$1.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Aces on a coordinated board. Call or fold?

[tomasdig]

Hey guys. I'm at this 18 player sitngo, final table 4 places paid, 8-handed. Villain's stats are 39/9, although I only have 33 hands on him. He's been very aggressive post flop but hasn't shown any hand down.


pokerstars - 80/160 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP: 1,882 (11.8 bb)
Hero (MP+1): 6,379 (39.9 bb)
CO: 1,484 (9.3 bb)
BTN: 2,191 (13.7 bb)
SB: 3,776 (23.6 bb)
BB: 4,446 (27.8 bb)
UTG: 4,134 (25.8 bb)
UTG+1: 2,708 (16.9 bb)

8 players post ante of 20, SB posts 80, BB posts 160

Pre Flop: (pot: 400) Hero has
3 folds, Hero raises to 400, 3 folds, BB calls 240

Flop: (1,040, 2 players)
BB bets 1,040, Hero calls 1,040

Turn: (3,120, 2 players)
BB bets 1,600, Hero calls 1,600

River: (6,320, 2 players)
BB bets 1,386 and is all-in, Hero ???

It might be a dumb question, since I'm getting almost 6:1 odds and I already put almost half my stack in there, but it's a very coordinated and low board giving Villain range advantage. How often do you guys think I'm good here? Certainly more tan 15% which is what I need to break even, but if I'm wrong I'll be left with a 12 BB stack.

Am I overvaluing aces here by calling down?

Would you have taken a different line against an overly aggro Villain of whom you don't know too much about? Perhaps I should've shoved on the turn?

Let me know what you think. Thanks!

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard raise of course.

Flop
Its a very bad flop for AA and a very bad action with that pot sized donk bet. But that being said I think, bad players will often take that line to "protect" some kind of made hand, which could be worse than yours. So I cant really get away on the flop and especially not against someone, who has "been very aggressive postflop".

You also need to think ahead, and since there is going to be less than a pot sized bet left and few turn cards, that will make your decision easier, I might actually just jam it in now. He is probably not doing this pot sized donk bet with pure air, so whatever he has, there is a good chance, he will call it off. And then you just roll the dice and hope to get lucky. Against a more tight or passive player I would at least consider to simply let this one go though.

Turn
As played this was one of the best cards, that could possibly have popped. No draws completed, you now beat 87, and 86, 76, 66 all became less likely. So if you called flop, it makes no sense to fold now. And since he have so little behind, it also makes no sense to just call. He is not going to bluff you on the river with his last few chips. So just get it in now and be done, if you did not get it in on the flop.

 

[Collin Moshman]

The river is a definite call; you beat both bluffs (busted draws) and hands he can be value-betting like A8. Given the odds, it would for sure be a mistake to fold at this point!

I also agree with Fundiver about jamming flop. The pot is huge and our hand is too strong to fold against a loose opponent. So by shoving we either win immediately which is great on this flop, or get it in with decent equity against a range that includes plenty of strong one pair hands as well as draws (9X and pair + draw hands).

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I agree mostly with guys, pre flop raise is standard. I think on this stack we can go allin on the flop or on the turn, because it is very rarely situation when opponent hit something better than one pair, so on the flop we have usually the best hand. The turn card for me seems to be safe and I think that on the turn it is the last card when we have to go allin, because opponent is commited with a pot. Both of you will go allin. The river card - for me river card is also safe, the river change nothing, so on this board we have to call and besides we have to call because opponent is allin and this allin is less than 1/4 of the pot. So I think that on the river it is worth to risk. GL

 

[300HPGOD]

With this effective stack size, I am never calling the flop. I am either jamming it or folding and cant imagine folding it here. I know you are not supposed to think this way but my mindset would be "if they have it, they have" and I would just go with my aces. They could have a straight although I think they would not lead out pot here and be getting a lot of folds against other types of hands. a straight would be a hand they dont have to protect so I think it is two pair at worst for us and could be some huge semi bluff as well.

As far as the river goes as played this is a call. You are beating 78 now and I think straights would not tend to play the hand this way so we could be going against a boat but at this price, its a call.

 

[fundiver199]

I agree with 300HPGOD, that its somewhat unlikely, a straight would make this big donk bet. The hands, hero is most likely to be behind to, are sets and two pair. And for sure a player like this can have all the two pair including offsuit combos. However its not the end of the world to get it in on the flop with an overpair against two pair, since we have around 28% equity. And given the fact he can also show up with 8X, 9X, and god knows what else, jamming is high variance, but it should be +EV in the long run.

 

[erik_lima]

I don't like the call on flop. I prefer reraise. His betpot I think it's much more a bluff/semibluff or he wants to protect his hand and end the hand on this street.

As played, after call flop, on the turn, I would reraise all in.

 

[tomasdig]

Hey everybody. After all your comments I realize yes, I absolutely should've shoved on the turn at the latest, and maybe even on the flop. I guess I didn't want to chase away any bluffs he might have.

He showed Kc4c, absolute air. But a lot of his range on this line is going to be 8x and 3x, which clearly would've called a jam on the turn. Thanks everyone.

 

[fundiver199]

If his range is that wide, you obviously can not fold at any point, and your line happened to be perfect. However it is also worth considering, what might have happened, if the turn was a scary card like a 4, 5, 9 or T, and he blasted all in. He might have gotten away with his bluff then, so jamming the flop not only deny his 18% equity, it also protects you from making a bad fold later. Plus it might shot down this kind of action in future hands and put him on tilt.

Look at it this way: If you are bluffing, would you rather, that your opponent raise or just call? The answer is, you would rather, that he just call, because then you get to see the next card and decide, what to do. If he raise however, you need to fold, unless you have some substantial equity (semi-bluff). And whatever our opponent will not want us to do, is usually, what we should do.

