$1.20 NLHE STT: TPFD-fold/call

[Clambake420]

From the hands ive seen villain play, he usually does not bluff with air so he definitely has a hand here. My initial read after he limped PF was a weak ace or pp. I don't think his raise on the flop is ever a bluff, possibly a semi-bluff but doubtful. Sticking to my original read i have to put him on a set here. But im getting ok odds to spike a heart. So the turn comes and i don't spike a heart but an ace instead. Now he shoves into me on the ace. The board is pretty wet so its likely to be a protection shove. Now do i fold here or call. I don't want to go into the bubble as the short stack so i feel i need to take risks now to build my stack before the bubble, but is this a spot to be doing so. Ive already put in about half my stack. And if i stick by my read here i know ill need a heart to win the hand which im only about 18% to do so.


pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.2 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t4760)
UTG (t3060)
Hero (MP) (t1770)
Button (t1875)
SB (t2035)

Hero's M: 23.60

Preflop: Hero is MP with

,

UTG calls t50, Hero bets t150, 2 folds, BB calls t100, UTG calls t100

Flop: (t475)

,

,

(3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets t250, 1 fold, UTG raises to t600, Hero calls t350

Turn: (t1675)

(2 players)
UTG bets t2310 (All-In), Hero ?

 

[cjatud2012]

Couple of decisions to look at here:

1) not digging the raise pre. With a limper already in the pot, we're not likely to take down the pot pre, and I wouldn't really consider your raise for value either. So I think it's a muck.

2) now on the flop, we c-bet and get check/raised. I'm tempted to say we could just check it back here, but I think that's being results oriented. The bet is probably good.

3) So, after we get check/raised, he's probably not folding often, if ever, if we were to shove. However, against his range of sets, two pair, and one pairs, we have about 40% win odds, and it would go up if we add in flush draws too, which we're crushing. So I like a push I think.

4) on the turn he shoves, we have maybe half a pot-sized bet left? So when he shoves we're actually getting about 3:1 on a call, and our equity is a ton better than that once we spike the ace, it's like 60%+. Mandatory call I'd say.

 

[Clambake420]

So folding pre was my best move. What if utg folds is a raise better in that spot or still a fold. I probably got myself in a hairy situation playing it the way I choose.

 

[WiZZiM]

If the UTG folds then we can open it. But after he limps, he no longer has a random hand. He most likely has a weak hand, but 150 is not enough to isolate this guy, and you will likely get called by the bigger stacked players behind you. So basically your creating a large pot with a marginal hand, and since we whiff the flop a lot of the time, we're going to get floated a lot, and then we have no idea what to do on the turn. Best to just muck it pre-flop

 

[Clambake420]

Awesome stuff, thanks dudes. Might of misplayed the hand but my read was right the whole time.. turns out he did have a set.

 

[ManicLombax]

I think at a full table I'd definitely agree, let go of A8s with a limper. 5 handed I think it might be playable, though I'd probably raise more with the limper, probably 200 or so. Nice flop for a semi-bluff c-bet, but I'd bet a little more here too, maybe 350-400 (though obviously that wouldn't have worked with him holding a set). On the turn, you're getting more than 2.6 to 1 odds to call, so you only need about 27% equity (not counting the ICM effect, so you probably need a little more). If you're sure he has a set, you're not getting the right odds and you have to fold. I don't think you can be sure of that though. If he has KJ, for example, you actually have 36% equity, since any 8,6 or A will give you a better 2 pair. At a $1 tourney he could also be spaz-shoving with something like KQ, when an overcard comes to what was top pair for him. Overall I think there are enough options besides the set to make it a call.

 

[ljove]

I don like your preflop play.You could limp preflop.If you wanna bet,bet stronger.This is fold on the turn or chasing for flush