$10 NLHE Deep Stacked: Live - Aces on a dry board

[No Brainer]

$10 NL HE Deep Stacked: Live - Aces on a dry board

Playing a live tourney tonight and about the 10th hand I get dealt aces in early position. I dont really have any reads on villian other than he is about 30 and has a t-shirt on that he had got from a larger touney in sydney so he must have played a bit before.

Stacks are all approx 20,000
Blinds 200/400

Hero is UTG+1 with
Villian is BB


Hero Raises to 1,200
BB calls


Pot - 2,600
Flop
BB checks, Hero bets 2,000, BB calls



Pot - 6,600
Turn
BB bets 1,600, Hero raises to 5,000, BB raises to 16,000 all in, Hero???

 

[c9h13no3]

Raise his turn bet larger, don't fold.

 

[jaded848]

Up against either kings, queens, a made set, or air. Don't think you can fold here though.

 

[luckforsome]

..cant fold...prob put him on ace ten...likely to be over pair to board....possilby flopped set, but being honest i dont think you can get away from this.

 

[No Brainer]

Thinking about this hand at the time I put him on Pocket tens through to pocket Aces, Sitting at home thinking about it after posting this I came up with a similar but different range for him.

Possible hands
2,2 - He probably wouldnt call the raise preflop
5,5 - He may call the raise preflop but would probably give up when I raised the flop
J,J - I think he would of had a harder time shoving these over the reraise on the turn
A,A - A possibility but I already have the other 2 so not much chance

Probable Hands
T,T - Would call the raise preflop and may slowplay the set on such a dry board
Q,Q - A decent overpair to the board and shoving over a re-raise may be trying to represent a set if he thought I had AA or KK
K,K - Same again.



Letting poker stove do its thing, I am 77% favorite against this range of probable hands and 64% favorite against the Porbable + Possible hands listed here so I think a call is the right move. Anyone disagree with these ranges that I have put him on?

 

[Evil Glue Maker]

Seems to me me you have a great read on said Villan
I would have to make him pay so much to see next card
KK, QQ and with that board JJ will play themselves against ur aces
If Villan has the set he has just got lucky
U did not play this bad
EGM

 

[c9h13no3]

Anyone disagree with these ranges that I have put him on?

QT+ at least, and I think his range is even wider than that.

 

[No Brainer]

QT+ at least, and I think his range is even wider than that.

Seriously? Shoving top pair ok kicker over a re-raise only 10 hands into a tournament?

A couple of things I didnt mention in the OP are that this tournament had only around 40 people entered and after I re-raised him on the turn he basically insta-shoved.

Maybe in a small buy-in tournament online I would agree with you but in the live tournaments that I have played people seem to hold on to their chips early on unless they have a decent hand.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Playing a live tourney tonight and about the 10th hand I get dealt aces in early position. I dont really have any reads on villian other than he is about 30 and has a t-shirt on that he had got from a larger touney in sydney so he must have played a bit before.

Stacks are all approx 20,000
Blinds 200/400

Hero is UTG+1 with
Villian is BB


Hero Raises to 1,200
BB calls


Pot - 2,600
Flop
BB checks, Hero bets 2,000, BB calls



Pot - 6,600
Turn
BB bets 1,600, Hero raises to 5,000, BB raises to 16,000 all in, Hero???

Yea, I'm thinking villian's range is much wider. Heck, he could have ace ten.

 

[dwolfg]

I don't think kk and qq is probable, I think those hands would re-raise preflop. This looks like a set or air to me.

 

[Madsaac]

I don't think kk and qq is probable, I think those hands would re-raise preflop. This looks like a set or air to me.

Set of 2's,7's, 10's or J's possibly. Another 800 for a look at the flop and the chance to make some good money.

qq and kk you would think he would re-raise.

However his last bet is unusual. Intitial bet is small, might suggest a pair and his re-raise may be a bluff? Not sure why he wouldn't think you might just call, to me it looks like your flop bet was a continuation bet that missed the flop. So he's gone from being happy with 1600 to All in....

You have to call.

 

[10crow10]

i would get it in here, if he has a set then GG, also theres no "real" two pair combo's.

 

[jaded848]

Looking at this hand again, the donk bet on the turn is really weird. If he had a set I don't see why he wouldn't check again and then shove after you bet, unless he thought you were just cbetting with two overs. Maybe 55 would play it this way if he put you on two overcards, flatting the flop followed by a bet on the turn for guaranteed value and then a shove when he sees your aggression. I feel like any sets on the flop would check again and give you a chance to fire out. Kings, Queens, and Jacks would have at least check-raised your flop bet I would think.

This doesn't really look like a bluff to me, as you have clearly shown considerable strength and there is no reason for him to believe you would fold. But I could be wrong.

Would A10 really check/call this flop?

Am really curious as to what villain ended up having...

 

[No Brainer]

Sorry for the bump, didn't realise there were new posts in here. Villain turned over one of the hands that I didn't want to see. He had TT for top set on the flop. At the time I was really wondering if it was just me overvaluing my Aces but after thinking about it for a while and posting here I realised that calling was the right play and I was just unlucky that he had me beat.

 

[thepokerkid123]

Pot: 16,600
Remaining stack: 11,800
odds on shove: 2.4:1
Overpair
Nowhere near the money

Never second guess the call.

 

[tomh7795]

Never fold here! there's to many hands your beating. 2.5:1 pot odds also means you should call. I like a turn shove here. A
raise looks like a monster trying to get value. A shove looks like a weak hand trying to buy the pot.

 

[BYucko]

I know this thread's run its course and been thoroughly analyzed and all, but in light of me being bored and having overpairs getting beat a lot lately I want to pose the question: could Hero have folded?

We know the guy isn't a donk because of his shirt advertisement. He recognizes that Hero has a good hand because of his early position raise.

On the flop he checks.
Is that a probable play from JJ-KK as opposed to a valuebet into the original raiser?

Hero bets ~3/4 pot.
This bet takes the pot safely away from most hands. I think villain having AT is improbable given that Hero holds 2 of the aces in the deck and that the guy is good and recognizes most hands that are raised UTG+1 beat AT. JJ-KK calls here because it's a bet that can't really be raised. But what else flat calls a ~3/4 pot flop bet?

On the turn BB leads out for ~1/4 pot.
Why? For JJ-KK, pairs we beat, standard play is to bet a little >1/2 pot, for me at least. No fullsies, flush, straight possibilities and T7, T2, 72 two-pair flop calls are unlikely because they are unlikely calls preflop. A 75 one-gapper, even as mid-pair, I think would have folded to the sizeable flop bet or preflop raise. So 2p is ruled out.

Hero raises to ~3x bet.
I like this raise. It is able to give a lot of information. I think AT folds to this raise in fear of TT-AA. It is also a show of strength. Even so...

BB insta-shoves.
He knows you have a very strong hand from the early position preflop raise, big flop bet, and turn raise. Why does he continue to shove into you? I disagree that this is a bluff spot because air has had a lot of opportunities to fold.

What is a probable holding that hero beats that goes this far into the hand? AK/AQ folds on the flop. JJ-KK does not make such a small turn bet, one that is *obviously* at least going to get called and likely to be raised (based on the larger flop bet size)

A set does check a dry board and call an aggressive bet. A small turn bet is good for value because it is smaller than a possible AK/AQ cbet on the flop so it gets odds to be called. After the raise a shove is an aggressive but not improper play because overpairs are pretty much priced in to call.

Sorry for the long post, but does anyone think Hero could have made an Allen Cunningham hero fold?