 

[eetenor]

Hey guys. I'm at this 18 player sitngo, final table 4 places paid, 8-handed. Villain's stats are 39/9, although I only have 33 hands on him. He's been very aggressive post flop but hasn't shown any hand down.


PokerStars - 80/160 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP: 1,882 (11.8 bb)
Hero (MP+1): 6,379 (39.9 bb)
CO: 1,484 (9.3 bb)
BTN: 2,191 (13.7 bb)
SB: 3,776 (23.6 bb)
BB: 4,446 (27.8 bb)
UTG: 4,134 (25.8 bb)
UTG+1: 2,708 (16.9 bb)

8 players post ante of 20, SB posts 80, BB posts 160

Pre Flop: (pot: 400) Hero has
3 folds, Hero raises to 400, 3 folds, BB calls 240

Flop: (1,040, 2 players)
BB bets 1,040, Hero calls 1,040

Turn: (3,120, 2 players)
BB bets 1,600, Hero calls 1,600

River: (6,320, 2 players)
BB bets 1,386 and is all-in, Hero ???

It might be a dumb question, since I'm getting almost 6:1 odds and I already put almost half my stack in there, but it's a very coordinated and low board giving Villain range advantage. How often do you guys think I'm good here? Certainly more tan 15% which is what I need to break even, but if I'm wrong I'll be left with a 12 BB stack.

Am I overvaluing aces here by calling down?

Would you have taken a different line against an overly aggro Villain of whom you don't know too much about? Perhaps I should've shoved on the turn?

Let me know what you think. Thanks!

Thank U 4 Posting

This is a learning opportunity regarding ranging V-illain's based on actions.

We know there are 3 basic V ranges on the flop based on bet sizing and player pool.

1 Villain has one pair trying to get a fold.

2 Villain has 2 pair and is ok with a fold or call.

3 Villain has a draw possibly pair plus draw such as 98

It is less likely the V has a stronger hand than this but is possible.

We call flop because it could be any of these 3 options but when we do we should be aware of the SPR we are creating. SPR=Stack to Pot Ratio

Stack =V stack as that is the effective stack.
V stack after flop bet is $2986 when we call Pot is 3360 SPR is less than 1 after we call.

An important skill to have before making this call on the flop is to have a strategy for what we do with an SPR of 1 on the turn.

One such strategy would be fold or shove based on whether the turn card improved our hand in relation to our V's suspected range.

Assuming the above 3 range definitions are correct did the 6 improve our hand?

1 We are still ahead of all one pair hands that did not include a 6.

2 We just moved a head of top 2 pair.

3 The one pair hands with a draw did not improve.

Therefore our turn decision based on SPR and our reads of the V defining their ranges by leading and sizing on the flop would be to go all-in at that moment.

Further the V has pot committed themselves with their turn bet so we need not call and see what happens.

This is just one strategy we can employ in this spot but the key is to use the data that is available to us.

Data Point 1 what ranges do our V lead out pot bet sizing in this spot most often?

Data Point 2 what actions do we take when faced with a 1 SPR decision?

Hope this helps

 

[7CardKillR]

with all the rejam sized stacks behind your probably getting good EV to Jam your AA pre. probably best to put it on on the flop if you dont.

 

[fundiver199]

with all the rejam sized stacks behind your probably getting good EV to Jam your AA pre.

In another thread you shared a solver result for BNT action with 20BB effective, and the hands, the solver had as open jams, were mostly those, that play very poorly postflop, like small pairs and some bad aces. With AA we want to induce aggression from our opponents, and this is why, the solver had AA as a partical limp and partial call. In this spot I would just make a standard open, like Hero did, and pray for someone to put in a 3-bet.

The only situation, where open jamming AA might be better, is, if the players in the blinds are huge fish and just cant fold. If we can get one of them to put in 25BB preflop with KJo or 44 as a call, because they have this urge to be the table sheriff, then sure why not. But even in a 1,5$ SnG very few players are that bad.

 

[1player2]

Hey guys. I'm at this 18 player sitngo, final table 4 places paid, 8-handed. Villain's stats are 39/9, although I only have 33 hands on him. He's been very aggressive post flop but hasn't shown any hand down.


PokerStars - 80/160 Ante 20 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

MP: 1,882 (11.8 bb)
Hero (MP+1): 6,379 (39.9 bb)
CO: 1,484 (9.3 bb)
BTN: 2,191 (13.7 bb)
SB: 3,776 (23.6 bb)
BB: 4,446 (27.8 bb)
UTG: 4,134 (25.8 bb)
UTG+1: 2,708 (16.9 bb)

8 players post ante of 20, SB posts 80, BB posts 160

Pre Flop: (pot: 400) Hero has
3 folds, Hero raises to 400, 3 folds, BB calls 240

Flop: (1,040, 2 players)
BB bets 1,040, Hero calls 1,040

Turn: (3,120, 2 players)
BB bets 1,600, Hero calls 1,600

River: (6,320, 2 players)
BB bets 1,386 and is all-in, Hero ???

It might be a dumb question, since I'm getting almost 6:1 odds and I already put almost half my stack in there, but it's a very coordinated and low board giving Villain range advantage. How often do you guys think I'm good here? Certainly more tan 15% which is what I need to break even, but if I'm wrong I'll be left with a 12 BB stack.

Am I overvaluing aces here by calling down?

Would you have taken a different line against an overly aggro Villain of whom you don't know too much about? Perhaps I should've shoved on the turn?

Let me know what you think. Thanks!

Hello,


With villian playing agressive I think you just have to call and hope he didn't get lucky and hit a straight. Probably would play like this with any pair because villian would assume aces or kings jams all in over his pot size bet after flop. When you elect to call he probably assumes you have Ax and continues on a board that favor s his range. I suggest a call.