$1 NLHE: JJ Bad Fold Here?

[ph_il]

$1 NL HE: JJ Bad Fold Here?

full tilt poker Game #22919975235: The Ferguson (175676988), Table 30 - 1000/2000 Ante 250 - No Limit Hold'em - 04:52:14 ET - 2010/08/08
Seat 1: strog17 (38,593)
Seat 2: Chris Blacker (30,395)
Seat 3: Philthy (10,567)
Seat 4: manormachine13 (13,351)
Seat 6: WasteYourFace (54,086)
Seat 7: note4jason (26,019)
Seat 8: stacks1977 (23,200)
Seat 9: wheremeow (18,198)

...One of the nittiest players on the table. At one point was at ~2K stack with blinds at 800/1600 w/ antes. Have seen only 3 shoves from this player out of 250+ hands even while milking super short stack. Also, he had just doubled up the hand before with KK.

strog17 antes 250
Chris Blacker antes 250
Philthy antes 250
manormachine13 antes 250
WasteYourFace antes 250
note4jason antes 250
stacks1977 antes 250
wheremeow antes 250
Chris Blacker posts the small blind of 1,000
Philthy posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Philthy [Jc Jd]

...I'm ready to get my stack in the middle...

manormachine13 has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy: vnh
manormachine13 raises to 13,101, and is all in
WasteYourFace calls 13,101
note4jason folds
stacks1977 folds
wheremeow has 15 seconds left to act
wheremeow has requested TIME
wheremeow raises to 17,948, and is all in

...Augh! Given how nitty he has been, I just dont see him shoving here with a large range of hands to isolate. Especially after just doubling up the hand before. He could possibly shove with AKs here, but I'm putting him on QQ+

strog17 folds
Chris Blacker folds
Philthy folds

...Mistake?

WasteYourFace calls 4,847
wheremeow shows [Qc Qd]
manormachine13 shows [Ac Ts]
WasteYourFace shows [Qh As]
*** FLOP *** [7h Js Td] ...OMG!
hiratatwin1 sits down
*** TURN *** [7h Js Td] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [7h Js Td 7d] [4c]
wheremeow shows two pair, Queens and Sevens
WasteYourFace shows a pair of Sevens
wheremeow wins the side pot (9,694) with two pair, Queens and Sevens
manormachine13 shows two pair, Tens and Sevens
wheremeow wins the main pot (44,303) with two pair, Queens and Sevens
Philthy: omg.
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 53,997 Main pot 44,303. Side pot 9,694. | Rake 0
Board: [7h Js Td 7d 4c]
Seat 1: strog17 (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Chris Blacker (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Philthy (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: manormachine13 showed [Ac Ts] and lost with two pair, Tens and Sevens
Seat 6: WasteYourFace showed [Qh As] and lost with a pair of Sevens
Seat 7: note4jason folded before the Flop
Seat 8: stacks1977 folded before the Flop
Seat 9: wheremeow showed [Qc Qd] and won (53,997) with two pair, Queens and Sevens

...Now, I'm not being result oriented. I just think it sucks that I wouldve made best hand, but I know that a J isn't falling a lot of the time there. So, giving my stack size, in the long run, is the right play to make if I'm 100% positive I'm beat here? Oh should this be a call no matter what?

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

This was definitely a correct fold.
In this spot you are almost certainly dominated by one or more hands. The showdown even proves this as you would have been up against QQ and the odds that you hit your trips simply weren't worth the investment.

Even QQ or AK is a tricky call here, though easier in a cash game.

 

[Rldetheflop]

wow given your reads this is a tough spot. I just cant see folding here though. Your M is >2 and we have JJ.


after looking at the hand again Its even tougher than I thought. thought it was just a shove and a call. I didnt see the reshove by the nit. wow very tough almost surely crushed but M is so low and you have a hand.

 

[ph_il]

wow given your reads this is a tough spot. I just cant see folding here though. Your M is >2 and we have JJ.


after looking at the hand again Its even tougher than I thought. thought it was just a shove and a call. I didnt see the reshove by the nit. wow very tough almost surely crushed but M is so low and you have a hand.

Yeah, this made it tough for me. I get a hand that in almost every other scenario, I'm happy to get it in with an M so low. Except when facing a 3-shove by a super nit (not just a call) I have to think my hand is crushed at this point. So, I'm calling for my tournament life hoping to get lucky against a hand(s) that beat me....

