1,000 (125 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 18,510 (19 bb)
UTG+1: 51,248 (51 bb)
MP: 47,848 (48 bb)
MP+1: 22,430 (22 bb)
CO (Hero): 23,406 (23 bb)
BU: 34,499 (34 bb)
SB: 4,070 (4 bb)
BB: 15,423 (15 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,500) Hero is CO with K♥ Q♣
2 players fold, MP raises to 2,000, 1 fold, Hero calls 2,000, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,000

Flop: (7,500) 7♣ T♠ 3♠ (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 4,750, BB calls 4,750, MP folds

Turn: (17,000) 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 8,500, BB calls 8,500

River: (34,000) 5♥ (2 players)
BB bets 48 (all-in), Hero calls 48

Total pot: 34,096

Showdown:
BB shows A♠ 8♠ (a pair of Fives - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 60%, Flop: 86%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

CO (Hero) shows K♥ Q♣ (a pair of Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 40%, Flop: 14%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

BB wins 34,096

 

[300HPGOD]

First thing to point out in this hand is the small stack in the SB. They should never be calling here and should be playing a bit looser than normal since they are small and have to go sometime. This affects you since there is a good chance that this hand will not play for 2 BBs going to the flop but almost 4 bbs (or more, which I'll get to) a lot since SB will jam over. Im not scared with KQ going against the SB's range but we should know here that when we call the open we at least somewhat often going to be playing this hand for 4 bbs and not 2. Also pay attention in these spots since if the SB were to jam here then they are raising more than the 1 BB that the opener raised and betting would re-open. The initial raiser would have you covered and already see that you overcalled so they could what would be a 4 bet at will here and think you will be capped since you did not 3 bet.

On the flop when both villains check I think we can either check or bet here but without a spade I like bluffing here as the initial bettor shows some weakness in checking behind there. I dont think they will fold Ax too often unless they fold to bets a lot (not sure how villain plays here obviously) but we can get them with a double barrel if the turn cooperates. I would bet here but it would be much smaller than you made it. I would go to 3000-3500 because again I dont think villain is folding Ax here and we would need to double barrel here. That does ask the question why not check and bluff the turn? Thats viable imo but it allows two other players to bluff first and you will take it down here at times especially if opening villain has small pocket pairs.

On the turn after BB calls our large flop bet I would be done with this hand. I would figure once they call that bet with their stack size that they are not folding the rest of the way. Therefore, I would check behind on the turn and hope a K or Q comes on the river that is preferably not a spade. Otherwise I would be done as I dont think villain will float too much here given their stack if they have nothing. Even ace high beats us so I would shut down and see if I could spike something. The turn bet you make is trying to fold out hands like the one the villain actually has but the problem is what I mentioned, with their stack, after they call the flop bet they are going with their hand. Villain should have just check jammed the flop imo.

 

[Axmanace]

First thing to point out in this hand is the small stack in the SB. They should never be calling here and should be playing a bit looser than normal since they are small and have to go sometime. This affects you since there is a good chance that this hand will not play for 2 BBs going to the flop but almost 4 bbs (or more, which I'll get to) a lot since SB will jam over. Im not scared with KQ going against the SB's range but we should know here that when we call the open we at least somewhat often going to be playing this hand for 4 bbs and not 2. Also pay attention in these spots since if the SB were to jam here then they are raising more than the 1 BB that the opener raised and betting would re-open. The initial raiser would have you covered and already see that you overcalled so they could what would be a 4 bet at will here and think you will be capped since you did not 3 bet.

On the flop when both villains check I think we can either check or bet here but without a spade I like bluffing here as the initial bettor shows some weakness in checking behind there. I dont think they will fold Ax too often unless they fold to bets a lot (not sure how villain plays here obviously) but we can get them with a double barrel if the turn cooperates. I would bet here but it would be much smaller than you made it. I would go to 3000-3500 because again I dont think villain is folding Ax here and we would need to double barrel here. That does ask the question why not check and bluff the turn? Thats viable imo but it allows two other players to bluff first and you will take it down here at times especially if opening villain has small pocket pairs.

On the turn after BB calls our large flop bet I would be done with this hand. I would figure once they call that bet with their stack size that they are not folding the rest of the way. Therefore, I would check behind on the turn and hope a K or Q comes on the river that is preferably not a spade. Otherwise I would be done as I dont think villain will float too much here given their stack if they have nothing. Even ace high beats us so I would shut down and see if I could spike something. The turn bet you make is trying to fold out hands like the one the villain actually has but the problem is what I mentioned, with their stack, after they call the flop bet they are going with their hand. Villain should have just check jammed the flop imo.

Should I have bet less with my turn bluff bet?

