$1 NLHE STT: call or fold?

[Shred]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/8/6

Hi all

Stats UTG: vpip 26 , pfr 8

IPoker, $0.86 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.


SB: 1,440 (48 bb)
Hero (BB): 1,220 (40.7 bb)
UTG: 1,580 (52.7 bb)
MP: 1,450 (48.3 bb)
CO: 1,530 (51 bb)
BTN: 1,780 (59.3 bb)


Preflop: Hero is BB with 5s 7c
UTG calls 30, MP folds, CO calls 30, BTN calls 30, SB folds, Hero checks


Flop: (135) 8h 2c 6d (4 players)
Hero bets 60, UTG calls 60, CO folds, BTN calls 60


Turn: (315) Jd (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets 90, 2 folds


Results: 315 pot
Final Board: 8h 2c 6d Jd
Hero mucked 5s 7c and lost (-90 net)
UTG mucked and won 315 (225 net)
BTN mucked and lost (-90 net)


call or fold?
thanks.

 

[WiZZiM]

you have enough outs to make a call there, but it's a bit of a crappy draw because of the DD draw and also because a 9x will complete a higher straight, so folding isn't a bad option really. BUt you have the odds and implied odds to make a profitable call and hope to hit.

 

[Shred]

you have enough outs to make a call there, but it's a bit of a crappy draw because of the DD draw and also because a 9x will complete a higher straight, so folding isn't a bad option really. BUt you have the odds and implied odds to make a profitable call and hope to hit.

I have only 20% to win. My solution - fold.

 

[joe777]

I agree with folding this one unless it open ended straight flush draw.

 

[victory22422]

In my opinion its definitly fold, there are few chances on winning and the bet is too big.

 

[dnegsisabadreg]

I have only 20% to win. My solution - fold.

You only have ~20% chance of making your straight, but the bet is so small that you're getting better than 4 to 1. You need ~22% equity to call profitably based on direct odds, so you almost have enough to call directly. Add in implied odds of getting an extra bet on the river if you hit, and I think this is a definite call.

 

[Fase]

20% it not a lot should fold and comeback with better hand

 

[beger80]

I feel a call is the better play here, his utg limp gives me the feeling that he has a range polarized to small pairs that hit this board or possibly big pairs hoping to find a three bet spot. that all leads me to believe that both ends of your draw are live and will likely be able to get at least one bet in on the river if you get there. getting 4 to 1 and closing the action with the possibility of getting much more on a favorable river says call to me. being so early I the tournament and still leaving you with 30+ BB if you miss makes the fold the worst option to me.

 

[dnegsisabadreg]

... and the bet is too big.

... but the bet is so small ...

LOL

The bet is indisputably a small bet. Look at the size of the pot. He's betting 90 into a pot of 315, that's only a little more than 25% of the pot size.

The bet is asking you to risk 3 bb to win a pot of 13.5 bb, I don't see how anyone could consider that a large bet.