$10 NL HE STT: Try to flop a set with 44?

[StealTheButton]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

10

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Everyone loves to hit a set and take someone's stack. This is not however always to cut and dry. This hand is from at least a month ago, so I don't recall anything about it.

We are 3 handed on a 6-max Sit and Go. The villain raises 3x on the button and SB folds. I am holding 44 in the BB. It's about 15% of my stack to call and see a flop. However, the pot is giving me about 2.5 to 1 to call, but I am about 7.5 to 1 to hit a set (this figure is different everywhere). We have to think about effective stack for implied odds. The villains remaining stack is about 4.5 big blinds. If we add this to the pot we are still only getting about 7 to 1. We would love this figure to be much larger- say 15 to 1 to make up for all the times you miss. For me this is an easy fold. I have no problem letting this go and stealing the blinds in one of the next few hands.

You could jam and try to take it down preflop, but all too often you will run into a bigger pair. He may also have 2 overs such as AQ and you will be flipping- if I lose I am crippled.
If you had a larger pair you could call the preflop raise and jam the flop if it looks innocuous.

At this stage in the tournament I am not flat calling many raises at all. But every one has their different styles of play.

 

[fundiver199]

If the effective stack was 20BB or less, then any small pair is usually a rejam in this situation. The 3BB open size is a bit of a turn-off though, since it could indicate a strong hand, he is not going to fold. With that read I would also just fold and live to fight another day.

 

[1KrazyMofo]

with his stack size you could re-jamm? I think all pocket pairs are profitable up to about 25bb?

 

[Poker Orifice]

general rule for set mining... you want effective stacks to be ~15to20x the size of the bet. In weaker fields where we're more likely to get paid off a larger percentage of the time when we do hit our set, we can go marginally lower (10 to 15x)
In this hand it looks like Villain is sitting on 7.5bbs and opens for 40% of their stack.

 

[Ketienne]

I would deninitely rejam in this case and hope to take it down pre-flop.

 

[rock0001]

depends on icm... how many chips does both of villains had? i think you should have shoved preflop and hope villain folds or even if he calls he will most likely have a hand like ak or aq so you will have 51 to 54% of chances to win the hand.

 

[StealTheButton]

Shoot, I posted a photo since I don't have the hand history converter. Let me try again. Ok, it didn't like the file extension. Sorry. I picture is worth a thousand words.

 

[StealTheButton]

Me personally, I don't like jamming with pairs that small. I'd rather have 88 or 99 or better. You can argue I am leaving money on the table, but too often you run into a larger pair. I don't think your fold equity is quite large enough in this spot. Worse players will often make the call with mediocre holdings (even hands like 10 J)and you are flipping. However, with hands like 99 you are ahead A8 and K7s, etc. Guess I'm a rock at heart.

 

[fundiver199]

Against a normal open size from a good player, this is a very profitable re-jam, since you have tons of fold equity. But this guy put in 25% of his stack preflop. No good player would ever do that, and against bad players we are trying to find out, what they do wrong, so we can exploit them. And most of the time what he is saying with this sizing is something like "I have JJ, and I hate them, so please just fold and let me win a very small pot". And obviously if he has that kind of range, we should just follow his wish and fold

 

[Matt_Burns88]

Against a normal open size from a good player, this is a very profitable re-jam, since you have tons of fold equity. But this guy put in 25% of his stack preflop. No good player would ever do that, and against bad players we are trying to find out, what they do wrong, so we can exploit them. And most of the time what he is saying with this sizing is something like "I have JJ, and I hate them, so please just fold and let me win a very small pot". And obviously if he has that kind of range, we should just follow his wish and fold

I agree with all of this. Also, it looks like we are the chipleader on the bubble, but losing this pot would cripple us, which would be a disaster. When you factor in all the above, this becomes an easy fold. That said...if villain continues to make 3x open raises off a 12bb, we need to consider adjusting factor in that he's aggro/reckless idiot.

 

[ElmerS]

Rejamming is the Standard at a 20bb effectieve stack against a open-raise from the BTN.
But because he is 3x opening and that could be representing strong hands you can get away with it.
Personally I would call if you have that read. Just because you have a hand full off equity, but I prefer to jam if he opens a normal range of hands.
The fact that if he calls we are probably flipping is not that big deal. Because we have a fold equity of 30-50% that we would take the chips in the middle and the other one we are flipping for tournament life.
Flipping for tournament life is a breakeven outcome. Not bad

 

[ElmerS]

Rejamming is the Standard at a 20bb effectieve stack against a open-raise from the BTN.
But because he is 3x opening and that could be representing strong hands you can get away with it.
Personally I would call if you have that read. Just because you have a hand full off equity, but I prefer to jam if he opens a normal range of hands.
The fact that if he calls we are probably flipping is not that big deal. Because we have a fold equity of 30-50% that we would take the chips in the middle and the other one we are flipping for tournament life.
Flipping for tournament life is a breakeven outcome. Not bad

If we are close to the bubble this changes drastically.