It effectively put him all in (which meant I couldn’t walk away from the hand).

I was trying to represent a hand that wins unless he hits the flush.

Thanks for your feedback.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
23BB is a very short stack size to be cold calling any hand other than maybe a "trap" with AA or KK, especially when both players in the blinds have rejam stacks. So for me this would be a 3-bet or fold spot, and with just a min-raise you can actually go for a small 3-bet and then fold to a 4-bet from the original raiser or anyone else, who have you covered. I might make that play with KQs, but KQo would just go in the muck, unless the original raiser was very loose.

Flop
I think, its ok to take a stab at it when checked to, even though you have nothing but overcards and a small potential to make a backdoor straight. When someone from the blinds have called, it is pretty marginal though, so it would also be totally fine to check behind and take a free card, especially because the effective stack is so short. If you are going to bet, there is no need to go so large. 30-40% pot is enough.

Turn
5c is not a good bluffing card, since it did not change the texture, and you also did not pick up any equity. So at this point I would clearly check back and take a free card. I think, you are just bluffing away your stack here, and I dont like the line at all.

 

[volkzord]

I think that will work better if you are 3-betting light. Its a good spot to do that. But in this scenario, I undestand your frustation, the vilain just call with the draw, and I dont see how the hand ends diferrently, even if you made a 3-bet. Thats a nice try, but in my opinion, you should've checked on the turn.

 

[300HPGOD]

Should I have bet less with my turn bluff bet?

It effectively put him all in (which meant I couldn’t walk away from the hand).

I was trying to represent a hand that wins unless he hits the flush.

Thanks for your feedback.

No, I dont think you should have bet the turn at all. I bring up the double barrel scenario only if it was the initial raiser who calls your flop bet. Once it is the villain from the blinds that calls with the stack they have you should give up. Sorry for the confusion but my double barrel scenario only was if opening villain called.

You mention you were trying to rep a made hand. The problem I have with that is I put in my original post (and still believe it) that once villain from the BB calls with the stack they have, they are never folding. Therefore it doesnt matter what you try and rep they are not letting go of whatever they have no matter how big or small it is. If they were going to fold in the hand it would have been on the flop. This hand plays differently if BB is deeper but where they are I dont see decent players calling that flop and then folding later on in the hand.

 

[Axmanace]

You mention you were trying to rep a made hand. The problem I have with that is I put in my original post (and still believe it) that once villain from the BB calls with the stack they have, they are never folding.

This is the insight I was looking for.

And I agree. If you know your opponent will call with A high - it doesn’t make sense to bluff.

 

[eetenor]

Tried forcing my opponent to fold a lesser hand (only had flush draw).

Went with three bullets - called every time with A8 high.

Did I misplay the bluff?
How could I have played it differently?

PokerStars, $9.10 + $0.90 - Hold'em No Limit - 500/1,000 (125 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 18,510 (19 bb)
UTG+1: 51,248 (51 bb)
MP: 47,848 (48 bb)
MP+1: 22,430 (22 bb)
CO (Hero): 23,406 (23 bb)
BU: 34,499 (34 bb)
SB: 4,070 (4 bb)
BB: 15,423 (15 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,500) Hero is CO with K♥ Q♣
2 players fold, MP raises to 2,000, 1 fold, Hero calls 2,000, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,000

Flop: (7,500) 7♣ T♠ 3♠ (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 4,750, BB calls 4,750, MP folds

Turn: (17,000) 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 8,500, BB calls 8,500

River: (34,000) 5♥ (2 players)
BB bets 48 (all-in), Hero calls 48

Total pot: 34,096

Showdown:
BB shows A♠ 8♠ (a pair of Fives - higher kicker)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 60%, Flop: 86%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

CO (Hero) shows K♥ Q♣ (a pair of Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 40%, Flop: 14%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

BB wins 34,096

Thank you for posting.

Your study point is preplanning bet structuring based on SPR preflop -flop -turn and river.

Part 1
Preflop we have an SPR of 3- If we need to bluff 3 streets we want to have a large SPR bet on the river. Do we have enough SPR to do that?

As played we bet 63% pot flop our SPR on turn is? .95 When that happens we can no longer expect villains to fold to 3 barrels as the 3rd barrel will be so small. At this point we have to decide to shove turn or shut down and try to hit a card -based on our SPR.

Part 2
that was our SPR but the effective SPR is based on the V that called and their SPR was .5 on the turn before we bet. When we bet turn their SPR is lowered to .34 at that SPR most draws call turn. It is never good to bluff when the V is likely to call 90% of the time.

Using SPR will help us recognize these spots. Preplanning our bet sizing based on SPR is a good skill to develop.

Hope this helps