I think my thinking was that I can still fold here and be prepared to shove a huge range of hands from SB/Button with ~8.5K stack. It's not a lot, but there are only a few big stacks at the table and I may still just have enough to pick up the blinds ~5K with a well timed shove.

 

[ukaliks]

With 1000/2000 blinds and a 250 ante from 9 players, the total pot = 5250.
Ur stack is 10,500. Thats a M of 2.
Yes wheremeow (QQ) who shoved is tight and u got his range right AK/QQ+.
But with our M any low any pair to me that is TT+ against the tight villan is worth a shot and stick the rest of ur stack in.
U cant afford to fold anymore. This is ur best chance to chip up even if u think villan has AA.
Jus my opinon but im not foldin JJ when my M=2.

 

[Mr Whatever]

it comes down to ur personality and what ur comfortable about. is it worth throwing all caution in the wind and going with a inferior pair for ur tourn life or are u comfortable playing smallstack poker?

If u cant play smallstack poker then u should go for it. But the odds of winning dwindle with the more players involved in the hand. The classical example of aa all in early position with numerous callers. . . the value of the pair goes down too much.

In late position like u were in that hand, its not really that hard a decision to me.

Its a fold, because the way u described the hand. ur dominated with a higher pair or ur a coin flip to some1 with overs.

im awful with poker math and odds. I think ur like a 30-40% fav with 3 callers with jj and just 2 having overcards ie kq and ace ten, so ur not that great. Just because u have jj doesn’t mean ur in great shape.

And those odds are raw without any knowledge of what ur opponents might be holding. Theyd be a lot worse if u give em credit for the hand ranges ur describing.

U really have to put more on what u think ur opponent has rather than to what ur holding in that instance I think.

Ur already the bb, so uv paid for 1 more time around basically and paying the sb isn’t really going to change ur situation, so ur probably better off going 1 more time around.

I personally would rather have kx or ax going all in than an inferior made pair like jacks.

Good posting. This scenario comes up a lot. Some1 came up with a similar scenario a few weeks ago involving 5s but was in a much earlier position than u.

I enjoy thinking about these situations, its good drill exercises. so when I get into em Ive reasoned it out beforehand and know what Im doing in that instance.

Thanks for the positing.

 

[No Brainer]

Very tricky spot. Looking at stack sizes you should be calling here every time but with the reads that you have I think we can turn this one around.

You are facing some big action from some super tight players so you are sure that you are against at least one over pair. This puts us down to 20% or less as there are already three others in the hand. If we wait one or two hands and even call a shove/raise from one player while holding something like J8o, we are 30% against a range of 66+, A5s+, ATo+ and any broadway.

I think therefore we should fold this but be prepared to shove or call with a super wide range in the next two hands. (Shoving any two if it gets folded to us)

 

[ph_il]

Very tricky spot. Looking at stack sizes you should be calling here every time but with the reads that you have I think we can turn this one around.

You are facing some big action from some super tight players so you are sure that you are against at least one over pair. This puts us down to 20% or less as there are already three others in the hand. If we wait one or two hands and even call a shove/raise from one player while holding something like J8o, we are 30% against a range of 66+, A5s+, ATo+ and any broadway.

I think therefore we should fold this but be prepared to shove or call with a super wide range in the next two hands. (Shoving any two if it gets folded to us)

This is exactly my thinking during this hand. If meow didn't reshove and just called or folded, I would be happy to get my money in. Being as tight as he is, I can see him calling with mid pairs, A10+, and playing it safe against a non-favorable board.

I think this is probably one of the hardest decisions I had to make. I think almost 99% of the time, I'm happy to get my money here but against a player who I have such a strong read on, that plays super solid/basic and didn't make any fancy moves-I have to reevaluate here.

Afterwards, I was ready to get my money in the middle with a wide range of hands. Think I picked up a pot uncontested, but was too far down in chips to make a difference and busted out soon after.

I think I made a good fold based on my reads. Mathematically and given stack sizes, maybe I should take more risk in this spot...

 

[atownshend]

Call or not-call

You are definitly behind here. Even though you may have only had 20-30% odds here, a win would have at least trippled up leaving you in a position to get back in the tournament. The call could have been worth it.