Let's go one step further in CJ's analysis using ICM calculators. I always like to input this information into a table so it's easier to see how patterns develop.
So what are our realistic options here? and likely outcomes?
Realistic options include:-
Shoving Preflop.
Checking the BB and folding Bad flops.
Checking the BB and stabbing good flops.
Raising to roughly 800 and shoving the flop.
Most likely outcomes usually include the Button here. He is the guy i'm most concerned about. The Small blind has a decent stack and is merely completing the SB, so the times he may be trapping are not worth worrying about, and most players should be very risk averse, so i'm not totally concerned with him calling to big action either. So let's focus on the button, who opened this pot with his limp.
So below I've set-up an table showing the various situations and outcomes we are presented with. Having to use some abbreviations which are:-
ShBFLD - Where we shove preflop and they both fold.
CFBW - Check/fold bad flops.
CSFW - Check/stab Flop and win.
CSFL - Check/stab flop and lose.
RSFW - Raise/shove flop and win.
RSFL - Raise/shove flop and lose when called.
So without taking the SB into the equation too much here, we should also recognize that he may just call us here. Which is going to really hurt us to get it in preflop agaisnt him. It's basically risking a lot, to gain a little, so there has to be a better option than just shoving because "We have a good hand" or "we have the chip lead".
Pre-flop and Postflop
Our options are between checking and raising here.
Checking allows us to keep the pot small with a relatively weak hand, considering our stack position (get more into that shortly). Checking allows us to make a stab bet on a lot of flops, hoping to kind of squeeze the button in between the SB, who is likely to fold a lot of flops. We have the added problem though of having the BTN flat call us, in which case we're usually having to dump our hand on the turn, depending on the flop. Perhaps betting smaller on the flop so we can bet the turn wouldn't be a bad option to counter "floaters". The advantage here is we can Stab roughly 400 on the flop and pick up the same amount of chips with far less risk.
Raising allows us to take down the pot preflop, without all of the risk. If the button flat calls a raise of 800, then he has a pot sized bet left, and we can shove many flops that don't hit his limping range. Are there any other options as to raise sizing here? 1000? 1200? At what point are we committed to calling the buttons shove, i feel a raise of around 800 is about right, anything smaller and we get called too much, any larger, we're nearly committed and also waste chips if we have to fold.
What about raise/calling the button? Players tend to do stupid things, perhaps players at this level will limp/shove with worse? I'd say overall that if he limp/shoves, he'd have to have a pretty strong range that pocket 8's doesn't fare too well against, so i think this option is a no go.
So let's make a few assumptions about his limp/calling range. Let's say, from limited OP reads, he's limping around 40% of hands, he's likely not continuing with hands like j9s and such(though possible). He's likely calling with hands he seems are decent, but not worth shoving all in. So lets come up with that range, i'll let you guys come up with that. I'd suspect players would flat call with lots of pairs and weaker aces, KQ's KTs. those types of hands. Hands that want to continue but are not willing to shove all in with. We can probably rule out AA - QQ to some degree as they are likely shoving over with those hands a fair % of the time.
Ok so would be considered a good/bad flop for our hand to shove? I'd say most flops with aces would be bad flops for us to shove on, kings too, but i doubt he has as many combinations of kings in his range than he would have aces.
One issue we have also is that if he calls preflop, how often will he call postflop? This is kind of an unknown, i suspect he's not calling too often unless he hits the board, so that leaves hands like 55-AA and also hands like AJ+ i'd expect to see calls with, even if they miss.
Also, the SB is a limpy type of player, so he may just flat call our raise after the button calls or folds, putting us in interesting decision trees.
If button and SB call, we're now in a 3 way pot, and most likely not going to be able to shove flops anymore. If the button folds and SB calls, we are now in position, but the pot is huge and we can no longer just shove the flop.
If button calls and SB folds, we now get to shove the flop and put the last bet in, i like that.
Our table position
It's one of considerable strength. We are first in chips, and obviously have the most equity going into the hand. We also have the most equity to lose, and the least to gain. Having the big chip stack isn't a licence to try and knock people out, it's not your responsibility. It should be your aim to do whatever is in your best interests. Ours should be to use controlled aggression. Our aim really should be to cash in this SNG, while maintaining our stack for ITM play. At blinds this low, it's going to be rare we can really start bullying players a lot, so the option is to maintain our stack while chipping away with late position raising, or shoving BVB. As the blinds go up, this position could change.
Conclusions?
Well overall I feel that checking and stabbing a lot of flops is going to be the best play for us overall. It's the least risky play, and we pick up the same amount of equity without risking so much.
We can also probably put this all into a mathematical equation, This isn't something i'm really familiar with doing, i prefer to just look over things like this logically and try to judge what the best play is. Hopefully guys like C9 can come in here and critique this, and maybe help with some math equations (I'm sure he gets a hard on any time math is in a tournament thread
)
Please feel free to correct my logic or any flaws you see. Read over the tables i've provided and read over what it's telling us. I also expect if you disagree with any points made that you provide proof or logic behind what you are saying, we're all here to learn, and i hope to start learning more about poker from this forum by creating posts similar to this in the future and having interesting and informative discussion.
(Instead of basic one liners, if i wanted that, i'd go to 2+2)
